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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 0

KOKC · aifs_single · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 2 QC3.58 [2.73, 4.50]1.77-3.55 [-4.46, -2.72]4.28 [3.11, 5.38]10% [3%, 17%]27%37%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 2 QC3.58 [2.53, 4.51]1.77-3.55 [-4.49, -2.52]4.28 [2.95, 5.37]10% [3%, 15%]27%37%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 2 QC3.58 [2.58, 4.55]1.77-3.55 [-4.51, -2.58]4.28 [2.94, 5.40]10% [0%, 15%]27%37%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 2 QC3.58 [2.46, 4.63]1.77-3.55 [-4.60, -2.45]4.28 [2.81, 5.52]10% [0%, 15%]27%37%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 2 QC3.59 [2.63, 4.69]1.84-3.55 [-4.66, -2.61]4.35 [3.00, 5.65]10% [3%, 17%]27%40%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 2 QC3.59 [2.45, 4.71]1.84-3.55 [-4.68, -2.44]4.35 [2.83, 5.61]10% [3%, 15%]27%40%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 2 QC3.59 [2.47, 4.69]1.84-3.55 [-4.64, -2.46]4.35 [2.80, 5.65]10% [0%, 15%]27%40%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 2 QC3.59 [2.42, 4.85]1.84-3.55 [-4.79, -2.41]4.35 [2.71, 5.78]10% [0%, 15%]27%40%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 2 QC2.87 [1.77, 4.19]2.17+2.55 [1.29, 4.06]3.66 [2.35, 4.91]23% [10%, 37%]43%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 2 QC2.87 [1.69, 4.50]2.17+2.55 [1.15, 4.43]3.66 [2.26, 5.10]23% [6%, 38%]43%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 2 QC2.87 [1.63, 4.41]2.17+2.55 [1.11, 4.27]3.66 [2.21, 5.04]23% [7%, 40%]43%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 2 QC2.87 [1.67, 4.44]2.17+2.55 [1.17, 4.33]3.66 [2.27, 5.06]23% [7%, 40%]43%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 2 QC2.97 [1.83, 4.30]2.25+2.59 [1.22, 4.16]3.75 [2.40, 5.02]20% [7%, 37%]43%53%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 2 QC2.97 [1.76, 4.62]2.25+2.59 [1.01, 4.57]3.75 [2.30, 5.20]20% [4%, 37%]43%53%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 2 QC2.97 [1.67, 4.49]2.25+2.59 [1.02, 4.40]3.75 [2.22, 5.14]20% [3%, 39%]43%53%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 2 QC2.97 [1.67, 4.57]2.25+2.59 [1.04, 4.45]3.75 [2.26, 5.21]20% [4%, 38%]43%53%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -1.53 °F2026-08-02: -1.13 °F2026-08-03: -1.33 °F2026-08-04: -3.63 °F2026-08-05: -3.62 °F2026-08-06: -3.12 °F2026-08-07: +0.06 °F2026-08-08: -5.23 °F2026-08-09: -3.29 °F2026-08-10: -2.93 °F2026-08-11: -1.62 °F2026-08-12: -1.71 °F2026-08-13: -4.24 °F2026-08-14: -4.86 °F2026-08-15: -3.16 °F2026-08-16: -3.47 °F2026-08-17: -4.25 °F2026-08-18: -4.73 °F2026-08-19: +0.46 °F2026-08-20: -8.63 °F2026-08-21: -2.08 °F2026-08-22: -2.34 °F2026-08-23: -5.44 °F2026-08-24: -7.68 °F2026-08-25: -9.88 °F2026-08-26: -0 °F2026-08-27: -6.88 °F2026-08-28: -3.35 °F2026-08-29: -3.24 °F2026-08-30: -3.6 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.60
2026-08-29-3.24
2026-08-28-3.35
2026-08-27-6.88
2026-08-26-0.00
2026-08-25-9.88
2026-08-24-7.68
2026-08-23-5.44
2026-08-22-2.34
2026-08-21-2.08
2026-08-20-8.63
2026-08-19+0.46
2026-08-18-4.73
2026-08-17-4.25
2026-08-16-3.47
2026-08-15-3.16
2026-08-14-4.86
2026-08-13-4.24
2026-08-12-1.71
2026-08-11-1.62
2026-08-10-2.93
2026-08-09-3.29
2026-08-08-5.23
2026-08-07+0.06
2026-08-06-3.12
2026-08-05-3.62
2026-08-04-3.63
2026-08-03-1.33
2026-08-02-1.13
2026-08-01-1.53

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 9 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.32 · P90 |e| 6.96 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.009
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08303.58 -3.55

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -1.73 [-1.84, -1.62] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -3.13 [-4.02, -2.54] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -2.47 [-2.62, -2.32] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -3.22 [-3.43, -2.81] yes
NCEP GFS 30 +1.09 [-0.13, 2.38] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -2.32 [-2.49, -2.15] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -2.79 [-3.58, -1.94] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 +0.24 [-1.17, 1.36] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -0.14 [-0.40, 0.13] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -1.52 [-2.61, -0.33] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC aifs_single lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model aifs_single, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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