Model
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)
pangu_gfs
source aiwp · product PANG · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 2.63+0.22 · n=23 | 2.62+0.43 · n=24 | 2.53+0.56 · n=23 | 2.74+0.27 · n=23 | 3.17+0.52 · n=23 | 3.86+0.69 · n=22 | 4.37+0.88 · n=22 | 5.18+0.99 · n=22 | 5.57−0.19 · n=21 | |
| KAUS | — | 3.16+0.89 · n=23 | 2.90+0.65 · n=24 | 2.83+0.75 · n=23 | 2.86+0.61 · n=23 | 3.00+0.35 · n=23 | 4.08+0.95 · n=22 | 5.20+1.21 · n=22 | 5.96−0.70 · n=22 | 7.52−2.00 · n=21 | |
| KBOS | — | 1.78+0.09 · n=22 | 1.97+0.63 · n=23 | 2.10+0.54 · n=22 | 2.66+1.24 · n=22 | 3.34+1.10 · n=23 | 4.02+1.51 · n=22 | 4.15+2.05 · n=22 | 5.80+3.24 · n=21 | 6.68+2.48 · n=20 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.11+0.43 · n=23 | 2.22+1.28 · n=24 | 2.50+1.44 · n=23 | 3.04+1.46 · n=23 | 3.52+1.09 · n=23 | 4.08+0.84 · n=22 | 3.56+0.85 · n=22 | 5.59+2.52 · n=22 | 6.30+2.42 · n=21 | |
| KDEN | — | 2.58−1.12 · n=23 | 2.99−0.61 · n=24 | 3.42−0.40 · n=23 | 4.03−0.81 · n=23 | 4.56−0.84 · n=23 | 6.17−1.19 · n=22 | 7.04−2.22 · n=22 | 7.32−1.13 · n=22 | 9.45−2.28 · n=21 | |
| KDFW | — | 2.35−0.86 · n=23 | 2.32−1.17 · n=24 | 2.29−1.15 · n=23 | 2.83−1.65 · n=23 | 3.23−1.82 · n=23 | 3.43−1.33 · n=22 | 4.33−1.70 · n=22 | 5.85−4.17 · n=22 | 6.92−4.32 · n=21 | |
| KEWR | — | 2.24+0.20 · n=23 | 2.33+0.62 · n=24 | 2.42+0.63 · n=23 | 2.69+0.89 · n=23 | 2.78+0.78 · n=23 | 3.62+0.25 · n=22 | 3.57+0.68 · n=22 | 5.62+2.03 · n=22 | 6.37+2.00 · n=21 | |
| KIAH | — | 1.88+0.13 · n=23 | 2.00−0.42 · n=24 | 2.28−0.86 · n=23 | 2.40−0.61 · n=23 | 2.67−0.69 · n=23 | 3.09−0.13 · n=22 | 3.85−0.42 · n=22 | 4.32−1.14 · n=22 | 5.88−2.52 · n=21 | |
| KLAS | — | 3.56−3.29 · n=23 | 3.58−3.22 · n=24 | 3.26−2.76 · n=23 | 3.17−1.78 · n=23 | 3.30−1.20 · n=23 | 3.48−1.25 · n=22 | 5.12−0.46 · n=22 | 5.61−0.78 · n=22 | 5.97−1.14 · n=21 | |
| KLAX | — | 2.90−0.59 · n=23 | 2.98−0.86 · n=24 | 3.16−0.76 · n=23 | 3.29−1.30 · n=23 | 3.57−1.61 · n=23 | 4.33−1.85 · n=22 | 4.68−0.96 · n=22 | 5.31−0.61 · n=22 | 5.66−0.83 · n=21 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.58−0.43 · n=23 | 1.78−0.83 · n=24 | 2.04−0.99 · n=23 | 2.42−1.49 · n=23 | 2.50−1.76 · n=23 | 2.53−1.71 · n=22 | 2.64−1.66 · n=22 | 2.59−1.30 · n=22 | 2.69−1.16 · n=21 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.64−0.93 · n=23 | 2.51−0.41 · n=24 | 2.56−0.63 · n=23 | 2.93−1.13 · n=23 | 3.50−1.24 · n=23 | 4.60−1.66 · n=22 | 5.08−1.92 · n=22 | 5.59−1.08 · n=22 | 7.25−2.47 · n=21 | |
| KMSY | — | 1.79−0.38 · n=23 | 1.97−0.64 · n=24 | 2.13−0.90 · n=23 | 2.37−1.43 · n=23 | 2.69−1.32 · n=23 | 3.17−0.75 · n=22 | 3.45−0.60 · n=22 | 4.40−0.25 · n=22 | 4.68−0.91 · n=21 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.99+1.23 · n=23 | 3.03+1.69 · n=23 | 3.00+1.70 · n=22 | 3.39+1.96 · n=22 | 3.48+1.95 · n=22 | 3.92+1.41 · n=21 | 4.55+1.90 · n=21 | 6.00+2.94 · n=21 | 6.64+2.96 · n=20 | |
| KOKC | — | 2.95+1.31 · n=23 | 2.83+1.52 · n=24 | 2.83+1.55 · n=23 | 3.63+0.94 · n=23 | 4.15+0.54 · n=23 | 3.91+0.68 · n=22 | 4.55−0.65 · n=22 | 5.88−2.00 · n=22 | 6.43−1.55 · n=21 | |
| KORD | — | 2.23+0.31 · n=23 | 2.64+0.92 · n=24 | 2.78+1.42 · n=23 | 3.03+1.21 · n=23 | 3.82+1.51 · n=23 | 4.01+1.37 · n=22 | 5.53+1.41 · n=22 | 5.64+1.27 · n=22 | 5.68−0.29 · n=21 | |
| KPHL | — | 2.33−0.14 · n=23 | 2.29+0.56 · n=24 | 2.53+0.65 · n=23 | 2.91+0.85 · n=23 | 3.01+0.62 · n=23 | 4.01+0.05 · n=22 | 3.52+0.22 · n=22 | 5.44+1.83 · n=22 | 6.53+1.89 · n=21 | |
| KPHX | — | 2.62−1.02 · n=23 | 2.60−1.10 · n=24 | 2.97−0.66 · n=23 | 3.13−0.17 · n=23 | 3.52+0.15 · n=23 | 4.17+0.50 · n=22 | 4.95+1.40 · n=22 | 5.98+1.24 · n=22 | 6.20−0.23 · n=21 | |
| KSAN | — | 3.61−2.03 · n=23 | 3.63−2.38 · n=24 | 3.81−2.79 · n=23 | 4.01−3.06 · n=23 | 4.24−3.26 · n=23 | 4.73−3.68 · n=22 | 4.84−3.12 · n=22 | 5.29−3.04 · n=22 | 5.14−3.07 · n=21 | |
| KSAT | — | 2.09−0.01 · n=23 | 2.06−0.32 · n=24 | 1.91−0.25 · n=23 | 2.00−0.17 · n=23 | 2.57−0.59 · n=23 | 2.89−0.31 · n=22 | 4.07−0.06 · n=22 | 4.83−1.75 · n=22 | 6.70−3.41 · n=21 | |
| KSEA | — | 2.01+0.08 · n=23 | 2.48+0.83 · n=24 | 2.65+1.17 · n=23 | 2.75+1.06 · n=23 | 2.69+1.04 · n=23 | 3.11+1.31 · n=22 | 3.54+0.98 · n=22 | 3.67+0.95 · n=22 | 4.20+1.78 · n=21 | |
| KSFO | — | 3.08−0.37 · n=23 | 3.26−0.37 · n=24 | 3.45−0.51 · n=23 | 3.32−0.57 · n=23 | 3.30−0.69 · n=23 | 3.60−0.72 · n=22 | 3.85−0.54 · n=22 | 4.04−0.53 · n=22 | 4.52−0.23 · n=21 | |
| KTTN | — | 2.93+2.74 · n=23 | 3.52+3.37 · n=24 | 3.89+3.66 · n=23 | 4.31+4.04 · n=23 | 4.44+3.82 · n=23 | 4.62+3.31 · n=22 | 4.65+3.58 · n=22 | 7.23+5.14 · n=22 | 7.65+5.17 · n=21 |
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 4.26+4.00 · n=23 | 4.33+4.07 · n=24 | 4.29+3.93 · n=23 | 4.05+3.65 · n=23 | 5.04+4.03 · n=23 | 5.47+3.96 · n=22 | 5.32+3.54 · n=22 | 6.43+2.33 · n=22 | 6.72+0.50 · n=21 | |
| KAUS | — | 1.88−0.56 · n=23 | 1.89−0.42 · n=24 | 1.74−0.02 · n=23 | 2.00−0.19 · n=23 | 2.69−0.69 · n=23 | 3.64−1.23 · n=22 | 4.98−1.41 · n=22 | 5.55−3.54 · n=22 | 7.37−5.45 · n=21 | |
| KBOS | — | 2.01+0.97 · n=22 | 2.35+1.08 · n=23 | 2.36+0.95 · n=22 | 3.68+2.15 · n=22 | 4.63+2.04 · n=23 | 3.90+1.47 · n=22 | 4.47+2.55 · n=22 | 6.67+3.90 · n=21 | 7.67+3.25 · n=20 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.75+2.42 · n=23 | 3.41+3.10 · n=24 | 3.43+2.94 · n=23 | 3.65+3.34 · n=23 | 3.97+2.98 · n=23 | 5.18+2.89 · n=22 | 4.34+3.07 · n=22 | 7.41+5.12 · n=22 | 8.50+4.39 · n=21 | |
| KDEN | — | 1.89−1.02 · n=23 | 2.63+0.38 · n=24 | 3.08+1.29 · n=23 | 3.14+0.92 · n=23 | 3.74+0.70 · n=23 | 5.80+0.72 · n=22 | 6.76−0.10 · n=22 | 7.50+2.09 · n=22 | 10.02+0.30 · n=21 | |
| KDFW | — | 1.74+0.42 · n=23 | 1.88+0.25 · n=24 | 1.56+0.22 · n=23 | 2.10−0.40 · n=23 | 3.07−0.69 · n=23 | 3.14−0.83 · n=22 | 4.67−1.75 · n=22 | 5.70−4.22 · n=22 | 6.48−4.72 · n=21 | |
| KEWR | — | 1.90+1.49 · n=23 | 2.02+1.79 · n=24 | 2.16+1.56 · n=23 | 2.57+1.99 · n=23 | 2.72+2.02 · n=23 | 2.98+0.97 · n=22 | 3.82+1.31 · n=22 | 6.75+3.30 · n=22 | 6.91+3.23 · n=21 | |
| KIAH | — | 1.81+0.15 · n=23 | 2.41−0.15 · n=24 | 2.45−0.37 · n=23 | 2.68−0.41 · n=23 | 3.05−1.21 · n=23 | 3.41−1.27 · n=22 | 5.38−2.25 · n=22 | 4.93−3.28 · n=22 | 7.31−5.33 · n=21 | |
| KLAS | — | 3.98−3.76 · n=23 | 3.58−3.19 · n=24 | 3.01−2.09 · n=23 | 2.49−0.75 · n=23 | 2.69+0.11 · n=23 | 3.61−0.33 · n=22 | 5.87+0.71 · n=22 | 5.77+0.70 · n=22 | 6.15+0.39 · n=21 | |
| KLAX | — | 2.76−1.67 · n=23 | 3.35−1.75 · n=24 | 3.89−1.53 · n=23 | 3.81−1.98 · n=23 | 4.42−2.40 · n=23 | 5.31−2.85 · n=22 | 5.26−1.65 · n=22 | 5.77−1.23 · n=22 | 6.46−1.20 · n=21 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.31−0.24 · n=23 | 1.64−0.86 · n=24 | 2.22−0.80 · n=23 | 2.62−1.44 · n=23 | 2.56−1.81 · n=23 | 2.64−1.77 · n=22 | 3.32−2.28 · n=22 | 3.51−1.44 · n=22 | 3.53−1.40 · n=21 | |
| KMSP | — | 1.86+0.97 · n=23 | 1.96+1.43 · n=24 | 2.01+0.66 · n=23 | 2.72+0.07 · n=23 | 3.73−0.21 · n=23 | 4.87−0.34 · n=22 | 5.35−0.88 · n=22 | 4.99−0.15 · n=22 | 5.86−0.91 · n=21 | |
| KMSY | — | 1.14+0.23 · n=23 | 1.50+0.16 · n=24 | 1.94−0.47 · n=23 | 2.00−1.10 · n=23 | 2.59−1.16 · n=23 | 2.94−0.38 · n=22 | 3.18−0.86 · n=22 | 3.84−1.40 · n=22 | 4.33−3.02 · n=21 | |
| KNYC | — | 5.16+5.16 · n=23 | 5.44+5.44 · n=23 | 5.16+5.16 · n=22 | 5.89+5.61 · n=22 | 5.66+5.53 · n=22 | 4.66+4.06 · n=21 | 6.57+5.20 · n=21 | 8.07+6.40 · n=21 | 8.21+6.08 · n=20 | |
| KOKC | — | 2.48+1.09 · n=23 | 2.55+1.11 · n=24 | 2.42+1.14 · n=23 | 3.43+0.41 · n=23 | 4.38−0.32 · n=23 | 4.01−0.41 · n=22 | 5.03−2.70 · n=22 | 6.37−4.38 · n=22 | 6.95−3.09 · n=21 | |
| KORD | — | 1.82−1.32 · n=23 | 1.80−0.80 · n=24 | 2.35+0.15 · n=23 | 2.62−0.17 · n=23 | 3.91−0.70 · n=23 | 3.64−0.91 · n=22 | 4.77−1.37 · n=22 | 5.17−0.47 · n=22 | 4.98−2.87 · n=21 | |
| KPHL | — | 2.24+1.94 · n=23 | 2.59+2.53 · n=24 | 2.99+2.34 · n=23 | 3.50+2.70 · n=23 | 3.57+2.57 · n=23 | 4.23+1.68 · n=22 | 3.88+1.61 · n=22 | 6.72+3.99 · n=22 | 7.71+3.99 · n=21 | |
| KPHX | — | 1.79−1.36 · n=23 | 1.79−0.51 · n=24 | 2.39+0.46 · n=23 | 2.41+1.03 · n=23 | 3.43+1.59 · n=23 | 3.72+1.88 · n=22 | 4.31+3.13 · n=22 | 6.29+3.22 · n=22 | 5.82+1.60 · n=21 | |
| KSAN | — | 4.95−4.95 · n=23 | 5.27−5.27 · n=24 | 5.69−5.69 · n=23 | 6.16−6.16 · n=23 | 6.37−6.37 · n=23 | 6.79−6.62 · n=22 | 6.77−5.72 · n=22 | 6.94−5.36 · n=22 | 6.86−5.44 · n=21 | |
| KSAT | — | 1.55+0.09 · n=23 | 1.73−0.31 · n=24 | 1.63−0.03 · n=23 | 1.96+0.17 · n=23 | 2.90−0.25 · n=23 | 2.99−1.20 · n=22 | 4.15−1.03 · n=22 | 4.45−2.93 · n=22 | 6.55−4.98 · n=21 | |
| KSEA | — | 1.62−0.20 · n=23 | 2.13+0.69 · n=24 | 2.89+0.95 · n=23 | 2.95+1.11 · n=23 | 2.58+1.47 · n=23 | 3.34+1.19 · n=22 | 3.80+0.99 · n=22 | 4.62+1.79 · n=22 | 4.75+2.81 · n=21 | |
| KSFO | — | 3.80−2.23 · n=23 | 4.13−2.26 · n=24 | 4.56−2.60 · n=23 | 4.72−2.55 · n=23 | 4.18−2.33 · n=23 | 4.56−2.24 · n=22 | 4.57−1.53 · n=22 | 5.38−1.48 · n=22 | 6.08−1.15 · n=21 | |
| KTTN | — | 3.14+3.14 · n=23 | 3.70+3.70 · n=24 | 3.79+3.60 · n=23 | 4.25+4.05 · n=23 | 4.48+4.08 · n=23 | 4.12+3.13 · n=22 | 4.92+3.49 · n=22 | 8.12+5.55 · n=22 | 8.19+5.43 · n=21 |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 1.51−0.61 · n=23 | 1.98−0.44 · n=24 | 1.81−0.15 · n=23 | 1.91−0.98 · n=23 | 1.98−0.70 · n=23 | 3.39−0.43 · n=22 | 4.29−0.34 · n=22 | 5.03+0.81 · n=22 | 5.31+0.04 · n=21 | |
| KAUS | — | 4.29+3.80 · n=23 | 3.48+2.87 · n=24 | 3.48+2.61 · n=23 | 3.27+2.52 · n=23 | 2.92+2.56 · n=23 | 4.47+4.22 · n=22 | 5.34+4.51 · n=22 | 6.19+3.26 · n=22 | 6.82+2.32 · n=21 | |
| KBOS | — | 1.39+0.12 · n=22 | 1.71+0.99 · n=23 | 1.61+1.19 · n=22 | 1.97+1.62 · n=22 | 2.26+0.94 · n=23 | 4.20+2.03 · n=22 | 4.30+2.75 · n=22 | 4.95+3.52 · n=21 | 5.81+2.58 · n=20 | |
| KDCA | — | 1.28+0.16 · n=23 | 1.59+1.23 · n=24 | 2.05+1.61 · n=23 | 2.78+1.22 · n=23 | 3.19+0.88 · n=23 | 3.90+0.60 · n=22 | 3.32+0.40 · n=22 | 4.72+1.97 · n=22 | 5.21+1.88 · n=21 | |
| KDEN | — | 2.38−1.38 · n=23 | 3.10−1.85 · n=24 | 3.72−2.32 · n=23 | 4.64−3.02 · n=23 | 4.95−2.72 · n=23 | 5.69−3.88 · n=22 | 6.49−5.53 · n=22 | 6.43−5.72 · n=22 | 7.97−6.63 · n=21 | |
| KDFW | — | 1.47+0.50 · n=23 | 1.56−0.97 · n=24 | 1.88−1.37 · n=23 | 2.26−1.81 · n=23 | 2.57−1.89 · n=23 | 2.56−0.91 · n=22 | 3.48−0.92 · n=22 | 5.59−2.62 · n=22 | 6.59−3.13 · n=21 | |
| KEWR | — | 1.48+0.39 · n=23 | 1.92+1.02 · n=24 | 2.24+1.63 · n=23 | 2.75+1.25 · n=23 | 2.55+1.26 · n=23 | 3.58+1.16 · n=22 | 3.41+1.26 · n=22 | 4.70+2.36 · n=22 | 5.65+2.54 · n=21 | |
| KIAH | — | 1.73+1.47 · n=23 | 1.58+0.38 · n=24 | 1.77−0.36 · n=23 | 1.91+0.07 · n=23 | 2.32+0.67 · n=23 | 2.89+2.00 · n=22 | 3.06+1.73 · n=22 | 4.06+1.60 · n=22 | 5.11+0.32 · n=21 | |
| KLAS | — | 3.08−2.98 · n=23 | 3.89−3.89 · n=24 | 4.32−4.32 · n=23 | 3.97−3.78 · n=23 | 3.71−3.62 · n=23 | 3.91−3.07 · n=22 | 4.34−2.41 · n=22 | 4.66−2.78 · n=22 | 5.32−3.16 · n=21 | |
| KLAX | — | 2.22+0.94 · n=23 | 1.83+0.64 · n=24 | 1.90+0.33 · n=23 | 2.14+0.05 · n=23 | 2.10−0.51 · n=23 | 2.97−1.19 · n=22 | 3.42−0.76 · n=22 | 3.95−0.12 · n=22 | 3.75−0.42 · n=21 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.58−0.44 · n=23 | 1.55−0.46 · n=24 | 1.49−0.80 · n=23 | 1.70−1.11 · n=23 | 2.03−1.43 · n=23 | 1.95−1.32 · n=22 | 2.03−1.00 · n=22 | 1.91−0.73 · n=22 | 2.13−0.63 · n=21 | |
| KMSP | — | 1.54−0.72 · n=23 | 1.53−0.44 · n=24 | 1.89−0.65 · n=23 | 2.34−1.10 · n=23 | 3.17−1.12 · n=23 | 4.46−2.04 · n=22 | 4.57−2.01 · n=22 | 5.58−0.86 · n=22 | 8.04−3.14 · n=21 | |
| KMSY | — | 1.96−0.16 · n=23 | 1.86−1.21 · n=24 | 2.01−1.66 · n=23 | 2.76−2.34 · n=23 | 2.61−1.81 · n=23 | 3.84−1.11 · n=22 | 4.34−0.53 · n=22 | 5.09+0.37 · n=22 | 5.50+0.73 · n=21 | |
| KNYC | — | 1.80−0.36 · n=23 | 1.70+0.38 · n=23 | 1.92+0.86 · n=22 | 2.10+0.47 · n=22 | 2.33+0.62 · n=22 | 3.35+0.68 · n=21 | 3.68+0.59 · n=21 | 4.95+1.60 · n=21 | 5.95+2.04 · n=20 | |
| KOKC | — | 3.45+2.12 · n=23 | 2.88+1.54 · n=24 | 2.71+1.36 · n=23 | 3.12+0.98 · n=23 | 3.73+0.86 · n=23 | 4.02+1.31 · n=22 | 4.04−0.05 · n=22 | 6.74−0.85 · n=22 | 6.14−1.11 · n=21 | |
| KORD | — | 3.39+2.94 · n=23 | 3.79+3.44 · n=24 | 3.59+3.14 · n=23 | 4.07+3.10 · n=23 | 4.65+4.21 · n=23 | 4.31+3.91 · n=22 | 6.34+4.37 · n=22 | 5.94+3.51 · n=22 | 5.48+1.76 · n=21 | |
| KPHL | — | 1.70−0.76 · n=23 | 1.93+0.19 · n=24 | 2.18+0.77 · n=23 | 2.50+0.43 · n=23 | 2.28+0.18 · n=23 | 3.71−0.21 · n=22 | 3.21+0.06 · n=22 | 4.39+1.28 · n=22 | 6.11+1.35 · n=21 | |
| KPHX | — | 1.76−0.52 · n=23 | 2.29−1.81 · n=24 | 2.58−2.12 · n=23 | 2.76−1.96 · n=23 | 2.59−1.65 · n=23 | 3.48−1.51 · n=22 | 4.16−1.30 · n=22 | 5.15−1.37 · n=22 | 5.24−2.40 · n=21 | |
| KSAN | — | 2.59+1.88 · n=23 | 2.39+1.36 · n=24 | 2.31+0.68 · n=23 | 2.33+0.67 · n=23 | 2.53+0.70 · n=23 | 2.72+0.15 · n=22 | 2.73+0.28 · n=22 | 3.97+0.35 · n=22 | 3.70−0.18 · n=21 | |
| KSAT | — | 2.37+1.20 · n=23 | 2.08+0.51 · n=24 | 1.68+0.28 · n=23 | 1.71+0.12 · n=23 | 2.25−0.21 · n=23 | 2.50+1.16 · n=22 | 3.96+1.95 · n=22 | 4.95+0.86 · n=22 | 6.07−0.54 · n=21 | |
| KSEA | — | 1.23+0.27 · n=23 | 1.76+0.46 · n=24 | 1.98+0.74 · n=23 | 1.69+0.40 · n=23 | 2.00+0.23 · n=23 | 2.20+0.27 · n=22 | 2.49+0.90 · n=22 | 3.05+0.15 · n=22 | 2.85+0.33 · n=21 | |
| KSFO | — | 2.13+0.47 · n=23 | 2.20+0.32 · n=24 | 2.35+0.04 · n=23 | 2.24−0.07 · n=23 | 2.45−0.31 · n=23 | 2.89−0.25 · n=22 | 3.07−0.67 · n=22 | 3.04−0.63 · n=22 | 3.63−0.05 · n=21 | |
| KTTN | — | 3.24+3.24 · n=23 | 3.90+3.88 · n=24 | 4.81+4.72 · n=23 | 4.89+4.63 · n=23 | 4.16+4.05 · n=23 | 4.88+3.94 · n=22 | 4.98+4.03 · n=22 | 6.65+5.56 · n=22 | 7.37+5.65 · n=21 |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 1.87+1.13 · n=23 | 2.10+1.28 · n=24 | 2.56+1.37 · n=23 | 2.77+1.08 · n=23 | 3.95+1.42 · n=23 | 4.52+1.28 · n=22 | 4.63+0.91 · n=22 | 6.24−0.48 · n=22 | 7.15−2.31 · n=21 | |
| KAUS | — | 5.15−4.73 · n=23 | 5.19−4.71 · n=24 | 4.78−4.24 · n=23 | 5.23−4.24 · n=23 | 6.40−4.91 · n=23 | 6.76−5.69 · n=22 | 7.87−5.78 · n=22 | 9.45−8.17 · n=22 | 11.72−10.07 · n=21 | |
| KBOS | — | 2.43−0.61 · n=23 | 2.53−0.54 · n=24 | 2.75−0.93 · n=23 | 3.31+0.08 · n=23 | 4.49+0.58 · n=23 | 4.21−0.06 · n=22 | 4.12+0.93 · n=22 | 6.10+1.87 · n=22 | 7.32+2.05 · n=21 | |
| KDCA | — | 1.76+0.77 · n=23 | 2.06+1.23 · n=24 | 2.32+1.07 · n=23 | 2.14+1.43 · n=23 | 3.18+1.11 · n=23 | 4.37+1.17 · n=22 | 3.69+1.21 · n=22 | 7.44+3.31 · n=22 | 8.26+2.63 · n=21 | |
| KDEN | — | 5.89−5.89 · n=23 | 4.76−4.71 · n=24 | 4.35−3.93 · n=23 | 4.86−4.21 · n=23 | 5.80−4.21 · n=23 | 7.16−4.33 · n=22 | 7.30−5.33 · n=22 | 7.27−3.00 · n=22 | 11.46−4.36 · n=21 | |
| KDFW | — | 3.11−3.02 · n=23 | 3.28−3.04 · n=24 | 3.47−3.13 · n=23 | 4.34−3.80 · n=23 | 5.30−4.12 · n=23 | 5.56−4.19 · n=22 | 7.34−5.30 · n=22 | 8.67−7.81 · n=22 | 9.44−8.05 · n=21 | |
| KEWR | — | 1.29−0.03 · n=23 | 1.22−0.02 · n=24 | 1.58−0.32 · n=23 | 2.18+0.23 · n=23 | 2.23+0.09 · n=23 | 3.59−0.96 · n=22 | 4.14−0.30 · n=22 | 6.45+1.83 · n=22 | 6.76+1.64 · n=21 | |
| KIAH | — | 3.49−3.37 · n=23 | 4.22−3.57 · n=24 | 4.69−4.02 · n=23 | 4.92−4.06 · n=23 | 5.63−4.77 · n=23 | 5.91−5.00 · n=22 | 7.58−6.07 · n=22 | 7.79−6.92 · n=22 | 9.98−8.76 · n=21 | |
| KLAS | — | 5.53−5.53 · n=23 | 4.99−4.93 · n=24 | 4.16−3.90 · n=23 | 2.72−2.43 · n=23 | 2.89−1.27 · n=23 | 3.62−1.73 · n=22 | 5.92−0.87 · n=22 | 5.96−1.07 · n=22 | 6.44−1.13 · n=21 | |
| KLAX | — | 4.80−4.41 · n=23 | 5.31−4.50 · n=24 | 5.04−4.05 · n=23 | 5.67−4.68 · n=23 | 6.24−5.19 · n=23 | 7.03−5.53 · n=22 | 6.58−4.24 · n=22 | 7.23−4.09 · n=22 | 7.08−3.87 · n=21 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.94−1.94 · n=23 | 2.69−2.61 · n=24 | 3.17−3.02 · n=23 | 3.76−3.53 · n=23 | 3.81−3.81 · n=23 | 3.82−3.82 · n=22 | 4.39−4.19 · n=22 | 3.80−3.44 · n=22 | 3.90−2.97 · n=21 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.69−2.29 · n=23 | 2.19−1.70 · n=24 | 2.72−2.21 · n=23 | 3.97−3.02 · n=23 | 4.86−3.47 · n=23 | 6.40−3.66 · n=22 | 6.79−4.52 · n=22 | 6.09−3.92 · n=22 | 6.61−4.63 · n=21 | |
| KMSY | — | 2.19−2.12 · n=23 | 2.18−2.13 · n=24 | 2.74−2.60 · n=23 | 3.34−3.27 · n=23 | 3.51−3.42 · n=23 | 3.47−2.65 · n=22 | 3.88−3.27 · n=22 | 4.68−3.86 · n=22 | 5.51−5.31 · n=21 | |
| KNYC | — | 3.12+3.12 · n=23 | 3.18+3.18 · n=24 | 2.96+2.84 · n=23 | 4.15+3.27 · n=23 | 3.94+3.31 · n=23 | 4.24+2.45 · n=22 | 4.87+2.95 · n=22 | 7.44+4.93 · n=22 | 7.58+4.69 · n=21 | |
| KOKC | — | 3.34−2.00 · n=23 | 2.88−1.93 · n=24 | 2.93−1.87 · n=23 | 4.29−2.77 · n=23 | 5.48−3.54 · n=23 | 5.70−3.50 · n=22 | 6.97−5.93 · n=22 | 8.58−7.61 · n=22 | 8.69−6.33 · n=21 | |
| KORD | — | 3.50−3.50 · n=23 | 3.29−2.96 · n=24 | 2.73−1.93 · n=23 | 3.38−2.29 · n=23 | 4.25−2.96 · n=23 | 4.34−3.31 · n=22 | 5.91−3.91 · n=22 | 5.09−2.92 · n=22 | 6.47−5.20 · n=21 | |
| KPHL | — | 1.40+0.07 · n=23 | 1.22+0.45 · n=24 | 1.94+0.25 · n=23 | 2.25+0.61 · n=23 | 2.86+0.78 · n=23 | 4.16−0.24 · n=22 | 3.58−0.25 · n=22 | 6.43+2.49 · n=22 | 7.54+2.22 · n=21 | |
| KPHX | — | 4.10−4.10 · n=23 | 3.19−3.14 · n=24 | 2.89−2.19 · n=23 | 2.56−1.27 · n=23 | 2.77−0.80 · n=23 | 3.39−0.71 · n=22 | 4.13+0.31 · n=22 | 6.21+0.31 · n=22 | 5.70−1.16 · n=21 | |
| KSAN | — | 7.35−7.35 · n=23 | 7.65−7.65 · n=24 | 8.08−8.08 · n=23 | 8.59−8.59 · n=23 | 9.02−9.02 · n=23 | 9.16−9.16 · n=22 | 8.54−8.23 · n=22 | 8.68−7.82 · n=22 | 8.33−7.73 · n=21 | |
| KSAT | — | 3.82−3.69 · n=23 | 3.87−3.79 · n=24 | 3.56−3.40 · n=23 | 3.77−3.33 · n=23 | 4.79−3.88 · n=23 | 5.10−4.54 · n=22 | 6.27−4.46 · n=22 | 7.84−6.82 · n=22 | 9.67−8.62 · n=21 | |
| KSEA | — | 2.02−1.57 · n=23 | 2.28−0.76 · n=24 | 2.54−0.47 · n=23 | 2.77−0.49 · n=23 | 2.18+0.10 · n=23 | 3.15−0.02 · n=22 | 3.94−0.41 · n=22 | 4.06+0.12 · n=22 | 4.46+1.38 · n=21 | |
| KSFO | — | 5.87−5.87 · n=23 | 6.08−6.08 · n=24 | 6.54−6.53 · n=23 | 6.59−6.54 · n=23 | 6.67−6.39 · n=23 | 6.70−6.31 · n=22 | 6.03−5.29 · n=22 | 6.52−5.14 · n=22 | 6.80−4.58 · n=21 | |
| KTTN | — | 1.51+1.23 · n=23 | 1.79+1.74 · n=24 | 2.04+1.68 · n=23 | 2.66+2.09 · n=23 | 3.11+2.16 · n=23 | 3.71+1.40 · n=22 | 4.04+1.48 · n=22 | 7.41+3.68 · n=22 | 7.61+3.81 · n=21 |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 1.35+0.61 · n=23 | 1.83+1.04 · n=24 | 1.87+1.36 · n=23 | 2.06+0.48 · n=23 | 2.30+0.76 · n=23 | 3.64+1.06 · n=22 | 4.42+1.32 · n=22 | 4.99+2.29 · n=22 | 4.62+1.50 · n=21 | |
| KAUS | — | 5.33+5.15 · n=23 | 4.67+4.53 · n=24 | 4.61+4.43 · n=23 | 4.60+4.47 · n=23 | 4.61+4.51 · n=23 | 6.15+6.12 · n=22 | 6.55+6.32 · n=22 | 6.84+4.80 · n=22 | 7.29+3.84 · n=21 | |
| KBOS | — | 2.60+2.27 · n=23 | 2.94+2.85 · n=24 | 3.40+3.40 · n=23 | 3.84+3.84 · n=23 | 3.97+3.24 · n=23 | 5.63+4.39 · n=22 | 5.33+4.79 · n=22 | 5.94+5.26 · n=22 | 6.50+4.58 · n=21 | |
| KDCA | — | 1.91+1.72 · n=23 | 2.68+2.68 · n=24 | 3.14+3.12 · n=23 | 3.34+2.86 · n=23 | 3.30+2.53 · n=23 | 4.04+2.23 · n=22 | 3.81+2.12 · n=22 | 5.34+3.77 · n=22 | 5.57+3.49 · n=21 | |
| KDEN | — | 2.25+0.49 · n=23 | 2.73+0.09 · n=24 | 2.66−0.21 · n=23 | 3.69−0.82 · n=23 | 3.81−0.48 · n=23 | 4.55−1.77 · n=22 | 5.13−3.47 · n=22 | 5.00−3.75 · n=22 | 6.94−5.09 · n=21 | |
| KDFW | — | 2.42+2.15 · n=23 | 1.94+0.92 · n=24 | 1.94+0.73 · n=23 | 1.90+0.33 · n=23 | 2.71+0.08 · n=23 | 3.24+1.05 · n=22 | 3.38+0.77 · n=22 | 5.55−1.25 · n=22 | 5.87−1.40 · n=21 | |
| KEWR | — | 2.53+2.48 · n=23 | 3.46+3.09 · n=24 | 4.07+3.97 · n=23 | 4.24+3.81 · n=23 | 3.95+3.91 · n=23 | 5.02+3.83 · n=22 | 5.08+3.80 · n=22 | 6.38+4.94 · n=22 | 6.55+4.72 · n=21 | |
| KIAH | — | 3.19+3.12 · n=23 | 2.84+2.53 · n=24 | 2.91+1.79 · n=23 | 3.27+2.09 · n=23 | 3.62+2.78 · n=23 | 4.50+3.88 · n=22 | 4.24+3.61 · n=22 | 5.03+3.25 · n=22 | 5.84+2.10 · n=21 | |
| KLAS | — | 2.25−1.33 · n=23 | 2.54−2.31 · n=24 | 2.68−2.63 · n=23 | 2.80−2.09 · n=23 | 2.53−1.97 · n=23 | 3.11−1.43 · n=22 | 3.82−1.09 · n=22 | 4.46−1.28 · n=22 | 4.81−1.69 · n=21 | |
| KLAX | — | 3.11+2.73 · n=23 | 2.75+2.45 · n=24 | 2.59+2.01 · n=23 | 2.62+1.85 · n=23 | 2.52+1.51 · n=23 | 2.61+0.73 · n=22 | 3.56+0.94 · n=22 | 4.04+1.49 · n=22 | 3.78+1.12 · n=21 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.71+1.30 · n=23 | 1.73+1.37 · n=24 | 1.46+0.73 · n=23 | 1.63+0.63 · n=23 | 1.61+0.40 · n=23 | 1.49+0.40 · n=22 | 2.05+0.91 · n=22 | 1.62+0.81 · n=22 | 2.07+0.95 · n=21 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.52+1.68 · n=23 | 2.84+2.15 · n=24 | 2.92+2.00 · n=23 | 2.75+0.90 · n=23 | 3.64+0.58 · n=23 | 4.66+0.51 · n=22 | 4.58+0.04 · n=22 | 5.59+0.83 · n=22 | 7.92−0.85 · n=21 | |
| KMSY | — | 2.46+1.57 · n=23 | 1.89+0.74 · n=24 | 1.50+0.08 · n=23 | 1.97−0.60 · n=23 | 2.03−0.24 · n=23 | 3.75+0.66 · n=22 | 4.90+1.70 · n=22 | 5.41+2.55 · n=22 | 5.85+2.92 · n=21 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.16+0.69 · n=23 | 2.46+1.73 · n=24 | 2.88+2.45 · n=23 | 3.17+2.17 · n=23 | 2.98+2.28 · n=23 | 3.86+2.08 · n=22 | 4.22+2.00 · n=22 | 5.56+3.28 · n=22 | 6.36+3.48 · n=21 | |
| KOKC | — | 4.05+3.55 · n=23 | 3.41+3.01 · n=24 | 3.34+2.90 · n=23 | 3.35+2.52 · n=23 | 4.10+2.40 · n=23 | 4.23+2.87 · n=22 | 4.15+1.38 · n=22 | 6.41+0.58 · n=22 | 5.75+0.33 · n=21 | |
| KORD | — | 4.40+4.35 · n=23 | 5.14+5.10 · n=24 | 4.82+4.79 · n=23 | 4.79+4.62 · n=23 | 5.67+5.47 · n=23 | 5.64+5.36 · n=22 | 7.04+5.87 · n=22 | 6.38+4.79 · n=22 | 5.69+3.07 · n=21 | |
| KPHL | — | 1.95+1.11 · n=23 | 2.52+2.04 · n=24 | 3.13+2.78 · n=23 | 3.26+2.54 · n=23 | 3.02+2.28 · n=23 | 4.32+1.76 · n=22 | 3.95+2.03 · n=22 | 5.24+3.16 · n=22 | 6.52+3.42 · n=21 | |
| KPHX | — | 1.68+0.96 · n=23 | 1.49−0.41 · n=24 | 1.90−1.01 · n=23 | 2.42−0.68 · n=23 | 2.42−0.45 · n=23 | 3.00−0.39 · n=22 | 4.19−0.00 · n=22 | 4.84−0.03 · n=22 | 5.35−1.28 · n=21 | |
| KSAN | — | 3.52+3.40 · n=23 | 3.18+3.06 · n=24 | 2.90+2.71 · n=23 | 2.90+2.71 · n=23 | 3.21+2.73 · n=23 | 3.25+2.14 · n=22 | 3.24+2.32 · n=22 | 3.94+2.12 · n=22 | 3.54+1.53 · n=21 | |
| KSAT | — | 2.48+1.89 · n=23 | 2.18+1.48 · n=24 | 1.87+1.21 · n=23 | 1.82+1.22 · n=23 | 2.58+0.98 · n=23 | 3.04+2.31 · n=22 | 4.52+2.88 · n=22 | 4.84+1.51 · n=22 | 6.04+0.19 · n=21 | |
| KSEA | — | 2.09+2.05 · n=23 | 2.31+2.22 · n=24 | 2.47+2.40 · n=23 | 2.50+2.23 · n=23 | 2.49+2.06 · n=23 | 2.82+1.82 · n=22 | 3.20+2.55 · n=22 | 3.53+2.11 · n=22 | 3.43+2.14 · n=21 | |
| KSFO | — | 2.42+1.43 · n=23 | 2.24+1.24 · n=24 | 2.33+1.04 · n=23 | 2.16+0.71 · n=23 | 2.35+0.60 · n=23 | 2.88+0.66 · n=22 | 3.03+0.24 · n=22 | 2.91+0.37 · n=22 | 3.61+0.86 · n=21 | |
| KTTN | — | 6.24+6.24 · n=23 | 6.99+6.99 · n=24 | 7.97+7.97 · n=23 | 8.10+7.93 · n=23 | 7.56+7.56 · n=23 | 7.51+7.11 · n=22 | 7.61+6.93 · n=22 | 9.11+8.69 · n=22 | 9.32+8.64 · n=21 |
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.
Where it comes from
aiwp · PANG · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.