Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Trenton Mercer · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 1

KTTN · aurora_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.54 [0.11, 0.98]0.44-0.54 [-0.98, -0.11]0.70 [0.11, 0.98]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.88+0.902026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.54 [0.11, 0.98]0.44-0.54 [-0.98, -0.11]0.70 [0.11, 0.98]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.88+0.902026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.54 [0.11, 0.98]0.44-0.54 [-0.98, -0.11]0.70 [0.11, 0.98]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.88+0.902026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.54 [0.11, 0.98]0.44-0.54 [-0.98, -0.11]0.70 [0.11, 0.98]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.88+0.902026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC0.38 [0.20, 0.56]0.38-0.18 [-0.56, 0.20]0.42 [0.20, 0.56]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.92+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC0.38 [0.20, 0.56]0.38-0.18 [-0.56, 0.20]0.42 [0.20, 0.56]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.92+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC0.38 [0.20, 0.56]0.38-0.18 [-0.56, 0.20]0.42 [0.20, 0.56]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.92+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC0.38 [0.20, 0.56]0.38-0.18 [-0.56, 0.20]0.42 [0.20, 0.56]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.92+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.65 [1.56, 1.74]0.09-1.65 [-1.74, -1.56]1.66 [1.56, 1.74]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63+0.982026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.65 [1.56, 1.74]0.09-1.65 [-1.74, -1.56]1.66 [1.56, 1.74]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63+0.982026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.65 [1.56, 1.74]0.09-1.65 [-1.74, -1.56]1.66 [1.56, 1.74]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63+0.982026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.65 [1.56, 1.74]0.09-1.65 [-1.74, -1.56]1.66 [1.56, 1.74]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63+0.982026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.27 [1.26, 1.29]0.02-1.27 [-1.29, -1.26]1.27 [1.26, 1.29]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72+1.002026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.27 [1.26, 1.29]0.02-1.27 [-1.29, -1.26]1.27 [1.26, 1.29]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72+1.002026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.27 [1.26, 1.29]0.02-1.27 [-1.29, -1.26]1.27 [1.26, 1.29]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72+1.002026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC1.27 [1.26, 1.29]0.02-1.27 [-1.29, -1.26]1.27 [1.26, 1.29]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72+1.002026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC4.56 [4.21, 4.91]0.35+4.56 [4.21, 4.91]4.58 [4.21, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.14+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC4.56 [4.21, 4.91]0.35+4.56 [4.21, 4.91]4.58 [4.21, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.14+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC4.56 [4.21, 4.91]0.35+4.56 [4.21, 4.91]4.58 [4.21, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.14+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC4.56 [4.21, 4.91]0.35+4.56 [4.21, 4.91]4.58 [4.21, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.14+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC4.82 [4.32, 5.33]0.50+4.82 [4.32, 5.33]4.85 [4.32, 5.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21+0.832026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC4.82 [4.32, 5.33]0.50+4.82 [4.32, 5.33]4.85 [4.32, 5.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21+0.832026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC4.82 [4.32, 5.33]0.50+4.82 [4.32, 5.33]4.85 [4.32, 5.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21+0.832026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC4.82 [4.32, 5.33]0.50+4.82 [4.32, 5.33]4.85 [4.32, 5.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21+0.832026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC3.52 [3.33, 3.72]0.20+3.52 [3.33, 3.72]3.53 [3.33, 3.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.12+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC3.52 [3.33, 3.72]0.20+3.52 [3.33, 3.72]3.53 [3.33, 3.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.12+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC3.52 [3.33, 3.72]0.20+3.52 [3.33, 3.72]3.53 [3.33, 3.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.12+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC3.52 [3.33, 3.72]0.20+3.52 [3.33, 3.72]3.53 [3.33, 3.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.12+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC3.73 [3.36, 4.10]0.37+3.73 [3.36, 4.10]3.75 [3.36, 4.10]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.07+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC3.73 [3.36, 4.10]0.37+3.73 [3.36, 4.10]3.75 [3.36, 4.10]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.07+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC3.73 [3.36, 4.10]0.37+3.73 [3.36, 4.10]3.75 [3.36, 4.10]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.07+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC3.73 [3.36, 4.10]0.37+3.73 [3.36, 4.10]3.75 [3.36, 4.10]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.07+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KTTN, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+1+0.50-0.5-12026-08-29: -0.11 °F2026-08-30: -0.98 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.98
2026-08-29-0.11

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KTTN, lead day 1-1 to -0.9 °F: 1 day-0.9 to -0.8 °F: 0 days-0.8 to -0.7 °F: 0 days-0.7 to -0.6 °F: 0 days-0.6 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to -0.4 °F: 0 days-0.4 to -0.3 °F: 0 days-0.3 to -0.2 °F: 0 days-0.2 to -0.1 °F: 1 day-0.1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.1 °F: 0 days0.1 to 0.2 °F: 0 days0.2 to 0.3 °F: 0 days0.3 to 0.4 °F: 0 days0.4 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 0.6 °F: 0 days0.6 to 0.7 °F: 0 days0.7 to 0.8 °F: 0 days0.8 to 0.9 °F: 0 days0.9 to 1 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 0.54 · P90 |e| 0.9 °F-10+1 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-1.00-0.901
-0.90-0.800
-0.80-0.700
-0.70-0.600
-0.60-0.500
-0.50-0.400
-0.40-0.300
-0.30-0.200
-0.20-0.101
-0.10+0.000
+0.00+0.100
+0.10+0.200
+0.20+0.300
+0.30+0.400
+0.40+0.500
+0.50+0.600
+0.60+0.700
+0.70+0.800
+0.80+0.900
+0.90+1.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0820.54 -0.54

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 -0.85 [-1.88, 0.18] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -1.45 [-1.45, -1.45] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.21 [-0.21, -0.21] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -2.11 [-3.22, -1.01] yes
NCEP GFS 2 -2.88 [-3.49, -2.26] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.46 [-2.46, -2.46] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -1.17 [-1.57, -0.76] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 -0.38 [-0.88, 0.12] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -1.48 [-1.48, -1.48] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -2.26 [-3.97, -0.56] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 -3.96 [-4.89, -3.02] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KTTN aurora_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KTTN/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KTTN (Trenton Mercer), model aurora_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KTTN/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence