Aurora (IFS init) (aurora_ifs)
source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.
Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 6.69-6.69 · n=3 | 6.26-6.26 · n=2 | 7.52-7.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | 8.59-8.59 · n=3 | 7.75-7.75 · n=2 | 6.62-6.62 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | 2.84-2.84 · n=2 | 3.01-3.01 · n=2 | 4.12-4.12 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | 6.61-6.61 · n=3 | 6.08-6.08 · n=2 | 7.76-7.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | 4.79-4.79 · n=3 | 5.03-5.03 · n=2 | 3.36-3.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | 5.36-5.36 · n=3 | 6.64-6.64 · n=2 | 5.74-5.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | 4.22-4.22 · n=3 | 3.07-3.07 · n=2 | 0.55-0.55 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | 6.32-6.32 · n=3 | 6.26-6.26 · n=2 | 6.59-6.59 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | 3.97-3.97 · n=3 | 3.98-3.98 · n=2 | 3.92-3.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | 4.63-4.63 · n=3 | 5.90-5.90 · n=2 | 6.29-6.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | 6.93-6.93 · n=3 | 6.88-6.88 · n=2 | 6.86-6.86 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | 5.74-5.74 · n=3 | 6.55-6.55 · n=2 | 7.79-7.79 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | 6.66-6.66 · n=3 | 6.90-6.90 · n=2 | 3.91-3.91 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | 2.18-1.39 · n=3 | 0.28-0.11 · n=2 | 1.64+1.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | 6.53-6.53 · n=3 | 7.57-7.57 · n=2 | 7.25-7.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | 2.95-2.95 · n=3 | 2.70-2.70 · n=2 | 1.43-1.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | 4.64-4.64 · n=3 | 4.19-4.19 · n=2 | 4.48-4.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | 5.71-5.71 · n=3 | 8.35-8.35 · n=2 | 10.42-10.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | 4.67-4.67 · n=3 | 5.18-5.18 · n=2 | 3.85-3.85 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | 6.29-6.29 · n=3 | 6.05-6.05 · n=2 | 4.64-4.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | 3.33-3.33 · n=3 | 3.91-3.91 · n=2 | 2.38-2.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | 5.42-5.42 · n=3 | 8.32-8.32 · n=2 | 8.34-8.34 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | 0.96-0.89 · n=3 | 0.54-0.54 · n=2 | 0.31+0.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.87-1.87 · n=3 | 1.67-1.67 · n=2 | 1.31-1.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | 3.05+3.05 · n=3 | 4.98+4.98 · n=2 | 4.68+4.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | 1.99-1.99 · n=2 | 2.70-2.70 · n=2 | 5.15-5.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | 2.81-2.81 · n=3 | 1.48-1.48 · n=2 | 2.60-2.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | 4.25+4.25 · n=3 | 4.41+4.41 · n=2 | 2.69+2.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | 1.15+0.42 · n=3 | 0.27+0.22 · n=2 | 0.40+0.40 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | 1.27+1.27 · n=3 | 1.43+1.43 · n=2 | 1.38+1.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | 2.39+1.57 · n=3 | 0.96+0.96 · n=2 | 0.78+0.78 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | 4.29-4.29 · n=3 | 5.96-5.96 · n=2 | 7.33-7.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | 0.95-0.95 · n=3 | 1.49-1.49 · n=2 | 2.78-2.78 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | 1.84+1.49 · n=3 | 2.97+1.32 · n=2 | 1.72-1.72 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | 1.11-0.12 · n=3 | 1.01+0.02 · n=2 | 1.50-1.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | 1.78+0.02 · n=3 | 2.40-0.74 · n=2 | 3.66-3.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | 1.23+1.05 · n=3 | 0.93+0.37 · n=2 | 0.03+0.03 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | 4.64+3.86 · n=3 | 5.09+5.09 · n=2 | 4.10+4.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | 0.90+0.90 · n=3 | 1.32+1.32 · n=2 | 0.40+0.40 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | 1.44-1.44 · n=3 | 0.41-0.41 · n=2 | 0.42+0.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | 3.20-3.20 · n=3 | 2.58-2.58 · n=2 | 5.20-5.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | 0.92-0.92 · n=3 | 1.16-1.16 · n=2 | 2.74-2.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | 2.14+0.48 · n=3 | 1.72-0.83 · n=2 | 2.52-2.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | 1.07+1.07 · n=3 | 0.95+0.18 · n=2 | 0.84-0.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | 0.98+0.35 · n=3 | 1.11-0.29 · n=2 | 1.25-1.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | 3.28+3.28 · n=3 | 4.56+4.56 · n=2 | 5.28+5.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where it comes from
aiwp · AURO · IFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences