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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 2 QC3.70 [3.25, 4.17]2.18-2.99 [-4.15, -1.79]4.06 [3.71, 4.35]8% [0%, 15%]21%33%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 2 QC3.70 [3.19, 4.27]2.18-2.99 [-4.27, -1.72]4.06 [3.65, 4.38]8% [0%, 16%]21%33%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 2 QC3.70 [3.13, 4.34]2.18-2.99 [-4.34, -1.53]4.06 [3.63, 4.40]8% [0%, 15%]21%33%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 2 QC3.70 [3.10, 4.28]2.18-2.99 [-4.27, -1.56]4.06 [3.57, 4.38]8% [0%, 15%]21%33%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 2 QC3.34 [3.03, 3.58]2.14-2.45 [-3.42, -1.35]3.67 [3.34, 3.92]12% [0%, 25%]17%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 2 QC3.34 [3.01, 3.62]2.14-2.45 [-3.47, -1.29]3.67 [3.30, 3.94]12% [0%, 25%]17%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 2 QC3.34 [3.01, 3.64]2.14-2.45 [-3.55, -1.11]3.67 [3.32, 3.94]12% [0%, 27%]17%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 2 QC3.34 [3.00, 3.64]2.14-2.45 [-3.50, -1.22]3.67 [3.30, 3.97]12% [0%, 25%]17%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 2 QC4.15 [3.12, 5.38]1.80+4.15 [3.12, 5.38]4.71 [3.60, 5.77]4% [0%, 12%]17%29%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 2 QC4.15 [3.08, 5.62]1.80+4.15 [3.08, 5.62]4.71 [3.61, 5.98]4% [0%, 15%]17%29%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 2 QC4.15 [2.92, 5.65]1.80+4.15 [2.92, 5.65]4.71 [3.29, 5.97]4% [0%, 14%]17%29%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 2 QC4.15 [2.93, 5.59]1.80+4.15 [2.93, 5.59]4.71 [3.33, 5.89]4% [0%, 14%]17%29%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 2 QC5.09 [3.73, 6.53]2.25+5.09 [3.73, 6.53]5.75 [4.47, 6.98]4% [0%, 11%]17%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 2 QC5.09 [3.77, 6.83]2.25+5.09 [3.77, 6.83]5.75 [4.35, 7.20]4% [0%, 11%]17%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 2 QC5.09 [3.51, 6.87]2.25+5.09 [3.51, 6.87]5.75 [4.09, 7.21]4% [0%, 12%]17%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 2 QC5.09 [3.52, 6.84]2.25+5.09 [3.52, 6.84]5.75 [4.19, 7.13]4% [0%, 12%]17%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -2.81 °F2026-08-08: -4.55 °F2026-08-09: -4.01 °F2026-08-10: -4.45 °F2026-08-11: -4.42 °F2026-08-12: -3.87 °F2026-08-13: -5.05 °F2026-08-14: -5.54 °F2026-08-15: -3.92 °F2026-08-16: -1.15 °F2026-08-17: -3.28 °F2026-08-18: -5.97 °F2026-08-19: +0.83 °F2026-08-20: -6.06 °F2026-08-21: +1.79 °F2026-08-22: +4.53 °F2026-08-23: -2.58 °F2026-08-24: -2.83 °F2026-08-25: -5.92 °F2026-08-26: +1.09 °F2026-08-27: +0.3 °F2026-08-28: -4.77 °F2026-08-29: -4.81 °F2026-08-30: -4.36 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.36
2026-08-29-4.81
2026-08-28-4.77
2026-08-27+0.30
2026-08-26+1.09
2026-08-25-5.92
2026-08-24-2.83
2026-08-23-2.58
2026-08-22+4.53
2026-08-21+1.79
2026-08-20-6.06
2026-08-19+0.83
2026-08-18-5.97
2026-08-17-3.28
2026-08-16-1.15
2026-08-15-3.92
2026-08-14-5.54
2026-08-13-5.05
2026-08-12-3.87
2026-08-11-4.42
2026-08-10-4.45
2026-08-09-4.01
2026-08-08-4.55
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-2.81

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.19 · P90 |e| 5.8 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.007
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08243.70 -2.99

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 -0.24 [-1.36, 1.17] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -0.56 [-0.86, -0.27] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -1.88 [-2.60, -1.51] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.30 [-1.55, -1.04] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -1.97 [-2.16, -1.58] yes
NCEP GFS 24 +1.34 [-0.38, 3.07] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -1.15 [-1.39, -0.92] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -3.07 [-3.58, -2.37] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +1.03 [0.89, 1.18] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -0.26 [-1.20, 0.44] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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