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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Phoenix Sky Harbor · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KPHX · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.79 [2.04, 3.64]1.91-2.42 [-3.47, -1.57]3.39 [2.45, 4.29]22% [4%, 43%]39%61%+0.37+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.79 [2.01, 3.73]1.91-2.42 [-3.52, -1.57]3.39 [2.43, 4.39]22% [0%, 50%]39%61%+0.37+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.79 [1.96, 3.81]1.91-2.42 [-3.60, -1.54]3.39 [2.32, 4.47]22% [0%, 45%]39%61%+0.37+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.79 [1.96, 3.79]1.91-2.42 [-3.60, -1.56]3.39 [2.36, 4.37]22% [0%, 50%]39%61%+0.37+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.75 [2.05, 3.58]1.81-2.34 [-3.38, -1.50]3.30 [2.40, 4.20]17% [3%, 35%]39%61%+0.37+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.75 [2.03, 3.68]1.81-2.34 [-3.42, -1.50]3.30 [2.38, 4.28]17% [0%, 39%]39%61%+0.37+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.75 [1.98, 3.73]1.81-2.34 [-3.53, -1.47]3.30 [2.30, 4.36]17% [0%, 38%]39%61%+0.37+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC2.75 [2.00, 3.73]1.81-2.34 [-3.52, -1.50]3.30 [2.31, 4.30]17% [0%, 40%]39%61%+0.37+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.36 [1.58, 3.24]1.60-2.03 [-2.99, -1.24]2.85 [1.99, 3.64]18% [3%, 35%]45%68%+0.45+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.36 [1.52, 3.54]1.60-2.03 [-3.17, -1.13]2.85 [1.90, 3.81]18% [0%, 40%]45%68%+0.45+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.36 [1.48, 3.50]1.60-2.03 [-3.13, -1.22]2.85 [1.86, 3.79]18% [0%, 38%]45%68%+0.45+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.36 [1.46, 3.70]1.60-2.03 [-3.61, -1.13]2.85 [1.88, 4.02]18% [0%, 38%]45%68%+0.45+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.33 [1.55, 3.20]1.56-1.99 [-2.95, -1.20]2.84 [1.90, 3.64]18% [3%, 35%]45%68%+0.46+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.33 [1.41, 3.43]1.56-1.99 [-3.05, -1.03]2.84 [1.85, 3.78]18% [0%, 40%]45%68%+0.46+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.33 [1.43, 3.35]1.56-1.99 [-3.00, -1.17]2.84 [1.81, 3.73]18% [0%, 38%]45%68%+0.46+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC2.33 [1.38, 3.68]1.56-1.99 [-3.47, -1.08]2.84 [1.80, 3.86]18% [0%, 38%]45%68%+0.46+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.36 [2.06, 4.62]3.38+1.11 [-0.86, 3.29]4.40 [2.49, 5.87]17% [5%, 32%]39%61%+0.39+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.36 [1.77, 4.67]3.38+1.11 [-0.94, 3.45]4.40 [2.01, 5.90]17% [0%, 38%]39%61%+0.39+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.36 [1.79, 4.73]3.38+1.11 [-0.97, 3.59]4.40 [2.07, 6.04]17% [0%, 35%]39%61%+0.39+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.36 [1.54, 4.66]3.38+1.11 [-1.15, 3.61]4.40 [1.81, 5.94]17% [0%, 40%]39%61%+0.39+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.48 [2.05, 4.90]3.50+1.85 [-0.26, 4.01]4.73 [2.73, 6.31]30% [14%, 53%]39%52%+0.36+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.48 [1.61, 4.96]3.50+1.85 [-0.23, 4.24]4.73 [1.99, 6.41]30% [14%, 57%]39%52%+0.36+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.48 [1.70, 4.93]3.50+1.85 [-0.35, 4.41]4.73 [2.00, 6.47]30% [14%, 54%]39%52%+0.36+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC3.48 [1.40, 4.93]3.50+1.85 [-0.50, 4.44]4.73 [1.80, 6.40]30% [11%, 60%]39%52%+0.36+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.32 [2.02, 4.61]3.43+0.77 [-1.40, 3.18]4.44 [2.59, 6.00]14% [0%, 33%]45%59%+0.39+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.32 [1.72, 4.65]3.43+0.77 [-1.66, 3.47]4.44 [2.26, 6.07]14% [0%, 45%]45%59%+0.39+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.32 [1.79, 4.68]3.43+0.77 [-1.69, 3.44]4.44 [2.37, 6.08]14% [0%, 40%]45%59%+0.39+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.32 [1.53, 4.58]3.43+0.77 [-1.77, 3.43]4.44 [2.21, 6.04]14% [0%, 50%]45%59%+0.39+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.55 [2.37, 4.93]3.55+1.45 [-0.85, 3.98]4.78 [2.92, 6.42]14% [0%, 26%]36%64%+0.34+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.55 [2.07, 4.97]3.55+1.45 [-1.12, 4.19]4.78 [2.60, 6.53]14% [0%, 26%]36%64%+0.34+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.55 [2.16, 4.95]3.55+1.45 [-1.16, 4.23]4.78 [2.73, 6.54]14% [0%, 28%]36%64%+0.34+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC3.55 [2.01, 5.03]3.55+1.45 [-1.28, 4.24]4.78 [2.51, 6.53]14% [0%, 25%]36%64%+0.34+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -3.28 °F2026-08-08: +0.65 °F2026-08-09: +0.67 °F2026-08-10: -7.25 °F2026-08-11: -0.92 °F2026-08-13: -7.06 °F2026-08-14: -4.85 °F2026-08-15: -3.34 °F2026-08-16: -4.2 °F2026-08-17: -2.24 °F2026-08-18: -2.1 °F2026-08-19: +0.21 °F2026-08-20: -4 °F2026-08-21: +0.26 °F2026-08-22: -1.35 °F2026-08-23: -2.78 °F2026-08-24: -1.48 °F2026-08-25: -1.96 °F2026-08-26: -2.7 °F2026-08-27: +2.49 °F2026-08-28: -1.27 °F2026-08-29: -5.14 °F2026-08-30: -3.91 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.91
2026-08-29-5.14
2026-08-28-1.27
2026-08-27+2.49
2026-08-26-2.70
2026-08-25-1.96
2026-08-24-1.48
2026-08-23-2.78
2026-08-22-1.35
2026-08-21+0.26
2026-08-20-4.00
2026-08-19+0.21
2026-08-18-2.10
2026-08-17-2.24
2026-08-16-4.20
2026-08-15-3.34
2026-08-14-4.85
2026-08-13-7.06
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-0.92
2026-08-10-7.25
2026-08-09+0.67
2026-08-08+0.65
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-3.28

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.49 · P90 |e| 5.08 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.79 -2.42

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.83 [-2.68, 0.59] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -6.51 [-6.51, -6.51] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -7.79 [-7.79, -7.79] yes
NCEP GFS 23 -0.27 [-1.48, 1.14] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -0.95 [-1.97, -0.00] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -3.08 [-3.08, -3.08] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 -1.60 [-2.76, 0.37] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHX ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHX (Phoenix Sky Harbor), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence