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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KPHL · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.29 [2.76, 4.19]2.25-3.09 [-4.11, -2.45]4.18 [3.41, 5.13]23% [8%, 40%]36%50%-0.01+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.29 [2.67, 4.44]2.25-3.09 [-4.38, -2.43]4.18 [3.26, 5.53]23% [5%, 43%]36%50%-0.01+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.29 [2.53, 4.45]2.25-3.09 [-4.45, -2.25]4.18 [2.98, 5.50]23% [0%, 43%]36%50%-0.01+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.29 [2.58, 4.53]2.25-3.09 [-4.47, -2.31]4.18 [3.06, 5.50]23% [0%, 43%]36%50%-0.01+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.46 [2.82, 4.26]2.37-2.97 [-4.04, -2.30]4.25 [3.33, 5.11]9% [0%, 23%]41%45%-0.06+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.46 [2.66, 4.52]2.37-2.97 [-4.24, -2.18]4.25 [3.04, 5.39]9% [0%, 25%]41%45%-0.06+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.46 [2.53, 4.56]2.37-2.97 [-4.39, -2.02]4.25 [2.76, 5.43]9% [0%, 25%]41%45%-0.06+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.46 [2.61, 4.44]2.37-2.97 [-4.27, -2.10]4.25 [3.07, 5.41]9% [0%, 27%]41%45%-0.06+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.04 [3.33, 4.93]2.60-3.42 [-4.33, -2.80]4.91 [4.07, 5.84]14% [0%, 23%]23%41%-0.23+0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.04 [3.14, 5.08]2.60-3.42 [-4.45, -2.70]4.91 [3.81, 5.94]14% [0%, 23%]23%41%-0.23+0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.04 [3.01, 5.22]2.60-3.42 [-4.64, -2.56]4.91 [3.67, 6.06]14% [0%, 24%]23%41%-0.23+0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.04 [3.10, 5.19]2.60-3.42 [-4.49, -2.71]4.91 [3.84, 6.03]14% [0%, 25%]23%41%-0.23+0.162026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.78 [3.02, 4.59]2.53-3.12 [-4.00, -2.41]4.66 [3.63, 5.61]14% [0%, 23%]36%41%-0.15+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.78 [2.78, 4.72]2.53-3.12 [-4.22, -2.17]4.66 [3.33, 5.68]14% [0%, 23%]36%41%-0.15+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.78 [2.70, 4.94]2.53-3.12 [-4.29, -2.06]4.66 [3.16, 5.82]14% [0%, 24%]36%41%-0.15+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.78 [2.75, 4.85]2.53-3.12 [-4.23, -2.14]4.66 [3.34, 5.76]14% [0%, 25%]36%41%-0.15+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.67 [1.96, 3.32]2.61+0.62 [-0.05, 1.68]2.99 [2.33, 3.53]14% [0%, 32%]32%55%+0.24+0.222026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.67 [1.88, 3.37]2.61+0.62 [0.02, 2.00]2.99 [2.21, 3.57]14% [0%, 34%]32%55%+0.24+0.222026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.67 [1.85, 3.41]2.61+0.62 [0.00, 2.11]2.99 [2.18, 3.59]14% [0%, 33%]32%55%+0.24+0.222026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.67 [1.92, 3.37]2.61+0.62 [-0.01, 2.40]2.99 [2.21, 3.56]14% [0%, 33%]32%55%+0.24+0.222026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.80 [2.11, 3.45]2.73+0.60 [-0.13, 1.79]3.17 [2.51, 3.73]14% [3%, 27%]36%41%+0.20+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.80 [2.03, 3.54]2.73+0.60 [-0.05, 2.19]3.17 [2.41, 3.77]14% [0%, 29%]36%41%+0.20+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.80 [2.03, 3.61]2.73+0.60 [-0.07, 2.28]3.17 [2.36, 3.79]14% [0%, 29%]36%41%+0.20+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC2.80 [2.09, 3.58]2.73+0.60 [-0.08, 2.66]3.17 [2.43, 3.78]14% [0%, 27%]36%41%+0.20+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.52 [1.67, 3.33]2.51-0.22 [-1.28, 0.67]2.98 [2.06, 3.64]23% [8%, 38%]41%64%+0.28+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.52 [1.47, 3.31]2.51-0.22 [-1.45, 0.76]2.98 [1.77, 3.61]23% [5%, 41%]41%64%+0.28+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.52 [1.45, 3.45]2.51-0.22 [-1.46, 0.74]2.98 [1.57, 3.72]23% [0%, 43%]41%64%+0.28+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.52 [1.45, 3.34]2.51-0.22 [-1.45, 0.69]2.98 [1.45, 3.64]23% [0%, 40%]41%64%+0.28+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.67 [1.79, 3.42]2.64-0.26 [-1.32, 0.76]3.09 [2.25, 3.69]23% [8%, 50%]41%55%+0.24+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.67 [1.45, 3.37]2.64-0.26 [-1.40, 1.04]3.09 [1.97, 3.67]23% [8%, 67%]41%55%+0.24+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.67 [1.55, 3.56]2.64-0.26 [-1.43, 0.91]3.09 [1.92, 3.77]23% [7%, 67%]41%55%+0.24+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.67 [1.29, 3.43]2.64-0.26 [-1.37, 0.80]3.09 [1.60, 3.71]23% [7%, 67%]41%55%+0.24+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -7.53 °F2026-08-10: -0.41 °F2026-08-11: -8.43 °F2026-08-12: -3.59 °F2026-08-13: -0.06 °F2026-08-14: -6.65 °F2026-08-15: -0.61 °F2026-08-16: +1.99 °F2026-08-17: -3.34 °F2026-08-18: -0.33 °F2026-08-19: -4.57 °F2026-08-20: -8.87 °F2026-08-21: -1.49 °F2026-08-22: -3.82 °F2026-08-23: -2.56 °F2026-08-24: -3.67 °F2026-08-25: -1.02 °F2026-08-26: -4.15 °F2026-08-27: -2.63 °F2026-08-28: -4.19 °F2026-08-29: +0.21 °F2026-08-30: -2.28 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.28
2026-08-29+0.21
2026-08-28-4.19
2026-08-27-2.63
2026-08-26-4.15
2026-08-25-1.02
2026-08-24-3.67
2026-08-23-2.56
2026-08-22-3.82
2026-08-21-1.49
2026-08-20-8.87
2026-08-19-4.57
2026-08-18-0.33
2026-08-17-3.34
2026-08-16+1.99
2026-08-15-0.61
2026-08-14-6.65
2026-08-13-0.06
2026-08-12-3.59
2026-08-11-8.43
2026-08-10-0.41
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-7.53

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.99 · P90 |e| 7.45 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.002
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.29 -3.09

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.99 [0.39, 1.93] yes
NCEP GFS 22 -0.22 [-1.36, 0.67] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.91 [-2.08, 0.28] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.02 [-1.20, 2.24] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence