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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 2

KEWR · aurora_ifs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.00-0.55 [-0.55, -0.55]0.55 [0.55, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.91—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.00-0.55 [-0.55, -0.55]0.55 [0.55, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.91—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.00-0.55 [-0.55, -0.55]0.55 [0.55, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.91—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.00-0.55 [-0.55, -0.55]0.55 [0.55, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.91—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC0.17 [0.17, 0.17]0.00-0.17 [-0.17, -0.17]0.17 [0.17, 0.17]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC0.17 [0.17, 0.17]0.00-0.17 [-0.17, -0.17]0.17 [0.17, 0.17]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC0.17 [0.17, 0.17]0.00-0.17 [-0.17, -0.17]0.17 [0.17, 0.17]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC0.17 [0.17, 0.17]0.00-0.17 [-0.17, -0.17]0.17 [0.17, 0.17]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0.00-1.92 [-1.92, -1.92]1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0.00-1.92 [-1.92, -1.92]1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0.00-1.92 [-1.92, -1.92]1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall1 1 QC1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0.00-1.92 [-1.92, -1.92]1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d1 1 QC1.90 [1.90, 1.90]0.00-1.90 [-1.90, -1.90]1.90 [1.90, 1.90]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d1 1 QC1.90 [1.90, 1.90]0.00-1.90 [-1.90, -1.90]1.90 [1.90, 1.90]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d1 1 QC1.90 [1.90, 1.90]0.00-1.90 [-1.90, -1.90]1.90 [1.90, 1.90]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall1 1 QC1.90 [1.90, 1.90]0.00-1.90 [-1.90, -1.90]1.90 [1.90, 1.90]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC1.38 [1.38, 1.38]0.00+1.38 [1.38, 1.38]1.38 [1.38, 1.38]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC1.38 [1.38, 1.38]0.00+1.38 [1.38, 1.38]1.38 [1.38, 1.38]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC1.38 [1.38, 1.38]0.00+1.38 [1.38, 1.38]1.38 [1.38, 1.38]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC1.38 [1.38, 1.38]0.00+1.38 [1.38, 1.38]1.38 [1.38, 1.38]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.00-0.15 [-0.15, -0.15]0.15 [0.15, 0.15]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.00-0.15 [-0.15, -0.15]0.15 [0.15, 0.15]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.00-0.15 [-0.15, -0.15]0.15 [0.15, 0.15]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.00-0.15 [-0.15, -0.15]0.15 [0.15, 0.15]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.38 [0.38, 0.38]0.00+0.38 [0.38, 0.38]0.38 [0.38, 0.38]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.92—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.38 [0.38, 0.38]0.00+0.38 [0.38, 0.38]0.38 [0.38, 0.38]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.92—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.38 [0.38, 0.38]0.00+0.38 [0.38, 0.38]0.38 [0.38, 0.38]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.92—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.38 [0.38, 0.38]0.00+0.38 [0.38, 0.38]0.38 [0.38, 0.38]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.92—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d1 1 QC1.14 [1.14, 1.14]0.00-1.14 [-1.14, -1.14]1.14 [1.14, 1.14]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.77—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d1 1 QC1.14 [1.14, 1.14]0.00-1.14 [-1.14, -1.14]1.14 [1.14, 1.14]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.77—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d1 1 QC1.14 [1.14, 1.14]0.00-1.14 [-1.14, -1.14]1.14 [1.14, 1.14]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.77—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall1 1 QC1.14 [1.14, 1.14]0.00-1.14 [-1.14, -1.14]1.14 [1.14, 1.14]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.77—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KEWR, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+1+0.50-0.5-12026-08-30: -0.55 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.55

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KEWR, lead day 2-1 to -0.9 °F: 0 days-0.9 to -0.8 °F: 0 days-0.8 to -0.7 °F: 0 days-0.7 to -0.6 °F: 0 days-0.6 to -0.5 °F: 1 day-0.5 to -0.4 °F: 0 days-0.4 to -0.3 °F: 0 days-0.3 to -0.2 °F: 0 days-0.2 to -0.1 °F: 0 days-0.1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.1 °F: 0 days0.1 to 0.2 °F: 0 days0.2 to 0.3 °F: 0 days0.3 to 0.4 °F: 0 days0.4 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 0.6 °F: 0 days0.6 to 0.7 °F: 0 days0.7 to 0.8 °F: 0 days0.8 to 0.9 °F: 0 days0.9 to 1 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 0.55 · P90 |e| 0.55 °F-10+1 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-1.00-0.900
-0.90-0.800
-0.80-0.700
-0.70-0.600
-0.60-0.501
-0.50-0.400
-0.40-0.300
-0.30-0.200
-0.20-0.100
-0.10+0.000
+0.00+0.100
+0.10+0.200
+0.20+0.300
+0.30+0.400
+0.40+0.500
+0.50+0.600
+0.60+0.700
+0.70+0.800
+0.80+0.900
+0.90+1.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0810.55 -0.55

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 +0.16 [0.16, 0.16] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -1.54 [-1.54, -1.54] yes
NCEP GFS 1 -4.15 [-4.15, -4.15] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 -1.48 [-1.48, -1.48] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 -0.32 [-0.32, -0.32] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -0.84 [-0.84, -0.84] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 -5.45 [-5.45, -5.45] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR aurora_ifs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model aurora_ifs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence