CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

Aurora (IFS init)

aurora_ifs

source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp IFS initAURO_v100
Window
the last 30 days
Init
12Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—2.93−2.79 · n=292.54−2.26 · n=292.37−2.00 · n=292.59−1.52 · n=292.54−0.95 · n=292.50−0.09 · n=292.95+0.80 · n=293.59+1.38 · n=294.51+1.63 · n=29KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS—3.59−0.93 · n=293.72−1.12 · n=293.75−1.07 · n=293.85−0.78 · n=294.09−0.38 · n=294.23+0.16 · n=294.88+0.75 · n=295.29+0.94 · n=295.45+1.08 · n=29KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS—2.16−1.91 · n=282.17−1.60 · n=282.48−1.55 · n=282.31−0.92 · n=282.77−1.07 · n=283.36−0.71 · n=283.93+0.53 · n=284.90+1.17 · n=285.53+1.11 · n=28KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA—2.49−2.34 · n=292.26−1.90 · n=292.33−1.88 · n=292.44−1.66 · n=292.73−1.40 · n=293.12−0.96 · n=293.64+0.16 · n=294.25+0.72 · n=295.26+0.94 · n=29KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN—2.12−1.02 · n=292.35−1.15 · n=292.74−1.37 · n=293.37−1.85 · n=294.24−1.93 · n=294.86−1.99 · n=295.35−1.90 · n=296.19−1.89 · n=296.72−1.90 · n=29KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW—2.88−2.72 · n=293.19−2.96 · n=293.28−2.97 · n=293.44−2.54 · n=293.48−2.18 · n=293.51−1.70 · n=293.98−1.38 · n=294.42−1.14 · n=294.57−0.89 · n=29KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR—2.27−1.62 · n=292.19−1.33 · n=292.39−1.24 · n=292.52−0.98 · n=292.77−0.87 · n=293.15−0.50 · n=293.96+0.76 · n=294.72+1.42 · n=295.60+1.64 · n=29KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH—2.73−1.90 · n=292.80−2.02 · n=293.02−2.02 · n=293.10−1.98 · n=293.36−1.64 · n=293.48−1.10 · n=293.80−0.54 · n=294.05−0.30 · n=294.33−0.19 · n=29KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS—2.76−2.52 · n=292.56−2.29 · n=292.60−2.14 · n=292.81−2.25 · n=292.90−2.05 · n=293.41−1.43 · n=293.56−0.68 · n=293.59−0.08 · n=293.90+0.52 · n=29KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX—2.68−2.21 · n=293.13−2.76 · n=293.51−3.17 · n=293.88−3.55 · n=294.14−3.72 · n=294.22−3.66 · n=294.53−3.56 · n=295.10−3.52 · n=295.31−3.39 · n=29KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA—1.83−1.34 · n=291.94−1.40 · n=292.11−1.49 · n=292.26−1.44 · n=292.33−1.34 · n=292.28−1.24 · n=292.31−1.07 · n=292.38−0.94 · n=292.45−0.84 · n=29KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP—2.66−2.04 · n=292.51−1.57 · n=292.80−1.18 · n=293.03−1.61 · n=293.56−1.98 · n=294.26−2.00 · n=295.27−2.12 · n=296.04−2.12 · n=296.25−2.08 · n=29KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY—2.42−1.20 · n=292.44−1.05 · n=292.54−1.16 · n=292.53−0.99 · n=292.68−0.48 · n=293.14+0.34 · n=293.49+1.05 · n=293.98+1.42 · n=294.17+1.64 · n=29KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC—1.75−0.71 · n=281.64−0.41 · n=281.73−0.29 · n=282.04+0.00 · n=282.43+0.05 · n=282.69+0.42 · n=283.58+1.70 · n=284.41+2.42 · n=285.45+2.63 · n=28KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC—2.82+0.31 · n=292.98−0.22 · n=292.99−0.21 · n=292.91+0.02 · n=293.16+0.31 · n=294.24+0.66 · n=294.66+0.80 · n=294.88+1.11 · n=295.30+1.52 · n=29KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD—2.03−1.56 · n=292.07−1.28 · n=292.43−1.13 · n=292.89−1.58 · n=292.84−1.10 · n=293.45−0.29 · n=294.22−0.08 · n=294.76+0.14 · n=295.02+0.17 · n=29KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL—2.77−2.34 · n=292.59−2.04 · n=292.60−2.00 · n=292.63−1.71 · n=292.70−1.50 · n=292.99−1.14 · n=293.75+0.10 · n=294.46+0.74 · n=295.35+0.94 · n=29KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX—3.32−2.87 · n=293.38−2.73 · n=293.23−2.54 · n=293.13−2.25 · n=293.29−1.93 · n=293.31−1.03 · n=293.86+0.16 · n=294.15+1.15 · n=294.54+2.02 · n=29KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN—2.96−2.29 · n=293.27−2.70 · n=293.61−3.17 · n=293.99−3.60 · n=294.32−3.79 · n=294.49−3.87 · n=294.75−3.81 · n=295.02−3.81 · n=295.20−3.77 · n=29KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT—2.64−1.83 · n=292.89−2.13 · n=293.07−2.25 · n=293.14−2.07 · n=293.38−1.71 · n=293.48−1.23 · n=293.78−0.69 · n=294.08−0.49 · n=294.25−0.35 · n=29KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA—2.23−1.53 · n=292.28−1.45 · n=292.28−1.30 · n=292.26−1.06 · n=292.71−0.96 · n=293.07−0.68 · n=293.34−0.32 · n=293.57+0.09 · n=293.69+0.61 · n=29KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO—2.67−1.15 · n=292.90−1.53 · n=293.14−1.98 · n=293.30−2.24 · n=293.39−2.35 · n=293.34−2.13 · n=293.39−1.78 · n=293.89−1.45 · n=294.16−1.10 · n=29KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN—1.74+0.57 · n=291.97+0.90 · n=292.24+0.99 · n=292.51+1.27 · n=292.88+1.44 · n=293.45+1.86 · n=294.53+3.17 · n=295.41+3.84 · n=296.46+4.02 · n=29KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—1.72−1.58 · n=291.59−1.30 · n=291.81−1.27 · n=292.35−0.74 · n=292.59−0.06 · n=292.58+0.46 · n=293.30+0.90 · n=294.46+1.27 · n=295.62+1.25 · n=29KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS—3.07−2.65 · n=293.32−2.89 · n=293.48−2.85 · n=293.69−2.50 · n=293.95−2.12 · n=293.89−1.85 · n=294.47−1.47 · n=294.64−1.53 · n=294.27−1.44 · n=29KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS—1.53−1.00 · n=281.53−0.86 · n=282.24−0.92 · n=282.40−0.11 · n=283.52−1.23 · n=284.39−0.68 · n=284.58+0.52 · n=285.58+0.79 · n=286.29+0.28 · n=28KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA—2.06−1.58 · n=292.02−1.64 · n=292.24−1.94 · n=292.41−1.81 · n=292.99−1.44 · n=293.59−0.76 · n=294.17+0.21 · n=295.06+0.39 · n=295.89+0.27 · n=29KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN—1.79−1.01 · n=292.04−1.32 · n=292.68−1.56 · n=293.20−2.09 · n=293.95−2.10 · n=294.92−2.27 · n=295.38−2.00 · n=296.52−1.91 · n=297.17−1.93 · n=29KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW—2.64−2.64 · n=293.18−3.09 · n=293.23−3.08 · n=293.51−2.31 · n=293.75−1.94 · n=293.62−1.76 · n=294.51−1.96 · n=294.51−1.72 · n=294.52−1.42 · n=29KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR—2.44−2.04 · n=292.45−2.09 · n=292.75−2.08 · n=292.78−1.89 · n=292.96−2.18 · n=293.71−1.77 · n=294.44−0.51 · n=295.05−0.26 · n=295.62−0.35 · n=29KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH—4.08−3.45 · n=294.31−3.66 · n=294.35−3.61 · n=294.39−3.25 · n=294.49−3.14 · n=294.56−2.89 · n=294.63−2.71 · n=294.92−2.85 · n=294.80−2.83 · n=29KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS—2.93−2.92 · n=292.81−2.67 · n=292.77−2.37 · n=293.03−2.63 · n=293.28−2.35 · n=294.13−1.41 · n=294.34−0.56 · n=294.51+0.17 · n=294.82+0.94 · n=29KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX—3.44−3.11 · n=293.98−3.81 · n=294.34−4.29 · n=294.78−4.70 · n=295.08−4.97 · n=295.12−4.94 · n=295.53−4.92 · n=296.49−4.97 · n=296.74−4.87 · n=29KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA—1.94−1.33 · n=292.08−1.28 · n=292.36−1.36 · n=292.50−1.27 · n=292.48−1.16 · n=292.40−1.09 · n=292.61−0.85 · n=292.75−0.63 · n=292.76−0.50 · n=29KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP—2.22−1.69 · n=292.17−1.40 · n=292.42−1.22 · n=292.88−1.77 · n=293.42−1.83 · n=294.36−2.04 · n=295.57−2.11 · n=296.40−2.09 · n=296.35−2.20 · n=29KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY—3.16−3.13 · n=293.16−3.07 · n=293.36−3.34 · n=293.21−3.07 · n=293.04−2.53 · n=293.11−1.87 · n=293.02−1.36 · n=293.65−1.13 · n=293.70−0.96 · n=29KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC—1.45+1.19 · n=281.34+1.13 · n=281.52+1.16 · n=281.98+1.29 · n=282.20+0.84 · n=282.86+1.07 · n=283.91+2.27 · n=284.74+2.55 · n=285.60+2.50 · n=28KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC—2.54−1.55 · n=293.01−2.26 · n=293.22−2.19 · n=293.08−2.00 · n=293.58−1.84 · n=294.86−1.77 · n=294.65−1.69 · n=294.22−1.29 · n=294.78−0.79 · n=29KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD—1.44−1.24 · n=291.43−1.09 · n=291.86−1.03 · n=292.52−1.67 · n=292.39−1.04 · n=293.05−0.67 · n=293.90−0.75 · n=294.13−0.58 · n=294.33−0.74 · n=29KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL—2.23−1.05 · n=292.18−1.20 · n=292.22−1.39 · n=292.21−1.24 · n=292.37−1.25 · n=292.88−0.74 · n=293.52+0.48 · n=294.46+0.70 · n=295.27+0.61 · n=29KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX—2.99−2.76 · n=293.09−2.62 · n=292.94−2.29 · n=292.76−1.79 · n=292.54−1.39 · n=292.30−0.04 · n=293.52+1.49 · n=293.76+2.49 · n=294.51+3.40 · n=29KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN—4.56−4.56 · n=295.06−5.06 · n=295.62−5.62 · n=296.16−6.16 · n=296.52−6.37 · n=296.63−6.53 · n=296.89−6.56 · n=297.11−6.70 · n=297.38−6.75 · n=29KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT—2.53−2.41 · n=292.91−2.78 · n=293.17−2.91 · n=293.19−2.63 · n=293.38−2.13 · n=293.35−1.86 · n=293.70−1.47 · n=293.89−1.48 · n=293.64−1.36 · n=29KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA—2.24−2.07 · n=292.40−2.12 · n=292.58−2.13 · n=292.39−1.99 · n=293.11−1.92 · n=293.39−1.56 · n=293.61−1.04 · n=293.93−0.43 · n=294.06+0.27 · n=29KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO—3.99−3.41 · n=294.31−3.71 · n=294.79−4.29 · n=295.34−4.60 · n=295.42−4.68 · n=295.26−4.41 · n=295.48−4.04 · n=296.13−3.77 · n=296.47−3.37 · n=29KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN—1.39+0.48 · n=291.44+0.35 · n=291.56+0.26 · n=291.92+0.51 · n=292.32+0.41 · n=293.02+0.99 · n=294.16+2.33 · n=294.92+2.57 · n=295.76+2.49 · n=29KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—2.45−2.30 · n=292.01−1.78 · n=291.83−1.40 · n=291.95−1.01 · n=291.71−0.59 · n=291.90+0.45 · n=292.66+1.78 · n=293.29+2.70 · n=293.98+3.19 · n=29KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS—3.37+2.51 · n=293.37+2.24 · n=293.32+2.14 · n=293.43+2.24 · n=293.96+2.75 · n=294.50+3.61 · n=295.18+4.59 · n=295.96+5.08 · n=296.60+5.37 · n=29KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS—2.00−1.88 · n=281.99−1.41 · n=282.06−1.13 · n=281.69−0.51 · n=281.67+0.17 · n=282.42+0.59 · n=283.62+2.12 · n=284.60+3.05 · n=285.15+3.27 · n=28KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA—1.90−1.87 · n=291.53−1.25 · n=291.56−1.02 · n=291.76−0.80 · n=291.97−0.37 · n=292.54−0.06 · n=293.04+1.21 · n=294.04+2.13 · n=294.99+2.63 · n=29KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN—2.40−1.35 · n=292.22−1.24 · n=292.32−1.26 · n=292.95−1.69 · n=293.63−1.60 · n=294.20−1.56 · n=294.44−1.78 · n=294.93−1.76 · n=295.39−1.86 · n=29KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW—1.87−1.66 · n=291.99−1.75 · n=292.28−1.97 · n=292.23−1.75 · n=292.24−1.39 · n=292.47−0.56 · n=292.93+0.27 · n=293.93+0.69 · n=294.22+0.96 · n=29KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR—1.24+0.01 · n=291.45+0.33 · n=291.78+0.57 · n=292.05+0.82 · n=292.40+1.43 · n=292.69+1.76 · n=293.83+3.19 · n=294.88+4.22 · n=296.05+4.65 · n=29KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH—1.45−0.05 · n=291.45−0.24 · n=291.79−0.32 · n=292.03−0.42 · n=292.55+0.14 · n=293.03+0.98 · n=293.63+1.97 · n=294.22+2.57 · n=294.76+2.85 · n=29KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS—2.64−2.40 · n=292.36−2.14 · n=292.39−1.96 · n=292.43−1.94 · n=292.35−1.72 · n=292.38−1.34 · n=292.41−0.68 · n=292.38−0.20 · n=292.81+0.26 · n=29KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX—1.77−1.45 · n=292.13−1.94 · n=292.49−2.40 · n=292.82−2.72 · n=292.99−2.75 · n=293.30−2.74 · n=293.38−2.60 · n=293.40−2.49 · n=293.58−2.31 · n=29KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA—1.44−0.89 · n=291.47−0.89 · n=291.53−1.05 · n=291.78−0.98 · n=291.85−0.86 · n=291.86−0.71 · n=291.90−0.58 · n=292.00−0.48 · n=292.09−0.39 · n=29KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP—1.83−1.23 · n=291.62−0.68 · n=292.10−0.12 · n=292.25−0.45 · n=292.61−1.01 · n=293.20−0.93 · n=294.24−1.03 · n=294.76−1.00 · n=295.52−0.79 · n=29KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY—2.12+0.55 · n=292.12+0.76 · n=292.21+0.72 · n=292.30+0.74 · n=292.75+1.30 · n=293.78+2.38 · n=294.40+3.39 · n=294.92+3.96 · n=295.15+4.13 · n=29KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC—1.33−0.77 · n=281.36−0.43 · n=281.60−0.10 · n=282.12+0.21 · n=282.59+0.80 · n=282.70+1.28 · n=283.80+2.79 · n=284.88+3.91 · n=286.22+4.29 · n=28KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC—2.72+1.65 · n=292.69+1.28 · n=292.99+1.37 · n=293.02+1.59 · n=293.32+1.96 · n=294.13+2.63 · n=295.21+2.91 · n=295.43+3.08 · n=295.76+3.50 · n=29KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD—1.20−0.68 · n=291.44−0.26 · n=291.85−0.08 · n=292.50−0.52 · n=292.43−0.01 · n=293.15+1.24 · n=294.00+1.77 · n=294.92+2.14 · n=295.24+2.35 · n=29KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL—2.12−2.05 · n=291.93−1.59 · n=292.10−1.37 · n=292.06−1.04 · n=292.12−0.41 · n=292.48−0.10 · n=293.40+1.29 · n=294.48+2.31 · n=295.55+2.70 · n=29KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX—3.94−3.83 · n=293.67−3.57 · n=293.53−3.49 · n=293.53−3.34 · n=293.79−3.23 · n=293.54−2.90 · n=293.84−2.18 · n=293.87−1.22 · n=293.77−0.45 · n=29KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN—1.81+0.44 · n=291.83+0.07 · n=291.80−0.32 · n=291.86−0.59 · n=292.11−0.60 · n=292.34−0.69 · n=292.81−0.52 · n=293.26−0.40 · n=293.39−0.30 · n=29KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT—1.73+0.33 · n=291.84−0.09 · n=292.05−0.34 · n=291.96−0.31 · n=292.30+0.09 · n=292.57+0.79 · n=293.01+1.59 · n=293.59+2.06 · n=293.97+2.36 · n=29KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA—1.67−1.42 · n=291.69−1.32 · n=291.40−0.97 · n=291.55−0.70 · n=291.91−0.37 · n=292.49−0.18 · n=292.81+0.06 · n=293.09+0.33 · n=293.22+0.65 · n=29KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO—1.93+0.46 · n=292.05+0.07 · n=292.03−0.31 · n=292.00−0.63 · n=292.11−0.69 · n=292.03−0.52 · n=292.05−0.24 · n=292.45+0.14 · n=292.60+0.40 · n=29KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN—2.00+1.73 · n=292.49+2.17 · n=293.01+2.35 · n=293.23+2.68 · n=293.42+3.30 · n=294.08+3.63 · n=295.30+5.08 · n=296.48+6.11 · n=297.52+6.51 · n=29KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—4.27−4.27 · n=294.00−3.99 · n=293.96−3.96 · n=294.11−3.43 · n=294.25−2.75 · n=293.63−2.23 · n=294.05−1.78 · n=294.80−1.42 · n=295.95−1.43 · n=29KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS—7.06−7.06 · n=297.31−7.31 · n=297.46−7.27 · n=297.42−6.92 · n=297.42−6.53 · n=297.24−6.27 · n=297.67−5.88 · n=297.95−5.94 · n=297.45−5.85 · n=29KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS—2.67−2.56 · n=292.55−2.39 · n=293.01−2.51 · n=293.17−1.83 · n=294.59−2.97 · n=295.16−2.43 · n=294.78−1.11 · n=295.62−0.86 · n=296.16−1.33 · n=29KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA—3.40−3.40 · n=293.47−3.47 · n=293.77−3.77 · n=293.92−3.63 · n=294.17−3.26 · n=294.78−2.58 · n=295.05−1.61 · n=295.88−1.43 · n=296.49−1.56 · n=29KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN—6.05−6.05 · n=296.36−6.36 · n=296.60−6.60 · n=297.30−7.12 · n=297.77−7.14 · n=298.53−7.31 · n=298.50−7.04 · n=299.53−6.95 · n=299.34−6.97 · n=29KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW—6.09−6.09 · n=296.54−6.54 · n=296.53−6.53 · n=296.39−5.76 · n=296.54−5.39 · n=296.28−5.21 · n=297.07−5.41 · n=296.80−5.17 · n=296.56−4.87 · n=29KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR—3.81−3.81 · n=293.86−3.86 · n=293.90−3.86 · n=293.97−3.66 · n=294.42−3.95 · n=294.82−3.54 · n=295.15−2.28 · n=295.50−2.03 · n=296.05−2.12 · n=29KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH—7.22−7.04 · n=297.43−7.25 · n=297.46−7.20 · n=297.26−6.84 · n=297.26−6.73 · n=297.14−6.48 · n=297.12−6.30 · n=297.34−6.43 · n=297.20−6.42 · n=29KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS—4.57−4.57 · n=294.31−4.31 · n=294.03−4.02 · n=294.34−4.28 · n=294.23−3.99 · n=294.68−3.06 · n=294.97−2.20 · n=294.62−1.47 · n=294.81−0.71 · n=29KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX—5.88−5.87 · n=296.57−6.57 · n=297.05−7.05 · n=297.46−7.46 · n=297.73−7.73 · n=297.70−7.70 · n=297.77−7.68 · n=298.60−7.73 · n=298.57−7.63 · n=29KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA—3.27−3.27 · n=293.22−3.22 · n=293.29−3.29 · n=293.35−3.20 · n=293.29−3.10 · n=293.16−3.02 · n=292.98−2.78 · n=293.00−2.56 · n=293.00−2.43 · n=29KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP—5.11−5.01 · n=294.79−4.71 · n=294.58−4.54 · n=295.22−5.08 · n=295.67−5.14 · n=296.61−5.35 · n=297.83−5.42 · n=298.57−5.40 · n=298.13−5.51 · n=29KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY—5.44−5.44 · n=295.38−5.38 · n=295.65−5.65 · n=295.38−5.38 · n=294.84−4.84 · n=294.49−4.18 · n=294.06−3.67 · n=294.24−3.44 · n=294.26−3.27 · n=29KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC—1.14−1.03 · n=291.34−1.07 · n=291.72−1.05 · n=292.02−0.91 · n=292.56−1.23 · n=293.27−0.90 · n=293.95+0.31 · n=294.64+0.59 · n=295.22+0.53 · n=29KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC—4.78−4.72 · n=295.57−5.43 · n=295.70−5.37 · n=295.45−5.18 · n=295.83−5.01 · n=296.92−4.94 · n=296.82−4.87 · n=296.11−4.47 · n=296.03−3.97 · n=29KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD—3.51−3.51 · n=293.42−3.36 · n=293.79−3.30 · n=294.38−3.94 · n=294.09−3.31 · n=294.25−2.94 · n=294.90−3.02 · n=294.98−2.85 · n=295.16−3.00 · n=29KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL—3.22−2.95 · n=293.27−3.10 · n=293.49−3.29 · n=293.44−3.14 · n=293.74−3.15 · n=294.15−2.64 · n=294.47−1.42 · n=295.20−1.20 · n=295.60−1.28 · n=29KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX—5.42−5.42 · n=295.28−5.28 · n=294.95−4.95 · n=294.48−4.45 · n=294.09−4.05 · n=293.39−2.70 · n=293.70−1.17 · n=293.53−0.17 · n=294.08+0.74 · n=29KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN—6.97−6.97 · n=297.48−7.48 · n=298.03−8.03 · n=298.57−8.57 · n=298.79−8.79 · n=298.94−8.94 · n=298.98−8.98 · n=299.15−9.11 · n=299.25−9.17 · n=29KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT—6.01−6.01 · n=296.38−6.38 · n=296.51−6.51 · n=296.29−6.24 · n=296.27−5.74 · n=296.09−5.46 · n=296.31−5.07 · n=296.53−5.09 · n=296.11−4.96 · n=29KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA—3.62−3.54 · n=293.72−3.59 · n=293.82−3.60 · n=293.59−3.46 · n=294.08−3.39 · n=294.10−3.03 · n=294.03−2.51 · n=294.16−1.90 · n=294.16−1.20 · n=29KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO—7.15−7.15 · n=297.46−7.46 · n=298.03−8.03 · n=298.35−8.35 · n=298.44−8.42 · n=298.16−8.16 · n=297.80−7.78 · n=298.04−7.51 · n=298.44−7.12 · n=29KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN—1.81−1.45 · n=291.82−1.58 · n=292.22−1.67 · n=292.53−1.42 · n=292.95−1.52 · n=293.53−0.94 · n=294.42+0.39 · n=294.97+0.64 · n=295.56+0.55 · n=29KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—2.05−0.79 · n=291.58−0.27 · n=291.44+0.11 · n=291.61+0.49 · n=291.66+0.92 · n=292.29+1.95 · n=293.55+3.28 · n=294.32+4.20 · n=294.80+4.70 · n=29KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS—4.48+4.23 · n=294.30+3.95 · n=294.31+3.85 · n=294.42+3.95 · n=294.90+4.47 · n=295.75+5.33 · n=296.65+6.31 · n=297.44+6.80 · n=298.11+7.09 · n=29KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS—1.22+0.24 · n=291.62+0.67 · n=291.92+0.92 · n=292.15+1.58 · n=292.75+2.24 · n=293.36+2.60 · n=294.79+4.10 · n=295.93+5.07 · n=296.58+5.31 · n=29KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA—1.13−0.22 · n=291.31+0.40 · n=291.58+0.62 · n=292.01+0.85 · n=292.07+1.28 · n=292.77+1.59 · n=293.53+2.86 · n=294.68+3.78 · n=295.80+4.27 · n=29KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN—2.56+0.66 · n=292.30+0.77 · n=292.41+0.76 · n=292.54+0.33 · n=293.06+0.42 · n=293.54+0.45 · n=293.87+0.23 · n=294.60+0.26 · n=295.00+0.15 · n=29KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW—1.56+0.21 · n=291.89+0.12 · n=292.06−0.10 · n=292.35+0.12 · n=292.71+0.48 · n=293.25+1.30 · n=293.94+2.14 · n=294.31+2.56 · n=294.81+2.83 · n=29KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR—2.59+2.38 · n=292.93+2.70 · n=293.27+2.94 · n=293.63+3.19 · n=294.17+3.80 · n=294.58+4.13 · n=295.85+5.56 · n=296.82+6.59 · n=297.98+7.02 · n=29KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH—2.38+1.93 · n=292.44+1.74 · n=292.63+1.66 · n=292.85+1.56 · n=293.43+2.12 · n=294.03+2.96 · n=294.72+3.95 · n=295.34+4.55 · n=295.97+4.82 · n=29KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS—1.96−0.82 · n=291.79−0.55 · n=291.89−0.37 · n=292.01−0.36 · n=291.94−0.14 · n=292.25+0.24 · n=292.43+0.90 · n=292.63+1.39 · n=292.92+1.84 · n=29KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX—1.18+0.29 · n=291.11−0.21 · n=291.12−0.66 · n=291.37−0.98 · n=291.85−1.02 · n=292.06−1.00 · n=292.48−0.86 · n=293.05−0.75 · n=293.38−0.58 · n=29KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA—1.54+0.83 · n=291.59+0.83 · n=291.52+0.68 · n=291.72+0.75 · n=291.81+0.87 · n=291.91+1.02 · n=291.98+1.14 · n=292.09+1.24 · n=292.16+1.34 · n=29KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP—2.08+1.02 · n=292.23+1.56 · n=292.52+2.13 · n=292.57+1.79 · n=292.58+1.23 · n=293.60+1.31 · n=294.64+1.21 · n=294.62+1.25 · n=295.44+1.46 · n=29KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY—3.20+2.55 · n=293.26+2.75 · n=293.20+2.72 · n=293.41+2.74 · n=294.07+3.30 · n=295.02+4.38 · n=295.85+5.39 · n=296.39+5.96 · n=296.68+6.12 · n=29KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC—1.69+0.66 · n=291.73+1.02 · n=291.89+1.29 · n=292.41+1.61 · n=293.00+2.24 · n=293.28+2.66 · n=294.48+4.14 · n=295.63+5.20 · n=296.89+5.59 · n=29KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC—3.46+3.11 · n=293.31+2.74 · n=293.55+2.83 · n=293.64+3.05 · n=294.02+3.42 · n=294.85+4.09 · n=295.97+4.37 · n=295.95+4.54 · n=296.21+4.96 · n=29KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD—1.56+0.80 · n=291.96+1.22 · n=292.44+1.40 · n=292.68+0.96 · n=292.55+1.47 · n=293.64+2.73 · n=294.50+3.26 · n=295.57+3.62 · n=295.82+3.83 · n=29KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL—1.50−0.07 · n=291.41+0.39 · n=291.85+0.61 · n=292.42+0.94 · n=292.74+1.56 · n=293.10+1.88 · n=294.21+3.27 · n=295.46+4.29 · n=296.58+4.67 · n=29KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX—2.79−2.53 · n=292.67−2.28 · n=292.69−2.20 · n=292.65−2.05 · n=293.07−1.94 · n=293.01−1.60 · n=293.47−0.88 · n=293.84+0.08 · n=293.86+0.84 · n=29KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN—2.44+2.33 · n=292.17+1.96 · n=291.94+1.57 · n=291.92+1.30 · n=292.12+1.29 · n=292.27+1.20 · n=292.65+1.37 · n=293.12+1.49 · n=293.26+1.59 · n=29KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT—1.92+1.31 · n=291.91+0.89 · n=292.17+0.63 · n=292.17+0.67 · n=292.66+1.07 · n=292.99+1.77 · n=293.63+2.57 · n=294.19+3.04 · n=294.67+3.34 · n=29KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA—1.33+0.42 · n=291.33+0.51 · n=291.42+0.87 · n=291.86+1.13 · n=292.29+1.46 · n=292.68+1.66 · n=293.17+1.89 · n=293.46+2.16 · n=293.64+2.49 · n=29KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO—2.11+1.38 · n=292.13+1.00 · n=292.01+0.62 · n=291.92+0.30 · n=292.02+0.24 · n=291.90+0.41 · n=292.16+0.69 · n=292.65+1.07 · n=292.95+1.33 · n=29KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN—4.79+4.79 · n=295.24+5.23 · n=295.54+5.42 · n=295.85+5.74 · n=296.42+6.36 · n=296.77+6.69 · n=298.22+8.14 · n=299.18+9.18 · n=2910.13+9.57 · n=29KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · AURO · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.