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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KPHL · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.17 [3.08, 5.18]2.61-3.54 [-4.88, -1.93]5.01 [3.72, 5.95]13% [0%, 32%]17%30%-0.31+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.17 [2.84, 5.23]2.61-3.54 [-4.97, -1.77]5.01 [3.36, 5.95]13% [0%, 33%]17%30%-0.31+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.17 [2.88, 5.32]2.61-3.54 [-5.11, -1.75]5.01 [3.35, 6.03]13% [0%, 33%]17%30%-0.31+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.17 [2.84, 5.15]2.61-3.54 [-5.01, -1.70]5.01 [3.36, 5.95]13% [0%, 33%]17%30%-0.31+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC4.07 [2.89, 5.09]2.80-3.31 [-4.76, -1.59]5.05 [3.44, 6.07]13% [0%, 24%]22%48%-0.28+0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC4.07 [2.52, 5.22]2.80-3.31 [-4.93, -1.34]5.05 [2.84, 6.29]13% [0%, 25%]22%48%-0.28+0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC4.07 [2.45, 5.34]2.80-3.31 [-5.02, -1.26]5.05 [2.77, 6.24]13% [0%, 25%]22%48%-0.28+0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC4.07 [2.52, 5.18]2.80-3.31 [-4.88, -1.29]5.05 [2.79, 6.15]13% [0%, 25%]22%48%-0.28+0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.66 [2.66, 4.80]1.91-3.54 [-4.79, -2.36]4.28 [3.10, 5.34]4% [0%, 12%]33%42%-0.16+0.402026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.66 [2.57, 4.94]1.91-3.54 [-4.90, -2.19]4.28 [2.99, 5.43]4% [0%, 13%]33%42%-0.16+0.402026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.66 [2.57, 5.06]1.91-3.54 [-5.06, -2.19]4.28 [2.98, 5.52]4% [0%, 12%]33%42%-0.16+0.402026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.66 [2.54, 5.00]1.91-3.54 [-5.00, -2.16]4.28 [2.97, 5.46]4% [0%, 13%]33%42%-0.16+0.402026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.57 [2.49, 4.87]2.00-3.39 [-4.85, -2.00]4.26 [2.79, 5.50]8% [0%, 22%]33%50%-0.13+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.57 [2.39, 4.96]2.00-3.39 [-4.95, -1.86]4.26 [2.64, 5.59]8% [0%, 23%]33%50%-0.13+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.57 [2.35, 5.11]2.00-3.39 [-5.11, -1.82]4.26 [2.58, 5.71]8% [0%, 25%]33%50%-0.13+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC3.57 [2.35, 5.06]2.00-3.39 [-5.06, -1.76]4.26 [2.62, 5.70]8% [0%, 24%]33%50%-0.13+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.98 [1.22, 2.51]1.89-0.43 [-0.99, 0.13]2.32 [1.52, 2.79]35% [18%, 60%]48%78%+0.27+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.98 [0.87, 2.46]1.89-0.43 [-1.03, 0.10]2.32 [0.89, 2.73]35% [20%, 69%]48%78%+0.27+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.98 [0.90, 2.53]1.89-0.43 [-1.05, 0.20]2.32 [0.92, 2.81]35% [18%, 67%]48%78%+0.27+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.98 [0.87, 2.48]1.89-0.43 [-0.99, 0.18]2.32 [0.88, 2.75]35% [19%, 67%]48%78%+0.27+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.02 [1.17, 2.56]1.95-0.32 [-0.77, 0.16]2.38 [1.53, 2.81]35% [14%, 67%]48%65%+0.25+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.02 [0.89, 2.54]1.95-0.32 [-0.76, 0.14]2.38 [1.09, 2.80]35% [16%, 81%]48%65%+0.25+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.02 [0.94, 2.57]1.95-0.32 [-0.75, 0.22]2.38 [1.16, 2.82]35% [14%, 78%]48%65%+0.25+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC2.02 [0.80, 2.54]1.95-0.32 [-0.73, 0.17]2.38 [0.90, 2.79]35% [14%, 84%]48%65%+0.25+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.88 [1.30, 2.40]1.85-0.23 [-0.83, 0.45]2.26 [1.46, 2.78]21% [11%, 30%]58%83%+0.30+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.88 [1.20, 2.38]1.85-0.23 [-0.87, 0.53]2.26 [1.34, 2.77]21% [8%, 30%]58%83%+0.30+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.88 [1.19, 2.45]1.85-0.23 [-0.84, 0.52]2.26 [1.35, 2.83]21% [8%, 30%]58%83%+0.30+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.88 [1.16, 2.42]1.85-0.23 [-0.98, 0.50]2.26 [1.29, 2.81]21% [0%, 30%]58%83%+0.30+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.85 [1.21, 2.40]1.81-0.27 [-0.79, 0.37]2.23 [1.38, 2.77]29% [17%, 45%]62%83%+0.30+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.85 [1.10, 2.35]1.81-0.27 [-0.79, 0.46]2.23 [1.19, 2.75]29% [15%, 50%]62%83%+0.30+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.85 [1.10, 2.41]1.81-0.27 [-0.81, 0.52]2.23 [1.20, 2.80]29% [14%, 50%]62%83%+0.30+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.85 [1.04, 2.39]1.81-0.27 [-0.84, 0.41]2.23 [1.13, 2.78]29% [15%, 50%]62%83%+0.30+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-02: -3.55 °F2026-08-09: -4.07 °F2026-08-10: +2.12 °F2026-08-11: +0.31 °F2026-08-12: -6 °F2026-08-13: -3.09 °F2026-08-14: -0.6 °F2026-08-15: +0.13 °F2026-08-16: +4.76 °F2026-08-17: -7.97 °F2026-08-18: -3.05 °F2026-08-19: -6.1 °F2026-08-20: -11.19 °F2026-08-21: -3.59 °F2026-08-22: -3.46 °F2026-08-23: -2.95 °F2026-08-24: -5.39 °F2026-08-25: -2.31 °F2026-08-26: -1.15 °F2026-08-27: -7.14 °F2026-08-28: -9.49 °F2026-08-29: -4.4 °F2026-08-30: -3.16 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.16
2026-08-29-4.40
2026-08-28-9.49
2026-08-27-7.14
2026-08-26-1.15
2026-08-25-2.31
2026-08-24-5.39
2026-08-23-2.95
2026-08-22-3.46
2026-08-21-3.59
2026-08-20-11.19
2026-08-19-6.10
2026-08-18-3.05
2026-08-17-7.97
2026-08-16+4.76
2026-08-15+0.13
2026-08-14-0.60
2026-08-13-3.09
2026-08-12-6.00
2026-08-11+0.31
2026-08-10+2.12
2026-08-09-4.07
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-3.55

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 1-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 8 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.55 · P90 |e| 7.8 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.004
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.008
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08234.17 -3.54

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +2.01 [0.66, 2.90] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -3.36 [-3.36, -3.36] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -0.41 [-1.68, 0.86] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -1.56 [-1.56, -1.56] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +1.07 [-2.09, 4.23] no
NCEP GFS 23 +1.36 [-0.48, 3.36] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -3.20 [-3.20, -3.20] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -1.18 [-2.70, 0.04] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.62 [0.62, 0.62] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +2.12 [-0.16, 4.39] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +1.00 [0.25, 1.89] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence