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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KPHL · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC4.54 [3.31, 6.20]4.32-0.99 [-4.16, 1.46]5.81 [4.13, 7.52]16% [0%, 29%]32%42%-0.20-0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC4.54 [3.29, 6.71]4.32-0.99 [-5.35, 1.68]5.81 [4.06, 7.54]16% [0%, 29%]32%42%-0.20-0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC4.54 [3.19, 6.80]4.32-0.99 [-5.36, 1.85]5.81 [3.97, 7.64]16% [0%, 30%]32%42%-0.20-0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC4.54 [3.22, 6.77]4.32-0.99 [-5.19, 1.64]5.81 [4.03, 7.70]16% [0%, 30%]32%42%-0.20-0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC4.51 [3.32, 6.10]4.29-0.73 [-3.79, 1.75]5.70 [3.95, 7.42]16% [0%, 29%]16%42%-0.19-0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC4.51 [3.26, 6.44]4.29-0.73 [-5.01, 1.95]5.70 [3.85, 7.44]16% [0%, 29%]16%42%-0.19-0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC4.51 [3.19, 6.73]4.29-0.73 [-5.15, 2.12]5.70 [3.82, 7.56]16% [0%, 30%]16%42%-0.19-0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC4.51 [3.22, 6.69]4.29-0.73 [-4.80, 1.89]5.70 [3.82, 7.59]16% [0%, 30%]16%42%-0.19-0.232026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.60 [2.94, 4.95]3.07-2.21 [-3.88, -1.23]4.54 [3.66, 5.79]16% [6%, 25%]32%58%+0.05+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.60 [2.92, 5.68]3.07-2.21 [-5.31, -1.14]4.54 [3.53, 6.52]16% [0%, 25%]32%58%+0.05+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.60 [2.84, 5.43]3.07-2.21 [-5.18, -1.05]4.54 [3.45, 6.46]16% [0%, 27%]32%58%+0.05+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.60 [2.88, 5.59]3.07-2.21 [-4.94, -1.19]4.54 [3.57, 6.45]16% [0%, 29%]32%58%+0.05+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC3.54 [2.92, 4.73]2.97-2.09 [-3.74, -1.02]4.46 [3.65, 5.59]16% [0%, 30%]42%63%+0.07+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC3.54 [2.88, 5.54]2.97-2.09 [-5.20, -0.95]4.46 [3.56, 6.21]16% [0%, 33%]42%63%+0.07+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC3.54 [2.82, 5.33]2.97-2.09 [-4.94, -0.91]4.46 [3.48, 6.21]16% [0%, 33%]42%63%+0.07+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC3.54 [2.84, 5.43]2.97-2.09 [-4.73, -1.03]4.46 [3.56, 6.22]16% [0%, 33%]42%63%+0.07+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.14 [2.20, 3.83]3.22+0.53 [-1.30, 1.91]3.60 [2.54, 4.35]5% [0%, 14%]32%53%+0.16+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.14 [2.03, 3.85]3.22+0.53 [-1.48, 2.01]3.60 [2.29, 4.40]5% [0%, 15%]32%53%+0.16+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.14 [2.00, 3.92]3.22+0.53 [-1.45, 2.10]3.60 [2.03, 4.47]5% [0%, 14%]32%53%+0.16+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.14 [1.97, 3.87]3.22+0.53 [-1.45, 1.98]3.60 [2.09, 4.38]5% [0%, 15%]32%53%+0.16+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC3.16 [2.29, 3.90]3.26+0.64 [-1.15, 2.07]3.74 [2.67, 4.56]5% [0%, 14%]37%58%+0.15+0.062026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC3.16 [2.04, 3.93]3.26+0.64 [-1.35, 2.20]3.74 [2.35, 4.59]5% [0%, 15%]37%58%+0.15+0.062026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC3.16 [2.00, 4.01]3.26+0.64 [-1.35, 2.30]3.74 [2.07, 4.68]5% [0%, 14%]37%58%+0.15+0.062026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC3.16 [1.98, 3.93]3.26+0.64 [-1.35, 2.12]3.74 [2.29, 4.62]5% [0%, 15%]37%58%+0.15+0.062026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.26 [2.66, 3.89]3.16-0.38 [-2.65, 1.15]3.67 [2.97, 4.32]5% [0%, 17%]26%42%+0.13+0.092026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.26 [2.63, 3.98]3.16-0.38 [-2.90, 1.55]3.67 [2.90, 4.44]5% [0%, 18%]26%42%+0.13+0.092026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.26 [2.62, 4.04]3.16-0.38 [-2.90, 1.46]3.67 [2.88, 4.53]5% [0%, 17%]26%42%+0.13+0.092026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.26 [2.65, 4.04]3.16-0.38 [-2.93, 1.40]3.67 [2.89, 4.52]5% [0%, 17%]26%42%+0.13+0.092026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC3.19 [2.61, 3.81]3.14-0.28 [-2.53, 1.26]3.65 [3.01, 4.22]5% [0%, 17%]26%53%+0.15+0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC3.19 [2.59, 3.93]3.14-0.28 [-2.81, 1.66]3.65 [2.80, 4.30]5% [0%, 18%]26%53%+0.15+0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC3.19 [2.60, 3.99]3.14-0.28 [-2.80, 1.63]3.65 [2.80, 4.40]5% [0%, 17%]26%53%+0.15+0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC3.19 [2.60, 4.00]3.14-0.28 [-2.84, 1.63]3.65 [2.80, 4.36]5% [0%, 17%]26%53%+0.15+0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: -7.13 °F2026-08-13: -2.49 °F2026-08-14: -4.63 °F2026-08-15: -6.96 °F2026-08-16: +14.99 °F2026-08-17: +4.04 °F2026-08-18: +1.84 °F2026-08-19: -4.39 °F2026-08-20: +10.44 °F2026-08-21: -0.28 °F2026-08-22: +0.45 °F2026-08-23: -5.49 °F2026-08-24: -1.37 °F2026-08-25: -2.49 °F2026-08-26: -6.03 °F2026-08-27: -0.29 °F2026-08-28: -6.41 °F2026-08-29: +1.96 °F2026-08-30: -4.58 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.58
2026-08-29+1.96
2026-08-28-6.41
2026-08-27-0.29
2026-08-26-6.03
2026-08-25-2.49
2026-08-24-1.37
2026-08-23-5.49
2026-08-22+0.45
2026-08-21-0.28
2026-08-20+10.44
2026-08-19-4.39
2026-08-18+1.84
2026-08-17+4.04
2026-08-16+14.99
2026-08-15-6.96
2026-08-14-4.63
2026-08-13-2.49
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-7.13

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 1 day12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 1 day16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.39 · P90 |e| 7.79 °F-200+20 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.004
-6.00-4.004
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.001
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.001
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08194.54 -0.99

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 +0.99 [-0.49, 3.43] no
NCEP GFS 19 +0.45 [-1.05, 3.97] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 +0.20 [-1.10, 1.95] no
Persistence (baseline) 19 +0.75 [-0.81, 2.78] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence