Model
Aurora (IFS init)
aurora_ifs
source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.61−2.43 · n=25 | 2.28−1.94 · n=25 | 2.06−1.56 · n=25 | 2.18−1.20 · n=24 | 2.36−0.67 · n=24 | 2.37−0.38 · n=24 | 2.61+0.37 · n=24 | 3.52+1.33 · n=24 | 3.99+1.50 · n=23 | 5.03+1.98 · n=23 | |
| KAUS | 3.47+0.09 · n=25 | 3.67−0.10 · n=25 | 3.42−0.56 · n=25 | 3.76−0.47 · n=24 | 3.94−0.36 · n=24 | 3.75−0.58 · n=24 | 4.31+0.62 · n=24 | 5.05+1.10 · n=24 | 5.55+1.21 · n=23 | 5.93+1.63 · n=23 | |
| KBOS | 2.05−1.71 · n=24 | 2.08−1.57 · n=24 | 2.17−1.42 · n=24 | 2.29−1.20 · n=23 | 2.60−1.15 · n=23 | 3.03−0.53 · n=24 | 3.52+0.48 · n=24 | 4.40+0.80 · n=23 | 5.12+0.69 · n=22 | 6.43+1.90 · n=22 | |
| KDCA | 2.40−2.29 · n=25 | 1.98−1.57 · n=25 | 2.03−1.47 · n=25 | 2.16−1.49 · n=24 | 2.38−1.68 · n=24 | 3.11−1.50 · n=24 | 3.89−0.39 · n=24 | 3.73+0.14 · n=24 | 4.25+0.53 · n=23 | 5.70+1.40 · n=23 | |
| KDEN | 2.18−0.33 · n=25 | 2.17−0.63 · n=25 | 2.44−0.77 · n=25 | 2.84−1.30 · n=24 | 3.61−1.63 · n=24 | 4.84−1.92 · n=24 | 5.05−1.29 · n=24 | 5.43−1.70 · n=24 | 6.28−2.74 · n=23 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.17−1.92 · n=25 | 2.41−2.05 · n=25 | 2.55−2.22 · n=25 | 2.77−2.05 · n=24 | 3.21−2.10 · n=24 | 3.34−2.27 · n=24 | 3.92−1.67 · n=24 | 4.16−1.65 · n=24 | 4.37−0.73 · n=23 | 4.65−0.38 · n=23 | |
| KEWR | 2.16−1.44 · n=25 | 2.16−1.24 · n=25 | 2.09−0.95 · n=25 | 2.29−0.96 · n=24 | 2.62−0.96 · n=24 | 2.76−0.51 · n=24 | 3.99+0.39 · n=24 | 4.39+1.06 · n=24 | 4.74+1.01 · n=23 | 6.00+2.06 · n=23 | |
| KIAH | 2.20−1.09 · n=25 | 2.58−1.34 · n=25 | 2.65−1.57 · n=25 | 3.00−1.78 · n=24 | 3.04−1.34 · n=24 | 3.26−1.36 · n=24 | 3.49−0.83 · n=24 | 3.95+0.06 · n=24 | 4.38+0.02 · n=23 | 4.50+0.15 · n=23 | |
| KLAS | 2.51−2.36 · n=25 | 2.45−2.12 · n=25 | 2.46−2.19 · n=25 | 2.42−2.01 · n=24 | 2.57−1.69 · n=24 | 2.74−1.34 · n=24 | 3.40−1.15 · n=24 | 3.76−0.37 · n=24 | 3.79+0.04 · n=23 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.42−1.70 · n=25 | 2.86−2.37 · n=25 | 3.35−2.97 · n=25 | 3.92−3.53 · n=24 | 4.02−3.79 · n=24 | 4.17−3.78 · n=24 | 4.52−3.65 · n=24 | 4.73−3.36 · n=24 | 5.03−3.27 · n=23 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.64−1.21 · n=25 | 1.86−1.39 · n=25 | 2.01−1.54 · n=25 | 2.19−1.36 · n=24 | 2.27−1.34 · n=24 | 2.16−1.33 · n=24 | 2.28−1.25 · n=24 | 2.37−1.00 · n=24 | 2.54−0.90 · n=23 | 2.53−0.94 · n=23 | |
| KMSP | 2.32−1.63 · n=25 | 2.16−1.36 · n=25 | 2.41−1.30 · n=25 | 2.91−1.37 · n=24 | 3.16−1.47 · n=24 | 3.77−1.92 · n=24 | 4.70−2.11 · n=24 | 5.84−1.48 · n=24 | 6.22−2.44 · n=23 | 6.60−3.54 · n=23 | |
| KMSY | 2.14−0.66 · n=25 | 2.36−0.60 · n=25 | 2.51−0.63 · n=25 | 2.43−0.73 · n=24 | 2.51−0.54 · n=24 | 2.88−0.08 · n=24 | 3.15+0.61 · n=24 | 3.81+1.41 · n=24 | 4.21+1.72 · n=23 | 4.54+2.18 · n=23 | |
| KNYC | 1.81−0.66 · n=24 | 1.70−0.42 · n=24 | 1.71−0.04 · n=24 | 1.88+0.18 · n=23 | 2.20+0.11 · n=23 | 2.21+0.45 · n=23 | 3.51+1.43 · n=23 | 3.99+2.11 · n=23 | 4.53+2.02 · n=22 | 6.22+3.14 · n=22 | |
| KOKC | 2.66+1.26 · n=25 | 3.12+1.03 · n=25 | 3.13+0.46 · n=25 | 2.94+0.46 · n=24 | 3.30+0.60 · n=24 | 3.65+0.64 · n=24 | 4.49+0.28 · n=24 | 4.49+0.23 · n=24 | 5.27+1.85 · n=23 | 5.25+2.18 · n=23 | |
| KORD | 1.56−0.96 · n=25 | 1.72−0.88 · n=25 | 2.07−0.92 · n=25 | 2.50−1.21 · n=24 | 2.64−1.22 · n=24 | 3.09−0.36 · n=24 | 3.87−0.45 · n=24 | 4.65−0.21 · n=24 | 5.23+0.57 · n=23 | 5.12−0.21 · n=23 | |
| KPHL | 2.73−2.46 · n=25 | 2.51−1.89 · n=25 | 2.46−1.74 · n=25 | 2.44−1.78 · n=24 | 2.64−1.61 · n=24 | 2.86−1.44 · n=24 | 3.86−0.37 · n=24 | 4.12+0.31 · n=24 | 4.44+0.33 · n=23 | 5.73+1.39 · n=23 | |
| KPHX | 3.16−2.72 · n=25 | 3.06−2.43 · n=25 | 2.91−2.07 · n=25 | 2.98−2.17 · n=24 | 2.98−1.81 · n=24 | 3.22−1.24 · n=24 | 3.75−0.15 · n=24 | 4.43+0.94 · n=24 | 4.12+1.44 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.59−1.78 · n=25 | 2.97−2.31 · n=25 | 3.53−3.01 · n=25 | 3.89−3.39 · n=24 | 4.01−3.55 · n=24 | 4.28−3.61 · n=24 | 4.49−3.60 · n=24 | 4.82−3.73 · n=24 | 5.01−3.73 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAT | 2.11−0.79 · n=25 | 2.56−1.29 · n=25 | 2.62−1.84 · n=25 | 2.75−1.79 · n=24 | 3.05−1.54 · n=24 | 3.10−1.87 · n=24 | 3.48−1.05 · n=24 | 4.05−0.43 · n=24 | 4.29−0.09 · n=23 | 4.59+0.21 · n=23 | |
| KSEA | 1.99−1.24 · n=25 | 2.19−1.34 · n=25 | 2.11−1.01 · n=25 | 2.17−0.84 · n=24 | 2.45−1.18 · n=24 | 2.84−0.87 · n=24 | 3.21−0.74 · n=24 | 3.65−0.59 · n=24 | 3.94+0.22 · n=23 | — | |
| KSFO | 2.44−0.90 · n=25 | 2.80−1.20 · n=25 | 2.98−1.71 · n=25 | 3.14−2.15 · n=24 | 3.12−2.13 · n=24 | 3.32−2.30 · n=24 | 3.57−1.98 · n=24 | 3.50−1.31 · n=24 | 3.97−1.16 · n=23 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.63+0.63 · n=25 | 1.98+1.11 · n=25 | 2.18+1.25 · n=25 | 2.40+1.26 · n=24 | 2.62+1.37 · n=24 | 3.00+1.77 · n=24 | 4.53+2.85 · n=24 | 4.89+3.39 · n=24 | 5.22+3.20 · n=23 | 7.03+4.41 · n=23 |
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.12−0.89 · n=25 | 1.18−0.60 · n=25 | 1.34−0.45 · n=25 | 1.99−0.36 · n=24 | 2.53+0.06 · n=24 | 2.75+0.30 · n=24 | 3.14+0.57 · n=24 | 3.96+0.90 · n=24 | 4.96+1.04 · n=23 | 5.35+1.52 · n=23 | |
| KAUS | 1.75−1.48 · n=25 | 2.41−1.95 · n=25 | 2.75−2.20 · n=25 | 3.06−2.15 · n=24 | 3.48−2.12 · n=24 | 3.63−2.47 · n=24 | 4.03−1.22 · n=24 | 4.06−1.40 · n=24 | 4.17−1.33 · n=23 | 4.28−1.05 · n=23 | |
| KBOS | 1.47−0.69 · n=24 | 1.48−0.76 · n=24 | 1.54−0.67 · n=24 | 1.97−0.10 · n=23 | 3.13−0.82 · n=23 | 4.01−0.28 · n=24 | 4.11+1.14 · n=24 | 5.05+0.61 · n=23 | 5.95+0.19 · n=22 | 7.53+1.37 · n=22 | |
| KDCA | 1.91−1.54 · n=25 | 1.78−1.12 · n=25 | 1.96−1.28 · n=25 | 2.09−1.65 · n=24 | 2.37−1.31 · n=24 | 3.47−0.99 · n=24 | 4.22+0.04 · n=24 | 3.99−0.16 · n=24 | 5.30−0.22 · n=23 | 6.57+0.98 · n=23 | |
| KDEN | 1.71−0.12 · n=25 | 1.83−0.80 · n=25 | 2.00−0.63 · n=25 | 2.37−1.27 · n=24 | 3.45−1.88 · n=24 | 5.05−2.12 · n=24 | 5.16−1.44 · n=24 | 5.54−1.76 · n=24 | 6.53−2.66 · n=23 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.47−1.39 · n=25 | 2.15−2.01 · n=25 | 2.32−2.16 · n=25 | 2.46−2.07 · n=24 | 3.33−1.70 · n=24 | 3.53−2.26 · n=24 | 4.31−2.00 · n=24 | 4.32−2.42 · n=24 | 4.01−1.18 · n=23 | 4.33−0.80 · n=23 | |
| KEWR | 2.22−2.05 · n=25 | 2.50−1.99 · n=25 | 2.41−1.80 · n=25 | 2.70−1.83 · n=24 | 2.81−2.01 · n=24 | 3.07−1.70 · n=24 | 4.04−0.35 · n=24 | 5.00−0.26 · n=24 | 4.98−0.67 · n=23 | 6.22+0.64 · n=23 | |
| KIAH | 2.91−2.15 · n=25 | 3.68−2.80 · n=25 | 3.70−3.02 · n=25 | 3.92−2.86 · n=24 | 4.19−2.57 · n=24 | 4.30−3.61 · n=24 | 4.52−2.43 · n=24 | 4.55−2.12 · n=24 | 4.79−2.85 · n=23 | 5.09−2.55 · n=23 | |
| KLAS | 2.86−2.78 · n=25 | 2.55−2.50 · n=25 | 2.68−2.59 · n=25 | 2.69−2.14 · n=24 | 2.80−1.85 · n=24 | 3.32−1.32 · n=24 | 4.26−1.20 · n=24 | 4.75−0.25 · n=24 | 4.78+0.42 · n=23 | — | |
| KLAX | 3.04−2.47 · n=25 | 3.64−3.35 · n=25 | 4.34−4.23 · n=25 | 4.93−4.91 · n=24 | 4.96−4.93 · n=24 | 4.95−4.90 · n=24 | 5.47−4.98 · n=24 | 5.75−4.53 · n=24 | 6.26−4.57 · n=23 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.48−1.18 · n=25 | 1.94−1.48 · n=25 | 2.26−1.33 · n=25 | 2.38−1.17 · n=24 | 2.57−1.16 · n=24 | 2.16−1.28 · n=24 | 2.34−1.32 · n=24 | 2.87−0.74 · n=24 | 2.87−0.56 · n=23 | 2.65−0.65 · n=23 | |
| KMSP | 1.79−1.16 · n=25 | 1.82−1.15 · n=25 | 2.01−1.38 · n=25 | 2.50−1.62 · n=24 | 3.11−1.60 · n=24 | 3.57−1.93 · n=24 | 4.88−1.97 · n=24 | 6.52−1.33 · n=24 | 6.40−2.58 · n=23 | 7.14−3.88 · n=23 | |
| KMSY | 2.61−2.42 · n=25 | 2.62−2.42 · n=25 | 2.63−2.46 · n=25 | 2.94−2.86 · n=24 | 3.03−2.72 · n=24 | 3.01−2.24 · n=24 | 2.76−1.57 · n=24 | 3.34−0.96 · n=24 | 3.63−1.29 · n=23 | 3.38−1.03 · n=23 | |
| KNYC | 1.73+1.57 · n=24 | 1.59+1.45 · n=24 | 1.59+1.38 · n=24 | 1.79+1.40 · n=23 | 2.19+1.28 · n=23 | 2.04+1.18 · n=23 | 3.74+2.36 · n=23 | 4.37+2.61 · n=23 | 4.80+2.09 · n=22 | 6.76+3.23 · n=22 | |
| KOKC | 1.63−0.28 · n=25 | 2.16−0.74 · n=25 | 2.71−1.57 · n=25 | 2.55−1.63 · n=24 | 3.22−1.57 · n=24 | 4.11−1.54 · n=24 | 5.06−2.69 · n=24 | 4.29−2.11 · n=24 | 4.40+0.06 · n=23 | 4.80−0.09 · n=23 | |
| KORD | 0.87−0.30 · n=25 | 1.40−0.70 · n=25 | 1.63−0.89 · n=25 | 2.08−1.37 · n=24 | 2.52−0.94 · n=24 | 2.75−0.25 · n=24 | 3.51−0.70 · n=24 | 4.19−0.72 · n=24 | 4.35+0.16 · n=23 | 4.29−1.25 · n=23 | |
| KPHL | 1.84−0.99 · n=25 | 2.17−0.75 · n=25 | 2.15−1.12 · n=25 | 1.84−1.30 · n=24 | 2.20−1.07 · n=24 | 2.80−1.02 · n=24 | 3.56+0.60 · n=24 | 3.92+0.56 · n=24 | 4.50+0.24 · n=23 | 6.12+1.15 · n=23 | |
| KPHX | 2.72−2.48 · n=25 | 2.73−2.34 · n=25 | 2.37−1.70 · n=25 | 2.51−1.73 · n=24 | 2.27−1.16 · n=24 | 2.44−0.59 · n=24 | 2.97+0.87 · n=24 | 3.94+2.16 · n=24 | 3.90+2.75 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAN | 3.90−3.90 · n=25 | 4.75−4.75 · n=25 | 5.57−5.57 · n=25 | 5.98−5.98 · n=24 | 6.23−6.11 · n=24 | 6.41−6.22 · n=24 | 6.67−6.32 · n=24 | 6.82−6.32 · n=24 | 6.99−6.52 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.26−0.93 · n=25 | 1.94−1.79 · n=25 | 2.60−2.38 · n=25 | 2.63−2.38 · n=24 | 3.03−2.01 · n=24 | 3.29−2.24 · n=24 | 3.32−1.53 · n=24 | 3.72−1.32 · n=24 | 3.50−1.31 · n=23 | 3.62−1.06 · n=23 | |
| KSEA | 1.88−1.72 · n=25 | 2.06−1.83 · n=25 | 2.29−1.85 · n=25 | 2.35−1.81 · n=24 | 2.71−1.95 · n=24 | 3.01−1.65 · n=24 | 3.41−1.91 · n=24 | 4.43−1.21 · n=24 | 4.32−0.13 · n=23 | — | |
| KSFO | 3.57−3.03 · n=25 | 4.01−3.39 · n=25 | 4.64−4.12 · n=25 | 5.18−4.62 · n=24 | 5.30−4.48 · n=24 | 5.47−4.79 · n=24 | 5.73−4.33 · n=24 | 5.20−3.20 · n=24 | 6.05−3.31 · n=23 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.08+0.44 · n=25 | 1.46+0.63 · n=25 | 1.44+0.57 · n=25 | 1.69+0.47 · n=24 | 2.04+0.58 · n=24 | 1.97+0.87 · n=24 | 4.01+2.44 · n=24 | 4.73+2.65 · n=24 | 4.89+2.13 · n=23 | 7.20+3.09 · n=23 |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.29−2.19 · n=25 | 2.00−1.74 · n=25 | 1.83−1.40 · n=25 | 1.75−0.83 · n=24 | 1.82−0.31 · n=24 | 1.71−0.01 · n=24 | 2.01+1.28 · n=24 | 3.39+2.86 · n=24 | 3.67+3.02 · n=23 | 4.97+3.60 · n=23 | |
| KAUS | 4.02+3.26 · n=25 | 4.18+3.14 · n=25 | 3.60+2.44 · n=25 | 3.90+2.82 · n=24 | 3.66+2.59 · n=24 | 4.02+2.91 · n=24 | 4.58+3.98 · n=24 | 5.94+5.08 · n=24 | 6.72+5.52 · n=23 | 7.62+6.00 · n=23 | |
| KBOS | 1.75−1.54 · n=24 | 1.94−1.55 · n=24 | 1.91−1.05 · n=24 | 1.87−0.99 · n=23 | 1.50−0.22 · n=23 | 2.16+0.51 · n=24 | 3.19+1.69 · n=24 | 4.03+2.48 · n=23 | 4.50+2.63 · n=22 | 6.11+3.93 · n=22 | |
| KDCA | 1.62−1.55 · n=25 | 1.42−1.01 · n=25 | 1.25−0.83 · n=25 | 1.44−0.65 · n=24 | 1.76−0.92 · n=24 | 2.53−0.67 · n=24 | 3.54+0.59 · n=24 | 3.35+1.53 · n=24 | 3.85+2.03 · n=23 | 5.09+2.93 · n=23 | |
| KDEN | 2.63−0.90 · n=25 | 2.28−0.90 · n=25 | 2.32−0.85 · n=25 | 2.40−0.93 · n=24 | 2.79−1.32 · n=24 | 3.91−1.68 · n=24 | 4.22−1.11 · n=24 | 3.97−1.65 · n=24 | 5.30−2.74 · n=23 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.47−1.07 · n=25 | 1.48−0.77 · n=25 | 1.72−1.29 · n=25 | 2.02−1.32 · n=24 | 2.07−1.26 · n=24 | 2.39−1.25 · n=24 | 2.79−0.32 · n=24 | 3.45+0.15 · n=24 | 4.49+1.08 · n=23 | 4.50+1.46 · n=23 | |
| KEWR | 1.19+0.56 · n=25 | 1.30+0.54 · n=25 | 1.49+0.72 · n=25 | 1.70+0.72 · n=24 | 2.17+1.00 · n=24 | 2.55+1.91 · n=24 | 3.98+2.70 · n=24 | 4.17+3.62 · n=24 | 4.80+3.72 · n=23 | 6.41+4.59 · n=23 | |
| KIAH | 1.24+0.45 · n=25 | 1.64+0.24 · n=25 | 1.86−0.05 · n=25 | 2.31−0.39 · n=24 | 2.30+0.21 · n=24 | 2.96+1.01 · n=24 | 2.91+1.08 · n=24 | 4.19+2.61 · n=24 | 5.01+3.26 · n=23 | 4.79+3.21 · n=23 | |
| KLAS | 2.30−2.09 · n=25 | 2.19−1.86 · n=25 | 2.27−2.04 · n=25 | 2.19−1.77 · n=24 | 2.16−1.64 · n=24 | 1.84−1.26 · n=24 | 2.43−1.09 · n=24 | 2.02−0.14 · n=24 | 2.50−0.04 · n=23 | — | |
| KLAX | 1.72−1.37 · n=25 | 1.92−1.61 · n=25 | 2.24−2.09 · n=25 | 2.81−2.58 · n=24 | 2.96−2.72 · n=24 | 3.30−2.91 · n=24 | 3.31−2.69 · n=24 | 3.37−2.62 · n=24 | 3.53−2.41 · n=23 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.20−0.79 · n=25 | 1.56−0.74 · n=25 | 1.40−1.02 · n=25 | 1.64−0.93 · n=24 | 1.73−0.83 · n=24 | 1.72−0.74 · n=24 | 1.90−0.56 · n=24 | 1.82−0.55 · n=24 | 2.27−0.46 · n=23 | 2.37−0.55 · n=23 | |
| KMSP | 1.62−0.91 · n=25 | 1.31−0.40 · n=25 | 1.76−0.27 · n=25 | 2.31−0.48 · n=24 | 2.47−0.31 · n=24 | 2.92−0.97 · n=24 | 3.76−1.32 · n=24 | 4.71−0.32 · n=24 | 5.39−1.34 · n=23 | 5.19−1.97 · n=23 | |
| KMSY | 2.09+0.93 · n=25 | 2.41+1.05 · n=25 | 2.65+1.16 · n=25 | 2.38+1.17 · n=24 | 2.59+1.31 · n=24 | 3.41+1.89 · n=24 | 3.78+2.78 · n=24 | 4.91+3.94 · n=24 | 5.41+4.53 · n=23 | 6.01+5.12 · n=23 | |
| KNYC | 1.50−0.70 · n=24 | 1.18−0.33 · n=24 | 1.44+0.18 · n=24 | 1.86+0.39 · n=23 | 2.14+0.39 · n=23 | 2.52+1.27 · n=23 | 4.01+2.32 · n=23 | 4.31+3.34 · n=23 | 4.83+3.52 · n=22 | 6.95+4.59 · n=22 | |
| KOKC | 3.14+2.47 · n=25 | 3.33+2.25 · n=25 | 3.41+1.84 · n=25 | 3.48+2.14 · n=24 | 3.59+2.31 · n=24 | 3.72+2.38 · n=24 | 4.38+2.54 · n=24 | 5.19+2.08 · n=24 | 5.83+3.59 · n=23 | 5.79+4.36 · n=23 | |
| KORD | 1.09−0.53 · n=25 | 1.21+0.18 · n=25 | 1.63+0.26 · n=25 | 2.04−0.16 · n=24 | 2.36−0.18 · n=24 | 2.63+0.92 · n=24 | 3.34+1.09 · n=24 | 4.29+1.38 · n=24 | 5.47+2.14 · n=23 | 5.16+2.45 · n=23 | |
| KPHL | 2.29−2.14 · n=25 | 1.89−1.42 · n=25 | 1.69−1.15 · n=25 | 1.98−1.31 · n=24 | 1.97−0.83 · n=24 | 2.33−0.53 · n=24 | 3.87+0.50 · n=24 | 4.00+1.69 · n=24 | 4.22+1.79 · n=23 | 5.68+3.06 · n=23 | |
| KPHX | 3.91−3.73 · n=25 | 3.59−3.35 · n=25 | 3.27−3.23 · n=25 | 3.27−3.20 · n=24 | 3.66−3.09 · n=24 | 3.29−2.49 · n=24 | 3.69−2.23 · n=24 | 4.03−1.38 · n=24 | 3.72−0.98 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAN | 1.76+0.71 · n=25 | 1.70+0.60 · n=25 | 1.77−0.02 · n=25 | 1.98−0.41 · n=24 | 1.87−0.64 · n=24 | 2.40−0.53 · n=24 | 2.70−0.30 · n=24 | 3.24−0.53 · n=24 | 3.12−0.36 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAT | 2.02+1.07 · n=25 | 2.21+0.72 · n=25 | 1.86−0.05 · n=25 | 2.11+0.03 · n=24 | 1.70+0.12 · n=24 | 2.12−0.04 · n=24 | 2.48+0.77 · n=24 | 3.71+2.04 · n=24 | 4.45+2.80 · n=23 | 4.92+3.10 · n=23 | |
| KSEA | 1.64−1.35 · n=25 | 1.57−1.27 · n=25 | 1.39−0.91 · n=25 | 1.39−0.51 · n=24 | 1.37−0.53 · n=24 | 2.31−0.40 · n=24 | 2.96−0.15 · n=24 | 2.60−0.35 · n=24 | 3.41+0.36 · n=23 | — | |
| KSFO | 1.92+0.78 · n=25 | 2.02+0.54 · n=25 | 1.92+0.05 · n=25 | 2.01−0.34 · n=24 | 1.90−0.53 · n=24 | 1.70−0.40 · n=24 | 2.26−0.11 · n=24 | 2.54−0.02 · n=24 | 2.42+0.23 · n=23 | — | |
| KTTN | 2.07+1.96 · n=25 | 2.69+2.44 · n=25 | 2.90+2.51 · n=25 | 3.15+2.58 · n=24 | 3.27+2.90 · n=24 | 3.63+3.41 · n=24 | 5.33+4.44 · n=24 | 5.83+5.60 · n=24 | 5.94+5.37 · n=23 | 7.81+6.76 · n=23 |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 3.61−3.61 · n=25 | 3.32−3.32 · n=25 | 3.01−3.01 · n=25 | 3.66−2.98 · n=24 | 3.58−2.44 · n=24 | 3.98−2.45 · n=24 | 4.23−2.22 · n=24 | 4.78−1.69 · n=24 | 5.03−1.56 · n=23 | 5.88−1.18 · n=23 | |
| KAUS | 5.76−5.76 · n=25 | 6.19−6.19 · n=25 | 6.63−6.52 · n=25 | 6.64−6.53 · n=24 | 6.93−6.45 · n=24 | 7.75−6.89 · n=24 | 7.31−5.76 · n=24 | 7.36−5.86 · n=24 | 7.30−5.85 · n=23 | 7.28−5.49 · n=23 | |
| KBOS | 2.55−2.28 · n=25 | 2.56−2.27 · n=25 | 2.55−2.16 · n=25 | 2.63−1.85 · n=24 | 4.18−2.76 · n=24 | 4.54−1.80 · n=24 | 4.38−0.43 · n=24 | 5.13−1.02 · n=24 | 5.75−1.41 · n=23 | 7.08−0.34 · n=23 | |
| KDCA | 3.35−3.34 · n=25 | 2.92−2.92 · n=25 | 3.08−3.08 · n=25 | 3.50−3.32 · n=24 | 3.56−3.31 · n=24 | 4.58−2.82 · n=24 | 5.39−1.79 · n=24 | 4.85−1.99 · n=24 | 6.11−2.13 · n=23 | 6.83−0.93 · n=23 | |
| KDEN | 5.16−5.16 · n=25 | 5.96−5.96 · n=25 | 5.93−5.88 · n=25 | 6.40−6.40 · n=24 | 7.63−7.09 · n=24 | 8.64−7.20 · n=24 | 7.88−6.28 · n=24 | 8.75−6.85 · n=24 | 10.12−7.75 · n=23 | — | |
| KDFW | 4.83−4.83 · n=25 | 5.41−5.41 · n=25 | 5.64−5.64 · n=25 | 5.47−5.44 · n=24 | 6.24−5.28 · n=24 | 6.69−5.93 · n=24 | 6.92−5.29 · n=24 | 6.63−5.84 · n=24 | 6.32−4.66 · n=23 | 6.41−4.28 · n=23 | |
| KEWR | 3.62−3.62 · n=25 | 3.66−3.65 · n=25 | 3.66−3.66 · n=25 | 3.91−3.64 · n=24 | 4.20−3.77 · n=24 | 4.27−3.39 · n=24 | 5.14−2.20 · n=24 | 5.39−1.94 · n=24 | 5.50−2.42 · n=23 | 6.10−1.12 · n=23 | |
| KIAH | 5.85−5.75 · n=25 | 6.58−6.28 · n=25 | 6.83−6.50 · n=25 | 6.85−6.53 · n=24 | 6.95−6.28 · n=24 | 7.48−7.15 · n=24 | 6.83−5.80 · n=24 | 6.77−5.74 · n=24 | 7.33−6.46 · n=23 | 7.35−6.16 · n=23 | |
| KLAS | 4.49−4.49 · n=25 | 4.17−4.17 · n=25 | 4.26−4.26 · n=25 | 3.94−3.88 · n=24 | 4.03−3.59 · n=24 | 3.84−2.90 · n=24 | 4.96−2.73 · n=24 | 5.24−1.91 · n=24 | 4.99−1.26 · n=23 | — | |
| KLAX | 5.37−5.28 · n=25 | 6.03−6.03 · n=25 | 7.04−7.04 · n=25 | 7.33−7.33 · n=24 | 7.52−7.52 · n=24 | 7.74−7.74 · n=24 | 7.70−7.61 · n=24 | 8.00−7.24 · n=24 | 8.41−7.45 · n=23 | — | |
| KMIA | 2.90−2.90 · n=25 | 3.00−3.00 · n=25 | 3.38−3.38 · n=25 | 3.32−3.26 · n=24 | 3.42−3.16 · n=24 | 3.28−3.28 · n=24 | 3.05−2.95 · n=24 | 3.16−2.91 · n=24 | 3.06−2.43 · n=23 | 3.03−2.39 · n=23 | |
| KMSP | 4.56−4.41 · n=25 | 4.51−4.51 · n=25 | 4.75−4.66 · n=25 | 4.89−4.83 · n=24 | 5.49−5.02 · n=24 | 5.86−5.18 · n=24 | 7.07−5.23 · n=24 | 8.38−4.50 · n=24 | 8.33−6.02 · n=23 | 8.93−7.58 · n=23 | |
| KMSY | 4.62−4.62 · n=25 | 4.78−4.78 · n=25 | 4.74−4.74 · n=25 | 5.03−5.03 · n=24 | 5.05−5.05 · n=24 | 4.54−4.41 · n=24 | 4.11−3.91 · n=24 | 4.24−3.50 · n=24 | 4.23−3.55 · n=23 | 4.38−3.34 · n=23 | |
| KNYC | 0.83−0.51 · n=25 | 1.05−0.80 · n=25 | 1.28−0.87 · n=25 | 1.80−0.87 · n=24 | 2.28−1.02 · n=24 | 2.49−0.66 · n=24 | 3.86+0.53 · n=24 | 4.25+0.58 · n=24 | 4.55+0.20 · n=23 | 6.04+1.24 · n=23 | |
| KOKC | 3.55−3.44 · n=25 | 4.03−3.86 · n=25 | 4.94−4.73 · n=25 | 4.97−4.75 · n=24 | 5.27−4.91 · n=24 | 6.29−4.75 · n=24 | 7.23−5.86 · n=24 | 6.45−5.24 · n=24 | 5.62−3.16 · n=23 | 5.89−3.27 · n=23 | |
| KORD | 2.53−2.49 · n=25 | 3.01−2.85 · n=25 | 3.26−3.09 · n=25 | 3.93−3.66 · n=24 | 4.13−3.35 · n=24 | 3.80−2.79 · n=24 | 4.55−3.06 · n=24 | 5.11−2.84 · n=24 | 4.79−1.96 · n=23 | 5.21−3.72 · n=23 | |
| KPHL | 3.21−2.88 · n=25 | 2.98−2.71 · n=25 | 3.04−2.84 · n=25 | 3.30−3.30 · n=24 | 3.33−2.99 · n=24 | 3.94−2.60 · n=24 | 4.47−1.44 · n=24 | 4.42−1.32 · n=24 | 5.26−1.72 · n=23 | 6.26−0.76 · n=23 | |
| KPHX | 5.12−5.12 · n=25 | 4.94−4.94 · n=25 | 4.46−4.46 · n=25 | 4.53−4.53 · n=24 | 3.90−3.79 · n=24 | 3.35−3.05 · n=24 | 3.34−1.64 · n=24 | 4.10−0.67 · n=24 | 3.42−0.04 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAN | 6.38−6.38 · n=25 | 7.19−7.19 · n=25 | 8.01−8.01 · n=25 | 8.27−8.27 · n=24 | 8.49−8.49 · n=24 | 8.73−8.73 · n=24 | 8.61−8.61 · n=24 | 8.69−8.65 · n=24 | 9.00−9.00 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAT | 4.55−4.55 · n=25 | 5.33−5.33 · n=25 | 5.88−5.88 · n=25 | 5.65−5.65 · n=24 | 5.95−5.61 · n=24 | 6.42−6.01 · n=24 | 6.11−5.00 · n=24 | 6.14−4.97 · n=24 | 6.01−4.85 · n=23 | 5.90−4.64 · n=23 | |
| KSEA | 3.19−3.14 · n=25 | 3.36−3.26 · n=25 | 3.52−3.28 · n=25 | 3.50−3.26 · n=24 | 3.72−3.52 · n=24 | 3.96−3.05 · n=24 | 4.06−3.14 · n=24 | 4.72−2.73 · n=24 | 4.72−1.81 · n=23 | — | |
| KSFO | 6.65−6.65 · n=25 | 7.09−7.09 · n=25 | 7.90−7.90 · n=25 | 8.44−8.44 · n=24 | 8.38−8.38 · n=24 | 8.77−8.77 · n=24 | 8.18−8.18 · n=24 | 7.11−7.09 · n=24 | 7.63−6.68 · n=23 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.57−1.32 · n=25 | 1.77−1.25 · n=25 | 1.65−1.40 · n=25 | 2.25−1.28 · n=24 | 2.70−1.38 · n=24 | 2.94−0.88 · n=24 | 4.26+0.56 · n=24 | 4.58+0.65 · n=24 | 4.95+0.22 · n=23 | 6.68+1.13 · n=23 |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.67−0.81 · n=25 | 1.64−0.08 · n=25 | 1.55+0.26 · n=25 | 1.50+0.57 · n=24 | 1.77+1.09 · n=24 | 1.74+1.31 · n=24 | 3.02+2.93 · n=24 | 4.63+4.55 · n=24 | 4.87+4.78 · n=23 | 5.43+5.19 · n=23 | |
| KAUS | 5.20+4.81 · n=25 | 5.34+5.01 · n=25 | 4.69+4.31 · n=25 | 5.11+4.65 · n=24 | 4.71+4.41 · n=24 | 4.81+4.49 · n=24 | 6.06+5.76 · n=24 | 7.31+6.70 · n=24 | 8.39+7.38 · n=23 | 8.95+7.69 · n=23 | |
| KBOS | 1.06+0.43 · n=25 | 1.19+0.63 · n=25 | 1.74+1.11 · n=25 | 1.94+1.27 · n=24 | 2.32+1.92 · n=24 | 3.22+2.63 · n=24 | 4.31+3.56 · n=24 | 5.32+4.54 · n=24 | 5.86+4.50 · n=23 | 7.33+6.01 · n=23 | |
| KDCA | 1.05+0.04 · n=25 | 1.28+0.58 · n=25 | 1.47+0.84 · n=25 | 1.77+0.92 · n=24 | 1.77+0.70 · n=24 | 2.42+1.07 · n=24 | 3.49+2.08 · n=24 | 3.98+3.23 · n=24 | 4.72+3.72 · n=23 | 6.11+4.62 · n=23 | |
| KDEN | 2.54+0.80 · n=25 | 2.58+0.91 · n=25 | 2.65+1.29 · n=25 | 2.66+1.26 · n=24 | 2.69+0.73 · n=24 | 3.09+0.46 · n=24 | 3.84+0.66 · n=24 | 3.92+0.20 · n=24 | 4.56−0.73 · n=23 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.50+0.70 · n=25 | 1.92+1.11 · n=25 | 1.97+0.56 · n=25 | 2.23+0.68 · n=24 | 2.18+0.42 · n=24 | 2.63+0.38 · n=24 | 3.47+1.57 · n=24 | 4.69+2.12 · n=24 | 4.71+3.13 · n=23 | 5.39+3.60 · n=23 | |
| KEWR | 2.94+2.83 · n=25 | 3.04+2.89 · n=25 | 3.26+3.15 · n=25 | 3.55+3.22 · n=24 | 3.87+3.49 · n=24 | 4.74+4.53 · n=24 | 5.90+5.07 · n=24 | 6.18+6.07 · n=24 | 6.67+6.14 · n=23 | 8.21+6.93 · n=23 | |
| KIAH | 2.40+2.11 · n=25 | 2.83+2.33 · n=25 | 2.89+2.12 · n=25 | 2.97+1.50 · n=24 | 3.42+2.23 · n=24 | 3.92+2.57 · n=24 | 4.23+3.22 · n=24 | 5.63+4.87 · n=24 | 6.22+5.41 · n=23 | 6.41+5.32 · n=23 | |
| KLAS | 1.83−0.41 · n=25 | 1.80−0.27 · n=25 | 1.66−0.28 · n=25 | 1.80−0.10 · n=24 | 1.74−0.10 · n=24 | 1.57+0.37 · n=24 | 2.24+0.57 · n=24 | 2.45+1.27 · n=24 | 2.78+1.48 · n=23 | — | |
| KLAX | 1.04+0.29 · n=25 | 1.23+0.25 · n=25 | 1.06−0.30 · n=25 | 1.48−0.82 · n=24 | 1.68−1.03 · n=24 | 2.11−1.06 · n=24 | 2.43−0.88 · n=24 | 2.81−0.88 · n=24 | 3.20−0.74 · n=23 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.08+0.49 · n=25 | 1.70+1.14 · n=25 | 1.32+0.62 · n=25 | 1.59+0.70 · n=24 | 1.90+1.00 · n=24 | 1.70+0.76 · n=24 | 2.06+1.27 · n=24 | 2.14+1.20 · n=24 | 2.17+1.11 · n=23 | 2.39+1.45 · n=23 | |
| KMSP | 2.07+1.25 · n=25 | 2.06+1.52 · n=25 | 2.28+1.85 · n=25 | 2.74+2.02 · n=24 | 3.12+2.19 · n=24 | 2.71+0.95 · n=24 | 4.36+1.10 · n=24 | 4.64+1.89 · n=24 | 5.47+1.01 · n=23 | 4.61+0.60 · n=23 | |
| KMSY | 3.28+2.85 · n=25 | 3.71+3.09 · n=25 | 3.62+3.16 · n=25 | 3.50+2.96 · n=24 | 3.85+3.05 · n=24 | 4.49+3.64 · n=24 | 5.41+4.86 · n=24 | 6.63+6.19 · n=24 | 7.21+6.96 · n=23 | 7.58+7.03 · n=23 | |
| KNYC | 1.58+0.57 · n=25 | 1.63+1.04 · n=25 | 2.06+1.62 · n=25 | 2.44+1.77 · n=24 | 2.50+1.93 · n=24 | 3.37+2.83 · n=24 | 4.38+3.52 · n=24 | 4.89+4.66 · n=24 | 5.76+5.09 · n=23 | 7.61+6.05 · n=23 | |
| KOKC | 4.16+3.97 · n=25 | 4.11+3.75 · n=25 | 4.00+3.34 · n=25 | 4.18+3.66 · n=24 | 4.37+3.75 · n=24 | 4.54+3.98 · n=24 | 5.01+4.02 · n=24 | 5.75+3.64 · n=24 | 6.22+5.08 · n=23 | 6.51+5.64 · n=23 | |
| KORD | 1.47+0.83 · n=25 | 1.96+1.70 · n=25 | 2.28+1.62 · n=25 | 2.53+1.42 · n=24 | 2.64+1.19 · n=24 | 3.09+2.21 · n=24 | 3.74+2.64 · n=24 | 4.83+2.92 · n=24 | 6.11+3.88 · n=23 | 5.52+3.86 · n=23 | |
| KPHL | 1.40−0.16 · n=25 | 1.43+0.60 · n=25 | 1.71+0.91 · n=25 | 2.02+0.84 · n=24 | 2.45+1.27 · n=24 | 2.94+1.57 · n=24 | 4.10+2.27 · n=24 | 4.74+3.54 · n=24 | 5.46+3.77 · n=23 | 6.67+5.17 · n=23 | |
| KPHX | 2.81−2.54 · n=25 | 2.46−2.01 · n=25 | 2.38−1.92 · n=25 | 2.41−2.14 · n=24 | 3.09−1.77 · n=24 | 2.97−1.26 · n=24 | 3.53−1.08 · n=24 | 3.87+0.02 · n=24 | 3.77+0.26 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.42+2.34 · n=25 | 2.32+2.31 · n=25 | 2.08+1.85 · n=25 | 2.12+1.50 · n=24 | 1.94+1.35 · n=24 | 2.31+1.21 · n=24 | 2.71+1.40 · n=24 | 2.93+1.42 · n=24 | 3.05+1.50 · n=23 | — | |
| KSAT | 2.27+1.77 · n=25 | 2.37+1.69 · n=25 | 1.99+0.97 · n=25 | 2.39+1.09 · n=24 | 2.25+1.10 · n=24 | 2.28+0.81 · n=24 | 3.08+1.83 · n=24 | 4.26+2.89 · n=24 | 5.21+3.91 · n=23 | 5.51+4.20 · n=23 | |
| KSEA | 1.19+0.33 · n=25 | 1.17+0.50 · n=25 | 1.47+0.98 · n=25 | 1.80+1.17 · n=24 | 1.80+1.27 · n=24 | 2.49+1.40 · n=24 | 3.04+1.65 · n=24 | 2.85+1.49 · n=24 | 3.73+2.24 · n=23 | — | |
| KSFO | 2.23+1.74 · n=25 | 2.15+1.42 · n=25 | 2.03+1.05 · n=25 | 1.98+0.53 · n=24 | 1.81+0.34 · n=24 | 1.76+0.55 · n=24 | 2.38+0.72 · n=24 | 2.63+0.94 · n=24 | 2.64+1.19 · n=23 | — | |
| KTTN | 5.20+5.20 · n=25 | 5.55+5.55 · n=25 | 5.75+5.74 · n=25 | 5.79+5.73 · n=24 | 6.20+6.10 · n=24 | 6.95+6.95 · n=24 | 7.64+7.10 · n=24 | 8.42+8.42 · n=24 | 8.72+8.62 · n=23 | 10.16+9.49 · n=23 |
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.
Where it comes from
aiwp · AURO · IFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.