KMSP — Minneapolis-St Paul
44.8831, -93.2289 · 256 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIMSP
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.15-2.94 · n=30 | 3.68-3.60 · n=29 | 3.96-3.63 · n=28 | 3.90-3.35 · n=27 | 4.01-3.27 · n=26 | 4.51-4.08 · n=25 | 5.85-5.10 · n=24 | 6.65-6.24 · n=23 | 6.48-5.57 · n=22 | 6.04-5.49 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 6.37-6.37 · n=2 | 8.11-8.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 5.74-5.74 · n=3 | 6.55-6.55 · n=2 | 7.79-7.79 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 5.20-5.20 · n=2 | 6.01-6.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 5.88-5.88 · n=3 | 6.41-6.41 · n=2 | 5.88-5.88 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.07+0.90 · n=30 | 3.29+1.70 · n=29 | 3.89+1.91 · n=28 | 4.33+2.40 · n=27 | 3.81-0.59 · n=26 | 4.00+0.07 · n=25 | 4.75-1.20 · n=24 | 5.15-0.61 · n=23 | 7.09-2.37 · n=22 | 6.39-2.92 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.98-6.98 · n=2 | 7.60-7.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.95-4.95 · n=34 | 5.82-5.82 · n=33 | 5.62-5.62 · n=32 | 5.85-5.71 · n=31 | 5.58-5.48 · n=31 | 6.22-5.87 · n=31 | 6.44-6.30 · n=30 | 7.00-6.70 · n=29 | 6.42-6.22 · n=28 | 6.90-6.29 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.93-2.62 · n=24 | 3.82-2.78 · n=23 | 3.42-2.18 · n=22 | 3.65-2.19 · n=22 | 3.04-2.36 · n=20 | 2.96-1.85 · n=18 | 4.95-2.68 · n=19 | 3.59-3.13 · n=18 | 5.02-3.81 · n=17 | 5.64-3.42 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 4.42-4.42 · n=2 | 0.54-0.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 4.60-4.60 · n=3 | 4.57-4.57 · n=2 | 4.11-4.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 6.43-0.06 · n=972 | 8.64-0.11 · n=971 | 9.54-0.16 · n=970 | 10.28-0.22 · n=969 | 10.58-0.27 · n=968 | 11.16-0.32 · n=967 | 11.55-0.37 · n=966 | 11.65-0.43 · n=965 | 11.75-0.48 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.52-2.07 · n=30 | 2.64-2.27 · n=29 | 2.71-2.22 · n=28 | 2.85-2.00 · n=27 | 2.83-1.99 · n=26 | 2.72-1.87 · n=25 | 3.66-2.08 · n=24 | 4.34-2.35 · n=23 | 4.69-2.76 · n=22 | 5.58-1.33 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 0.51+0.44 · n=2 | 2.13-2.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.11-0.12 · n=3 | 1.01+0.02 · n=2 | 1.50-1.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.51-1.51 · n=2 | 2.36-2.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.15-2.15 · n=3 | 1.97-1.97 · n=2 | 1.40-1.40 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.81-1.18 · n=30 | 2.28-0.29 · n=29 | 2.27-0.03 · n=28 | 2.98+0.28 · n=27 | 3.57+0.13 · n=26 | 4.31-1.67 · n=25 | 4.46-2.13 · n=24 | 5.32-1.47 · n=23 | 7.11-1.90 · n=22 | 6.63-2.56 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 1.24+1.24 · n=2 | 1.36-1.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.75-0.85 · n=34 | 1.87-1.32 · n=33 | 2.14-1.22 · n=32 | 2.34-1.55 · n=31 | 2.25-1.33 · n=31 | 2.96-1.34 · n=31 | 3.96-1.52 · n=30 | 4.32-1.33 · n=29 | 5.15-1.57 · n=28 | 6.12-1.30 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.54+0.14 · n=24 | 1.47+0.04 · n=23 | 1.81+0.63 · n=22 | 2.39+0.79 · n=22 | 1.86+0.53 · n=20 | 1.91+0.65 · n=18 | 2.50+0.91 · n=19 | 3.28+1.28 · n=18 | 4.22+1.52 · n=17 | 5.51+1.55 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 0.81-0.81 · n=2 | 1.26-1.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 0.77-0.73 · n=3 | 1.36-1.36 · n=2 | 3.69-3.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.81-0.05 · n=972 | 7.00-0.09 · n=971 | 7.96-0.13 · n=970 | 8.45-0.17 · n=969 | 8.85-0.21 · n=968 | 9.48-0.25 · n=967 | 9.93-0.29 · n=966 | 10.08-0.33 · n=965 | 10.20-0.36 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences