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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Phoenix Sky Harbor · Pangu-Weather (IFS init) · lead day 2

KPHX · pangu_ifs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC7.00 [7.00, 7.00]0.00-7.00 [-7.00, -7.00]7.00 [7.00, 7.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.17—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC7.00 [7.00, 7.00]0.00-7.00 [-7.00, -7.00]7.00 [7.00, 7.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.17—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC7.00 [7.00, 7.00]0.00-7.00 [-7.00, -7.00]7.00 [7.00, 7.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.17—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC7.00 [7.00, 7.00]0.00-7.00 [-7.00, -7.00]7.00 [7.00, 7.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.17—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC7.11 [7.11, 7.11]0.00-7.11 [-7.11, -7.11]7.11 [7.11, 7.11]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.19—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC7.11 [7.11, 7.11]0.00-7.11 [-7.11, -7.11]7.11 [7.11, 7.11]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.19—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC7.11 [7.11, 7.11]0.00-7.11 [-7.11, -7.11]7.11 [7.11, 7.11]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.19—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC7.11 [7.11, 7.11]0.00-7.11 [-7.11, -7.11]7.11 [7.11, 7.11]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.19—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC7.26 [7.26, 7.26]0.00-7.26 [-7.26, -7.26]7.26 [7.26, 7.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC7.26 [7.26, 7.26]0.00-7.26 [-7.26, -7.26]7.26 [7.26, 7.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC7.26 [7.26, 7.26]0.00-7.26 [-7.26, -7.26]7.26 [7.26, 7.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall1 1 QC7.26 [7.26, 7.26]0.00-7.26 [-7.26, -7.26]7.26 [7.26, 7.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d1 1 QC7.33 [7.33, 7.33]0.00-7.33 [-7.33, -7.33]7.33 [7.33, 7.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.22—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d1 1 QC7.33 [7.33, 7.33]0.00-7.33 [-7.33, -7.33]7.33 [7.33, 7.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.22—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d1 1 QC7.33 [7.33, 7.33]0.00-7.33 [-7.33, -7.33]7.33 [7.33, 7.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.22—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall1 1 QC7.33 [7.33, 7.33]0.00-7.33 [-7.33, -7.33]7.33 [7.33, 7.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.22—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.83 [0.83, 0.83]0.00-0.83 [-0.83, -0.83]0.83 [0.83, 0.83]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.86—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.83 [0.83, 0.83]0.00-0.83 [-0.83, -0.83]0.83 [0.83, 0.83]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.86—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.83 [0.83, 0.83]0.00-0.83 [-0.83, -0.83]0.83 [0.83, 0.83]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.86—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.83 [0.83, 0.83]0.00-0.83 [-0.83, -0.83]0.83 [0.83, 0.83]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.86—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC0.99 [0.99, 0.99]0.00-0.99 [-0.99, -0.99]0.99 [0.99, 0.99]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.83—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC0.99 [0.99, 0.99]0.00-0.99 [-0.99, -0.99]0.99 [0.99, 0.99]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.83—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC0.99 [0.99, 0.99]0.00-0.99 [-0.99, -0.99]0.99 [0.99, 0.99]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.83—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC0.99 [0.99, 0.99]0.00-0.99 [-0.99, -0.99]0.99 [0.99, 0.99]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.83—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC2.40 [2.40, 2.40]0.00-2.40 [-2.40, -2.40]2.40 [2.40, 2.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.60—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC2.40 [2.40, 2.40]0.00-2.40 [-2.40, -2.40]2.40 [2.40, 2.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.60—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC2.40 [2.40, 2.40]0.00-2.40 [-2.40, -2.40]2.40 [2.40, 2.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.60—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall1 1 QC2.40 [2.40, 2.40]0.00-2.40 [-2.40, -2.40]2.40 [2.40, 2.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.60—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d1 1 QC2.04 [2.04, 2.04]0.00-2.04 [-2.04, -2.04]2.04 [2.04, 2.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.66—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d1 1 QC2.04 [2.04, 2.04]0.00-2.04 [-2.04, -2.04]2.04 [2.04, 2.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.66—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d1 1 QC2.04 [2.04, 2.04]0.00-2.04 [-2.04, -2.04]2.04 [2.04, 2.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.66—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall1 1 QC2.04 [2.04, 2.04]0.00-2.04 [-2.04, -2.04]2.04 [2.04, 2.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.66—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KPHX, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-30: -7 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-7.00

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KPHX, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 7 · P90 |e| 7 °F-100+10 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0817.00 -7.00

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 -3.98 [-3.98, -3.98] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -3.42 [-3.42, -3.42] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -4.71 [-4.71, -4.71] yes
NCEP GFS 1 +3.10 [3.10, 3.10] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 -1.62 [-1.62, -1.62] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 +3.08 [3.08, 3.08] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 +1.00 [1.00, 1.00] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHX pangu_ifs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/pangu_ifs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHX (Phoenix Sky Harbor), model pangu_ifs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/pangu_ifs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence