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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · Pangu-Weather (IFS init) · lead day 0

KOKC · pangu_ifs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d3 2 QC4.91 [3.93, 5.97]0.70-4.91 [-5.97, -3.93]4.98 [3.93, 5.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d3 2 QC4.91 [3.93, 5.97]0.70-4.91 [-5.97, -3.93]4.98 [3.93, 5.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d3 2 QC4.91 [3.93, 5.97]0.70-4.91 [-5.97, -3.93]4.98 [3.93, 5.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall3 2 QC4.91 [3.93, 5.97]0.70-4.91 [-5.97, -3.93]4.98 [3.93, 5.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d3 2 QC4.84 [3.71, 6.13]0.86-4.84 [-6.13, -3.71]4.94 [3.71, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d3 2 QC4.84 [3.71, 6.13]0.86-4.84 [-6.13, -3.71]4.94 [3.71, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d3 2 QC4.84 [3.71, 6.13]0.86-4.84 [-6.13, -3.71]4.94 [3.71, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall3 2 QC4.84 [3.71, 6.13]0.86-4.84 [-6.13, -3.71]4.94 [3.71, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d3 2 QC3.57 [1.36, 4.68]2.68+2.67 [-1.36, 4.68]4.02 [1.36, 4.83]0% [0%, 0%]33%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d3 2 QC3.57 [1.36, 4.68]2.68+2.67 [-1.36, 4.68]4.02 [1.36, 4.83]0% [0%, 0%]33%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d3 2 QC3.57 [1.36, 4.68]2.68+2.67 [-1.36, 4.68]4.02 [1.36, 4.83]0% [0%, 0%]33%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall3 2 QC3.57 [1.36, 4.68]2.68+2.67 [-1.36, 4.68]4.02 [1.36, 4.83]0% [0%, 0%]33%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d3 2 QC3.77 [1.54, 4.88]2.85+2.74 [-1.54, 4.88]4.20 [1.54, 5.03]0% [0%, 0%]33%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d3 2 QC3.77 [1.54, 4.88]2.85+2.74 [-1.54, 4.88]4.20 [1.54, 5.03]0% [0%, 0%]33%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d3 2 QC3.77 [1.54, 4.88]2.85+2.74 [-1.54, 4.88]4.20 [1.54, 5.03]0% [0%, 0%]33%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall3 2 QC3.77 [1.54, 4.88]2.85+2.74 [-1.54, 4.88]4.20 [1.54, 5.03]0% [0%, 0%]33%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KOKC, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-28: -5.97 °F2026-08-29: -4.84 °F2026-08-30: -3.93 °F2026-08-282026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (3 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.93
2026-08-29-4.84
2026-08-28-5.97

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KOKC, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.84 · P90 |e| 5.74 °F-100+10 °Fn = 3 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0834.91 -4.91

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 3
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 3

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 3 +1.52 [0.33, 2.61] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -0.77 [-1.29, -0.24] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -1.61 [-2.21, -1.31] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.50 [-1.99, -1.01] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -1.70 [-2.48, -0.38] yes
NCEP GFS 3 +4.08 [3.58, 4.81] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -1.35 [-1.82, -0.89] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 3 -1.95 [-2.28, -1.79] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 3 +0.26 [-0.44, 1.20] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +0.83 [0.46, 1.21] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC pangu_ifs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/pangu_ifs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model pangu_ifs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/pangu_ifs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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