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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Phoenix Sky Harbor · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 2

KPHX · aurora_ifs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC10.42 [10.42, 10.42]0.00-10.42 [-10.42, -10.42]10.42 [10.42, 10.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.74—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC10.42 [10.42, 10.42]0.00-10.42 [-10.42, -10.42]10.42 [10.42, 10.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.74—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC10.42 [10.42, 10.42]0.00-10.42 [-10.42, -10.42]10.42 [10.42, 10.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.74—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC10.42 [10.42, 10.42]0.00-10.42 [-10.42, -10.42]10.42 [10.42, 10.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.74—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC10.05 [10.05, 10.05]0.00-10.05 [-10.05, -10.05]10.05 [10.05, 10.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.67—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC10.05 [10.05, 10.05]0.00-10.05 [-10.05, -10.05]10.05 [10.05, 10.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.67—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC10.05 [10.05, 10.05]0.00-10.05 [-10.05, -10.05]10.05 [10.05, 10.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.67—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC10.05 [10.05, 10.05]0.00-10.05 [-10.05, -10.05]10.05 [10.05, 10.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.67—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC9.19 [9.19, 9.19]0.00-9.19 [-9.19, -9.19]9.19 [9.19, 9.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.53—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC9.19 [9.19, 9.19]0.00-9.19 [-9.19, -9.19]9.19 [9.19, 9.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.53—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC9.19 [9.19, 9.19]0.00-9.19 [-9.19, -9.19]9.19 [9.19, 9.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.53—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall1 1 QC9.19 [9.19, 9.19]0.00-9.19 [-9.19, -9.19]9.19 [9.19, 9.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.53—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d1 1 QC8.77 [8.77, 8.77]0.00-8.77 [-8.77, -8.77]8.77 [8.77, 8.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.46—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d1 1 QC8.77 [8.77, 8.77]0.00-8.77 [-8.77, -8.77]8.77 [8.77, 8.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.46—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d1 1 QC8.77 [8.77, 8.77]0.00-8.77 [-8.77, -8.77]8.77 [8.77, 8.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.46—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall1 1 QC8.77 [8.77, 8.77]0.00-8.77 [-8.77, -8.77]8.77 [8.77, 8.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.46—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC5.20 [5.20, 5.20]0.00-5.20 [-5.20, -5.20]5.20 [5.20, 5.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.13—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC5.20 [5.20, 5.20]0.00-5.20 [-5.20, -5.20]5.20 [5.20, 5.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.13—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC5.20 [5.20, 5.20]0.00-5.20 [-5.20, -5.20]5.20 [5.20, 5.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.13—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC5.20 [5.20, 5.20]0.00-5.20 [-5.20, -5.20]5.20 [5.20, 5.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.13—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC4.86 [4.86, 4.86]0.00-4.86 [-4.86, -4.86]4.86 [4.86, 4.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.19—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC4.86 [4.86, 4.86]0.00-4.86 [-4.86, -4.86]4.86 [4.86, 4.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.19—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC4.86 [4.86, 4.86]0.00-4.86 [-4.86, -4.86]4.86 [4.86, 4.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.19—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC4.86 [4.86, 4.86]0.00-4.86 [-4.86, -4.86]4.86 [4.86, 4.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.19—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC4.39 [4.39, 4.39]0.00-4.39 [-4.39, -4.39]4.39 [4.39, 4.39]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.27—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC4.39 [4.39, 4.39]0.00-4.39 [-4.39, -4.39]4.39 [4.39, 4.39]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.27—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC4.39 [4.39, 4.39]0.00-4.39 [-4.39, -4.39]4.39 [4.39, 4.39]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.27—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall1 1 QC4.39 [4.39, 4.39]0.00-4.39 [-4.39, -4.39]4.39 [4.39, 4.39]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.27—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d1 1 QC4.03 [4.03, 4.03]0.00-4.03 [-4.03, -4.03]4.03 [4.03, 4.03]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.33—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d1 1 QC4.03 [4.03, 4.03]0.00-4.03 [-4.03, -4.03]4.03 [4.03, 4.03]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.33—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d1 1 QC4.03 [4.03, 4.03]0.00-4.03 [-4.03, -4.03]4.03 [4.03, 4.03]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.33—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall1 1 QC4.03 [4.03, 4.03]0.00-4.03 [-4.03, -4.03]4.03 [4.03, 4.03]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.33—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KPHX, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-30: -10.42 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-10.42

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KPHX, lead day 2-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 10.42 · P90 |e| 10.42 °F-200+20 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.000
-4.00-2.000
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08110.42 -10.42

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 -0.55 [-0.55, -0.55] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -1.28 [-1.28, -1.28] yes
NCEP GFS 1 +6.53 [6.53, 6.53] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 +1.81 [1.81, 1.81] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 +6.51 [6.51, 6.51] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +3.42 [3.42, 3.42] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 +4.42 [4.42, 4.42] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHX aurora_ifs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHX (Phoenix Sky Harbor), model aurora_ifs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence