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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.75 [2.68, 4.78]2.14-3.59 [-4.68, -2.47]4.34 [3.27, 5.16]23% [7%, 40%]23%41%-0.40+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.75 [2.53, 5.20]2.14-3.59 [-5.16, -2.27]4.34 [3.20, 5.47]23% [0%, 45%]23%41%-0.40+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.75 [2.46, 5.18]2.14-3.59 [-5.14, -2.12]4.34 [2.99, 5.41]23% [0%, 46%]23%41%-0.40+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.75 [2.53, 5.22]2.14-3.59 [-5.21, -2.26]4.34 [3.18, 5.45]23% [0%, 45%]23%41%-0.40+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.72 [2.47, 4.82]2.28-3.43 [-4.65, -2.22]4.33 [3.11, 5.18]18% [4%, 33%]32%41%-0.39+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.72 [2.44, 5.13]2.28-3.43 [-5.10, -1.99]4.33 [3.06, 5.37]18% [0%, 33%]32%41%-0.39+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.72 [2.28, 5.14]2.28-3.43 [-5.14, -1.84]4.33 [2.87, 5.34]18% [0%, 33%]32%41%-0.39+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.72 [2.40, 5.15]2.28-3.43 [-5.15, -1.97]4.33 [3.03, 5.39]18% [0%, 33%]32%41%-0.39+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.30 [2.76, 5.77]2.53-4.11 [-5.47, -2.62]5.21 [3.54, 6.36]9% [0%, 29%]23%36%-0.63+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.30 [2.47, 6.04]2.53-4.11 [-5.80, -2.26]5.21 [3.22, 6.62]9% [0%, 33%]23%36%-0.63+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.30 [2.34, 6.01]2.53-4.11 [-5.84, -2.11]5.21 [2.66, 6.66]9% [0%, 33%]23%36%-0.63+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.30 [2.34, 6.11]2.53-4.11 [-6.02, -2.19]5.21 [2.68, 6.76]9% [0%, 33%]23%36%-0.63+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.39 [2.80, 5.93]2.72-4.00 [-5.52, -2.29]5.30 [3.53, 6.49]9% [0%, 18%]23%36%-0.67-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.39 [2.59, 6.25]2.72-4.00 [-5.85, -1.95]5.30 [3.26, 6.77]9% [0%, 19%]23%36%-0.67-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.39 [2.44, 6.23]2.72-4.00 [-5.90, -1.78]5.30 [2.70, 6.78]9% [0%, 19%]23%36%-0.67-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC4.39 [2.44, 6.26]2.72-4.00 [-5.99, -1.82]5.30 [2.76, 6.88]9% [0%, 19%]23%36%-0.67-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.52 [1.69, 3.41]2.05+1.82 [1.03, 2.70]3.22 [2.24, 3.84]23% [0%, 45%]45%68%+0.36+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.52 [1.59, 3.40]2.05+1.82 [1.04, 2.78]3.22 [2.10, 3.90]23% [0%, 49%]45%68%+0.36+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.52 [1.62, 3.47]2.05+1.82 [0.98, 2.86]3.22 [2.12, 3.95]23% [0%, 50%]45%68%+0.36+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.52 [1.54, 3.46]2.05+1.82 [1.00, 2.75]3.22 [2.06, 3.89]23% [0%, 48%]45%68%+0.36+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.34 [1.63, 3.02]2.07+1.20 [0.39, 2.11]2.96 [2.09, 3.50]18% [0%, 35%]64%73%+0.41+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.34 [1.55, 3.02]2.07+1.20 [0.40, 2.18]2.96 [1.90, 3.55]18% [0%, 38%]64%73%+0.41+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.34 [1.56, 3.09]2.07+1.20 [0.29, 2.26]2.96 [1.92, 3.56]18% [0%, 38%]64%73%+0.41+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC2.34 [1.53, 3.08]2.07+1.20 [0.36, 2.23]2.96 [1.89, 3.53]18% [0%, 38%]64%73%+0.41+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.12 [1.37, 2.82]1.50+1.57 [0.91, 2.34]2.62 [1.68, 3.17]32% [14%, 50%]50%73%+0.44+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.12 [1.24, 2.90]1.50+1.57 [0.87, 2.51]2.62 [1.46, 3.17]32% [12%, 54%]50%73%+0.44+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.12 [1.20, 2.92]1.50+1.57 [0.84, 2.56]2.62 [1.39, 3.22]32% [12%, 56%]50%73%+0.44+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.12 [1.28, 2.93]1.50+1.57 [0.91, 2.45]2.62 [1.54, 3.19]32% [9%, 50%]50%73%+0.44+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC1.70 [1.05, 2.31]1.57+0.79 [0.11, 1.59]2.29 [1.45, 2.83]36% [13%, 67%]68%86%+0.55+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC1.70 [0.91, 2.45]1.57+0.79 [0.05, 1.81]2.29 [1.29, 2.87]36% [11%, 75%]68%86%+0.55+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC1.70 [0.83, 2.42]1.57+0.79 [0.03, 1.91]2.29 [1.17, 2.87]36% [11%, 80%]68%86%+0.55+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC1.70 [0.96, 2.47]1.57+0.79 [0.05, 1.74]2.29 [1.32, 2.87]36% [8%, 75%]68%86%+0.55+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -6.93 °F2026-08-08: -5.2 °F2026-08-09: -5.24 °F2026-08-11: +0.86 °F2026-08-13: -2.76 °F2026-08-14: -3.17 °F2026-08-15: -2.1 °F2026-08-16: -0.83 °F2026-08-17: -0.55 °F2026-08-18: -2.04 °F2026-08-19: -5.75 °F2026-08-20: -5.5 °F2026-08-21: -3.25 °F2026-08-22: -6.46 °F2026-08-23: -2.98 °F2026-08-24: -5.85 °F2026-08-25: -5.03 °F2026-08-26: -4.75 °F2026-08-27: -6.13 °F2026-08-28: -6.28 °F2026-08-29: +0.01 °F2026-08-30: +0.87 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.87
2026-08-29+0.01
2026-08-28-6.28
2026-08-27-6.13
2026-08-26-4.75
2026-08-25-5.03
2026-08-24-5.85
2026-08-23-2.98
2026-08-22-6.46
2026-08-21-3.25
2026-08-20-5.50
2026-08-19-5.75
2026-08-18-2.04
2026-08-17-0.55
2026-08-16-0.83
2026-08-15-2.10
2026-08-14-3.17
2026-08-13-2.76
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11+0.86
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-5.24
2026-08-08-5.20
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-6.93

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -5 °F: 6 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4 · P90 |e| 6.26 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.004
-6.00-5.006
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.75 -3.59

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.83 [0.08, 1.65] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +0.32 [0.32, 0.32] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -1.22 [-1.22, -1.22] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +0.54 [-1.98, 2.02] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.65 [-1.72, 0.77] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -0.52 [-0.52, -0.52] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.07 [-0.37, 3.00] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence