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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KPHL · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC5.18 [3.03, 8.20]5.06-0.52 [-4.26, 1.82]6.53 [3.62, 8.77]12% [0%, 23%]19%31%-0.15-0.622026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC5.18 [2.74, 8.50]5.06-0.52 [-7.33, 2.01]6.53 [3.10, 8.87]12% [0%, 25%]19%31%-0.15-0.622026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC5.18 [2.65, 8.53]5.06-0.52 [-5.90, 2.01]6.53 [3.04, 8.85]12% [0%, 25%]19%31%-0.15-0.622026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 1 QC5.18 [2.69, 8.53]5.06-0.52 [-5.90, 2.15]6.53 [3.04, 8.81]12% [0%, 25%]19%31%-0.15-0.622026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 1 QC5.39 [3.10, 8.35]5.29-0.38 [-3.96, 1.87]6.69 [3.63, 8.98]12% [0%, 23%]19%31%-0.20-0.692026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 1 QC5.39 [2.82, 8.47]5.29-0.38 [-7.15, 1.99]6.69 [3.11, 9.05]12% [0%, 25%]19%31%-0.20-0.692026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 1 QC5.39 [2.76, 8.65]5.29-0.38 [-5.74, 2.05]6.69 [3.06, 9.11]12% [0%, 25%]19%31%-0.20-0.692026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 1 QC5.39 [2.77, 8.64]5.29-0.38 [-5.74, 2.14]6.69 [3.10, 9.06]12% [0%, 25%]19%31%-0.20-0.692026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC6.44 [4.92, 7.65]5.50-4.35 [-6.74, -0.99]8.08 [6.18, 9.23]20% [0%, 31%]20%33%-0.46-0.732026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC6.44 [3.17, 7.59]5.50-4.35 [-6.88, -0.91]8.08 [3.75, 9.11]20% [0%, 31%]20%33%-0.46-0.732026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC6.44 [3.67, 7.62]5.50-4.35 [-6.88, -0.67]8.08 [4.52, 9.32]20% [0%, 33%]20%33%-0.46-0.732026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 1 QC6.44 [3.85, 7.78]5.50-4.35 [-6.92, -0.79]8.08 [4.77, 9.26]20% [0%, 32%]20%33%-0.46-0.732026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 1 QC6.11 [4.61, 7.16]5.14-4.11 [-6.37, -0.94]7.55 [5.72, 8.65]13% [0%, 21%]27%33%-0.39-0.622026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 1 QC6.11 [2.86, 7.11]5.14-4.11 [-6.49, -0.83]7.55 [3.39, 8.58]13% [0%, 20%]27%33%-0.39-0.622026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 1 QC6.11 [3.31, 7.19]5.14-4.11 [-6.46, -0.64]7.55 [4.10, 8.78]13% [0%, 20%]27%33%-0.39-0.622026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 1 QC6.11 [3.45, 7.28]5.14-4.11 [-6.53, -0.69]7.55 [4.28, 8.70]13% [0%, 20%]27%33%-0.39-0.622026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC4.74 [3.25, 6.03]4.58+1.54 [-0.89, 3.01]5.60 [3.84, 6.90]6% [0%, 18%]25%25%-0.02-0.582026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC4.74 [3.27, 6.14]4.58+1.54 [-2.97, 3.03]5.60 [3.80, 7.00]6% [0%, 20%]25%25%-0.02-0.582026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC4.74 [3.25, 6.20]4.58+1.54 [-2.11, 3.16]5.60 [3.82, 7.05]6% [0%, 20%]25%25%-0.02-0.582026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 1 QC4.74 [3.25, 6.10]4.58+1.54 [-2.11, 3.22]5.60 [3.78, 6.89]6% [0%, 18%]25%25%-0.02-0.582026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 1 QC4.54 [3.14, 5.78]4.45+1.45 [-0.71, 2.91]5.42 [3.73, 6.64]19% [8%, 29%]25%25%+0.02-0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 1 QC4.54 [3.15, 5.87]4.45+1.45 [-2.71, 3.01]5.42 [3.71, 6.76]19% [0%, 30%]25%25%+0.02-0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 1 QC4.54 [3.19, 5.90]4.45+1.45 [-1.83, 3.15]5.42 [3.71, 6.79]19% [0%, 30%]25%25%+0.02-0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 1 QC4.54 [3.19, 5.82]4.45+1.45 [-1.84, 3.27]5.42 [3.71, 6.64]19% [0%, 30%]25%25%+0.02-0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC2.68 [1.77, 3.71]2.70-0.30 [-1.52, 1.27]3.34 [2.06, 4.60]20% [7%, 50%]47%60%+0.36-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC2.68 [1.20, 3.66]2.70-0.30 [-1.45, 1.63]3.34 [1.32, 4.54]20% [6%, 83%]47%60%+0.36-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC2.68 [1.62, 3.81]2.70-0.30 [-1.78, 1.67]3.34 [1.80, 4.74]20% [0%, 75%]47%60%+0.36-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 1 QC2.68 [1.54, 3.72]2.70-0.30 [-1.64, 1.67]3.34 [1.80, 4.62]20% [0%, 75%]47%60%+0.36-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 1 QC2.64 [1.96, 3.49]2.69-0.23 [-1.57, 1.75]3.33 [2.23, 4.59]13% [0%, 25%]47%67%+0.37-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 1 QC2.64 [1.90, 3.44]2.69-0.23 [-1.55, 2.17]3.33 [1.91, 4.52]13% [0%, 25%]47%67%+0.37-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 1 QC2.64 [1.90, 3.54]2.69-0.23 [-1.76, 2.37]3.33 [2.12, 4.65]13% [0%, 25%]47%67%+0.37-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 1 QC2.64 [1.90, 3.48]2.69-0.23 [-1.73, 2.25]3.33 [2.12, 4.56]13% [0%, 25%]47%67%+0.37-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -8.5 °F2026-08-16: +9.51 °F2026-08-17: -9.25 °F2026-08-18: -5.16 °F2026-08-19: -4.75 °F2026-08-20: +7.5 °F2026-08-21: +15.91 °F2026-08-22: -0.42 °F2026-08-23: +1.88 °F2026-08-24: +2.34 °F2026-08-25: -3.18 °F2026-08-26: -4.83 °F2026-08-27: -2.08 °F2026-08-28: -4.11 °F2026-08-29: +0.18 °F2026-08-30: -3.3 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.30
2026-08-29+0.18
2026-08-28-4.11
2026-08-27-2.08
2026-08-26-4.83
2026-08-25-3.18
2026-08-24+2.34
2026-08-23+1.88
2026-08-22-0.42
2026-08-21+15.91
2026-08-20+7.50
2026-08-19-4.75
2026-08-18-5.16
2026-08-17-9.25
2026-08-16+9.51
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10-8.50

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 1 day16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.43 · P90 |e| 9.38 °F-200+20 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.004
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.001
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.001
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08165.18 -0.52

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 +0.85 [-2.27, 7.92] no
NCEP GFS 16 +0.62 [-2.76, 6.09] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -0.40 [-3.13, 5.89] no
Persistence (baseline) 16 +0.68 [-1.06, 5.88] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence