CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

Aurora (IFS init)

aurora_ifs

source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp IFS initAURO_v100
Window
the last 365 days
Init
12Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—3.56−3.27 · n=2403.63−3.30 · n=2393.68−3.27 · n=2383.85−3.25 · n=2373.96−2.98 · n=2364.25−2.53 · n=2354.58−2.02 · n=2334.95−1.62 · n=2325.47−1.24 · n=231KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS—3.02−1.12 · n=2403.18−1.22 · n=2393.33−1.14 · n=2383.47−1.00 · n=2373.76−0.73 · n=2364.20−0.32 · n=2354.72+0.14 · n=2345.12+0.55 · n=2335.63+0.83 · n=232KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS—2.65−1.88 · n=2302.69−1.74 · n=2292.87−1.71 · n=2283.09−1.68 · n=2263.45−1.84 · n=2253.86−1.90 · n=2244.33−1.40 · n=2224.69−1.16 · n=2215.22−1.23 · n=220KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA—3.17−2.73 · n=2403.27−2.58 · n=2393.43−2.49 · n=2383.68−2.38 · n=2374.11−2.35 · n=2364.57−2.30 · n=2354.99−1.84 · n=2335.27−1.49 · n=2325.85−1.35 · n=231KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN—2.83−1.25 · n=2403.18−1.58 · n=2393.58−1.79 · n=2384.08−1.89 · n=2374.88−1.91 · n=2365.65−1.88 · n=2346.50−1.95 · n=2337.32−2.20 · n=2327.92−2.53 · n=232KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW—2.75−2.27 · n=2383.06−2.47 · n=2373.23−2.40 · n=2353.51−2.29 · n=2343.90−2.09 · n=2344.35−1.79 · n=2335.00−1.39 · n=2315.56−0.95 · n=2306.10−0.81 · n=229KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR—3.03−2.65 · n=2393.09−2.54 · n=2383.25−2.55 · n=2373.51−2.49 · n=2363.86−2.41 · n=2354.25−2.34 · n=2344.73−1.84 · n=2325.10−1.45 · n=2315.69−1.38 · n=230KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH—2.75−2.09 · n=2412.97−2.26 · n=2403.13−2.31 · n=2393.29−2.31 · n=2383.56−2.15 · n=2373.86−1.76 · n=2364.19−1.28 · n=2344.54−0.86 · n=2334.91−0.44 · n=232KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS—3.08−2.69 · n=2403.16−2.66 · n=2403.28−2.69 · n=2393.47−2.74 · n=2383.76−2.82 · n=2374.08−2.99 · n=2354.51−3.10 · n=2344.96−3.32 · n=2335.44−3.44 · n=232KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX—2.13−1.48 · n=2412.38−1.80 · n=2402.63−2.10 · n=2392.92−2.36 · n=2383.15−2.56 · n=2373.35−2.77 · n=2353.59−2.94 · n=2343.85−3.11 · n=2334.06−3.25 · n=232KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA—1.95−1.28 · n=2402.02−1.35 · n=2382.11−1.36 · n=2372.24−1.35 · n=2362.44−1.33 · n=2352.65−1.19 · n=2342.86−0.94 · n=2323.00−0.74 · n=2323.08−0.50 · n=230KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP—2.99−2.50 · n=2413.16−2.44 · n=2403.48−2.40 · n=2393.83−2.55 · n=2384.28−2.36 · n=2374.71−2.02 · n=2365.56−1.59 · n=2356.30−1.36 · n=2346.94−1.14 · n=233KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY—2.38−1.23 · n=2412.49−1.31 · n=2402.62−1.43 · n=2392.78−1.52 · n=2383.09−1.50 · n=2373.43−1.09 · n=2363.73−0.67 · n=2344.02−0.24 · n=2334.45+0.22 · n=232KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC—2.56−1.76 · n=2392.64−1.66 · n=2382.83−1.67 · n=2373.11−1.65 · n=2363.48−1.60 · n=2353.93−1.58 · n=2344.53−1.12 · n=2334.93−0.77 · n=2325.57−0.70 · n=231KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC—3.02−0.57 · n=2403.16−0.67 · n=2393.33−0.77 · n=2383.80−0.82 · n=2374.32−0.70 · n=2365.02−0.47 · n=2355.68−0.15 · n=2336.32+0.25 · n=2326.92+0.25 · n=231KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD—2.51−1.70 · n=2412.73−1.74 · n=2402.99−1.69 · n=2393.43−1.73 · n=2383.89−1.72 · n=2374.44−1.29 · n=2365.26−0.89 · n=2345.94−0.75 · n=2336.44−0.76 · n=232KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL—3.27−2.82 · n=2413.24−2.66 · n=2403.41−2.60 · n=2393.66−2.48 · n=2383.96−2.43 · n=2374.30−2.33 · n=2364.73−1.81 · n=2345.03−1.43 · n=2335.64−1.32 · n=232KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX—3.50−3.11 · n=2413.59−3.06 · n=2403.71−3.09 · n=2393.94−3.24 · n=2384.28−3.43 · n=2374.54−3.45 · n=2354.89−3.49 · n=2345.27−3.65 · n=2335.61−3.76 · n=232KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN—2.72−1.95 · n=2402.96−2.25 · n=2393.18−2.51 · n=2383.40−2.75 · n=2373.55−2.87 · n=2363.67−2.97 · n=2343.83−3.06 · n=2333.97−3.14 · n=2324.10−3.23 · n=231KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT—2.71−1.98 · n=2412.91−2.10 · n=2403.03−2.09 · n=2393.16−1.98 · n=2383.46−1.72 · n=2373.79−1.30 · n=2364.21−0.85 · n=2354.54−0.45 · n=2345.03−0.17 · n=233KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA—2.26−1.44 · n=2412.34−1.37 · n=2402.43−1.31 · n=2392.52−1.18 · n=2382.82−0.94 · n=2373.23−0.66 · n=2353.56−0.51 · n=2343.86−0.43 · n=2333.96−0.24 · n=232KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO—2.58−1.83 · n=2412.76−2.06 · n=2402.90−2.24 · n=2393.01−2.33 · n=2383.13−2.37 · n=2373.27−2.39 · n=2353.44−2.50 · n=2343.60−2.58 · n=2333.68−2.58 · n=232KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN—1.92−0.13 · n=2362.14+0.01 · n=2352.44+0.05 · n=2342.82+0.15 · n=2333.29+0.26 · n=2323.86+0.34 · n=2314.57+0.87 · n=2295.13+1.29 · n=2285.84+1.38 · n=227KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

Up to 4 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—2.87−2.67 · n=2402.98−2.70 · n=2393.09−2.72 · n=2383.33−2.72 · n=2373.44−2.31 · n=2363.70−1.97 · n=2354.20−1.58 · n=2334.69−1.11 · n=2325.29−0.83 · n=231KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS—3.86−3.66 · n=2404.14−3.81 · n=2394.17−3.73 · n=2384.20−3.56 · n=2374.36−3.33 · n=2364.75−3.06 · n=2355.13−2.64 · n=2345.32−2.44 · n=2335.64−2.46 · n=232KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS—1.97−0.71 · n=2302.19−0.61 · n=2292.47−0.73 · n=2282.86−0.68 · n=2263.60−1.12 · n=2254.21−1.29 · n=2244.92−0.71 · n=2225.40−0.61 · n=2215.97−0.98 · n=220KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA—2.55−1.94 · n=2402.79−1.86 · n=2393.01−1.70 · n=2383.37−1.63 · n=2373.79−1.58 · n=2364.28−1.50 · n=2354.64−0.99 · n=2334.98−0.65 · n=2325.68−0.80 · n=231KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN—2.41−1.78 · n=2402.94−2.27 · n=2393.39−2.59 · n=2383.96−2.76 · n=2374.94−2.91 · n=2365.95−2.97 · n=2346.99−3.17 · n=2338.12−3.68 · n=2328.83−4.19 · n=232KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW—3.64−3.48 · n=2383.89−3.72 · n=2373.89−3.66 · n=2354.07−3.48 · n=2344.46−3.26 · n=2344.79−3.13 · n=2335.31−2.75 · n=2315.81−2.55 · n=2306.27−2.66 · n=229KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR—2.86−2.47 · n=2392.95−2.47 · n=2383.25−2.57 · n=2373.51−2.57 · n=2363.99−2.49 · n=2354.42−2.46 · n=2344.91−1.89 · n=2325.21−1.59 · n=2316.03−1.87 · n=230KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH—3.43−3.19 · n=2413.62−3.25 · n=2403.65−3.26 · n=2393.78−3.14 · n=2383.99−2.99 · n=2374.08−2.76 · n=2364.35−2.34 · n=2344.55−2.07 · n=2334.85−1.84 · n=232KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS—2.90−2.75 · n=2402.98−2.69 · n=2403.06−2.68 · n=2393.35−2.75 · n=2383.76−2.81 · n=2374.28−2.97 · n=2354.83−3.12 · n=2345.41−3.40 · n=2335.95−3.48 · n=232KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX—2.32−1.66 · n=2412.56−2.00 · n=2402.83−2.34 · n=2393.19−2.65 · n=2383.46−2.89 · n=2373.72−3.17 · n=2354.06−3.44 · n=2344.44−3.70 · n=2334.71−3.87 · n=232KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA—2.45−1.97 · n=2402.55−2.03 · n=2382.66−1.99 · n=2372.82−2.00 · n=2362.98−1.93 · n=2353.12−1.76 · n=2343.34−1.46 · n=2323.37−1.25 · n=2323.43−1.07 · n=230KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP—3.07−2.69 · n=2413.26−2.67 · n=2403.51−2.60 · n=2393.96−2.90 · n=2384.41−2.57 · n=2374.79−2.27 · n=2365.63−1.78 · n=2356.36−1.63 · n=2347.03−1.49 · n=233KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY—3.20−3.00 · n=2413.34−3.10 · n=2403.41−3.16 · n=2393.60−3.30 · n=2383.85−3.26 · n=2374.16−2.95 · n=2364.28−2.61 · n=2344.52−2.24 · n=2334.78−1.88 · n=232KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC—2.11−1.08 · n=2392.24−1.12 · n=2382.54−1.24 · n=2372.84−1.31 · n=2363.32−1.30 · n=2353.84−1.34 · n=2344.51−0.81 · n=2334.85−0.58 · n=2325.74−0.83 · n=231KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC—3.38−2.61 · n=2403.60−2.90 · n=2393.91−3.02 · n=2384.28−3.05 · n=2374.84−3.16 · n=2365.72−3.10 · n=2356.15−2.83 · n=2336.60−2.77 · n=2327.15−3.01 · n=231KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD—2.64−1.84 · n=2412.82−1.98 · n=2403.07−1.91 · n=2393.69−2.06 · n=2384.09−2.01 · n=2374.53−1.61 · n=2365.28−1.15 · n=2345.83−1.19 · n=2336.31−1.27 · n=232KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL—2.35−1.63 · n=2412.49−1.55 · n=2402.74−1.53 · n=2392.99−1.45 · n=2383.41−1.45 · n=2373.94−1.36 · n=2364.40−0.77 · n=2344.79−0.47 · n=2335.70−0.64 · n=232KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX—2.97−2.80 · n=2413.03−2.71 · n=2403.24−2.72 · n=2393.51−2.80 · n=2383.76−2.95 · n=2374.05−2.89 · n=2354.63−2.99 · n=2345.18−3.30 · n=2335.65−3.48 · n=232KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN—3.67−3.66 · n=2404.03−4.02 · n=2394.34−4.31 · n=2384.68−4.63 · n=2374.87−4.79 · n=2365.04−4.95 · n=2345.30−5.14 · n=2335.51−5.32 · n=2325.69−5.46 · n=231KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT—3.56−3.37 · n=2413.74−3.53 · n=2403.78−3.47 · n=2393.82−3.33 · n=2384.00−3.12 · n=2374.22−2.80 · n=2364.51−2.43 · n=2354.73−2.26 · n=2345.15−2.31 · n=233KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA—2.23−1.55 · n=2412.31−1.44 · n=2402.50−1.38 · n=2392.70−1.35 · n=2383.26−1.08 · n=2373.85−0.84 · n=2354.11−0.67 · n=2344.53−0.60 · n=2334.63−0.35 · n=232KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO—3.60−3.23 · n=2413.82−3.43 · n=2404.06−3.67 · n=2394.18−3.76 · n=2384.41−3.85 · n=2374.66−3.98 · n=2354.99−4.22 · n=2345.22−4.44 · n=2335.37−4.46 · n=232KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN—1.84+0.74 · n=2362.05+0.75 · n=2352.40+0.70 · n=2342.67+0.80 · n=2333.22+0.92 · n=2323.91+1.05 · n=2314.73+1.72 · n=2295.23+2.07 · n=2286.06+1.92 · n=227KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—2.52−2.34 · n=2402.55−2.37 · n=2392.53−2.28 · n=2382.62−2.27 · n=2372.74−2.00 · n=2363.19−1.41 · n=2353.60−0.67 · n=2333.91−0.24 · n=2324.46+0.33 · n=231KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS—2.81+1.58 · n=2402.90+1.55 · n=2393.13+1.59 · n=2383.30+1.61 · n=2373.66+1.85 · n=2364.26+2.45 · n=2354.84+2.99 · n=2345.41+3.65 · n=2336.12+4.30 · n=232KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS—2.59−2.19 · n=2302.52−2.01 · n=2292.55−1.75 · n=2282.63−1.62 · n=2262.71−1.39 · n=2252.94−1.21 · n=2243.40−0.60 · n=2223.74−0.17 · n=2214.18−0.06 · n=220KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA—2.63−2.35 · n=2402.63−2.16 · n=2392.73−2.06 · n=2382.89−1.84 · n=2373.26−1.60 · n=2363.79−1.49 · n=2354.38−1.01 · n=2334.76−0.56 · n=2325.31−0.18 · n=231KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN—2.62−0.78 · n=2402.78−0.97 · n=2393.09−1.14 · n=2383.51−1.21 · n=2373.97−1.03 · n=2364.58−0.93 · n=2345.30−0.77 · n=2335.79−0.78 · n=2326.24−0.99 · n=232KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW—1.64−1.06 · n=2381.96−1.22 · n=2372.18−1.16 · n=2352.55−1.13 · n=2342.97−0.90 · n=2343.54−0.49 · n=2334.13−0.06 · n=2314.81+0.67 · n=2305.40+1.07 · n=229KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR—2.16−1.74 · n=2392.24−1.56 · n=2382.35−1.50 · n=2372.61−1.29 · n=2362.82−1.02 · n=2353.17−0.81 · n=2343.76−0.25 · n=2324.29+0.34 · n=2314.92+0.69 · n=230KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH—1.68−0.51 · n=2411.83−0.74 · n=2402.02−0.77 · n=2392.24−0.84 · n=2382.67−0.57 · n=2373.13−0.02 · n=2363.59+0.64 · n=2344.24+1.25 · n=2334.83+1.92 · n=232KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS—3.64−2.99 · n=2403.71−2.93 · n=2403.77−2.90 · n=2393.78−2.86 · n=2383.81−2.82 · n=2373.89−2.93 · n=2354.12−2.91 · n=2344.40−3.04 · n=2334.82−3.17 · n=232KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX—1.85−1.46 · n=2412.13−1.78 · n=2402.43−2.07 · n=2392.65−2.29 · n=2382.82−2.41 · n=2372.97−2.55 · n=2353.00−2.62 · n=2343.10−2.64 · n=2333.23−2.71 · n=232KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA—1.56−0.54 · n=2401.54−0.60 · n=2381.58−0.64 · n=2371.74−0.60 · n=2361.96−0.59 · n=2352.25−0.45 · n=2342.49−0.20 · n=2322.73+0.00 · n=2322.83+0.31 · n=230KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP—2.37−2.13 · n=2412.50−2.05 · n=2402.81−2.02 · n=2393.04−2.01 · n=2383.32−1.78 · n=2373.79−1.43 · n=2364.51−0.97 · n=2355.36−0.70 · n=2345.97−0.40 · n=233KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY—1.81+0.71 · n=2411.86+0.63 · n=2401.95+0.56 · n=2392.08+0.49 · n=2382.27+0.49 · n=2372.78+1.03 · n=2363.22+1.58 · n=2343.66+2.08 · n=2334.24+2.65 · n=232KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC—2.28−1.53 · n=2392.32−1.33 · n=2382.41−1.22 · n=2372.71−1.07 · n=2362.87−0.79 · n=2353.27−0.64 · n=2343.96−0.12 · n=2334.43+0.41 · n=2325.13+0.71 · n=231KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC—2.74+1.45 · n=2402.78+1.48 · n=2392.89+1.53 · n=2383.36+1.43 · n=2373.81+1.73 · n=2364.31+2.07 · n=2355.08+2.40 · n=2335.72+3.08 · n=2326.37+3.31 · n=231KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD—1.79−1.10 · n=2412.03−1.09 · n=2402.19−1.06 · n=2392.50−0.83 · n=2382.83−0.71 · n=2373.29−0.10 · n=2364.14+0.47 · n=2344.95+0.90 · n=2335.47+1.10 · n=232KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL—2.80−2.61 · n=2412.68−2.36 · n=2402.83−2.23 · n=2392.93−2.02 · n=2383.11−1.70 · n=2373.36−1.52 · n=2363.94−0.95 · n=2344.40−0.42 · n=2334.99−0.07 · n=232KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX—4.26−4.07 · n=2414.28−4.07 · n=2404.29−4.08 · n=2394.40−4.17 · n=2384.72−4.37 · n=2374.91−4.45 · n=2354.98−4.47 · n=2345.21−4.50 · n=2335.47−4.56 · n=232KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN—2.20−0.12 · n=2402.33−0.37 · n=2392.45−0.62 · n=2382.54−0.78 · n=2372.68−0.87 · n=2362.70−0.89 · n=2342.77−0.89 · n=2332.89−0.85 · n=2322.99−0.89 · n=231KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT—2.07−0.98 · n=2412.24−1.07 · n=2402.46−1.17 · n=2392.65−1.12 · n=2383.05−0.91 · n=2373.50−0.39 · n=2364.07+0.15 · n=2354.53+0.81 · n=2345.22+1.50 · n=233KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA—1.87−1.40 · n=2411.89−1.37 · n=2401.91−1.33 · n=2391.95−1.11 · n=2382.10−0.84 · n=2372.31−0.52 · n=2352.68−0.35 · n=2342.98−0.23 · n=2333.11−0.11 · n=232KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO—1.80−0.80 · n=2411.95−1.05 · n=2402.04−1.19 · n=2392.17−1.29 · n=2382.25−1.25 · n=2372.37−1.16 · n=2352.46−1.13 · n=2342.60−1.08 · n=2332.64−1.06 · n=232KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN—1.49+0.34 · n=2361.82+0.57 · n=2352.12+0.65 · n=2342.55+0.86 · n=2332.90+1.23 · n=2323.41+1.37 · n=2314.21+1.95 · n=2295.08+2.52 · n=2285.76+2.85 · n=227KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—5.94−5.92 · n=2415.97−5.96 · n=2406.01−5.98 · n=2396.12−5.98 · n=2385.98−5.57 · n=2375.84−5.24 · n=2365.92−4.82 · n=2356.11−4.39 · n=2346.59−4.09 · n=233KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS—7.50−7.43 · n=2417.68−7.57 · n=2407.63−7.47 · n=2397.52−7.27 · n=2387.52−7.05 · n=2377.83−6.76 · n=2367.88−6.37 · n=2358.13−6.14 · n=2348.40−6.19 · n=233KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS—3.19−2.85 · n=2403.31−2.77 · n=2393.63−2.88 · n=2383.95−2.86 · n=2374.71−3.26 · n=2365.32−3.40 · n=2355.57−2.76 · n=2345.96−2.57 · n=2336.48−2.91 · n=232KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA—4.73−4.59 · n=2414.86−4.48 · n=2404.86−4.33 · n=2395.15−4.27 · n=2385.48−4.25 · n=2375.89−4.19 · n=2365.99−3.70 · n=2356.14−3.38 · n=2346.81−3.56 · n=233KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN—6.03−6.02 · n=2416.54−6.48 · n=2406.86−6.80 · n=2397.27−6.97 · n=2387.88−7.14 · n=2378.49−7.20 · n=2369.51−7.32 · n=23510.56−7.84 · n=23411.13−8.36 · n=233KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW—6.78−6.73 · n=2417.03−6.96 · n=2407.01−6.92 · n=2397.01−6.74 · n=2387.16−6.51 · n=2377.41−6.35 · n=2367.68−6.00 · n=2358.01−5.75 · n=2348.47−5.86 · n=233KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR—4.78−4.75 · n=2414.77−4.72 · n=2404.96−4.85 · n=2395.09−4.84 · n=2385.56−4.77 · n=2375.87−4.75 · n=2365.99−4.18 · n=2356.10−3.93 · n=2346.87−4.17 · n=233KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH—6.86−6.83 · n=2416.97−6.92 · n=2406.99−6.90 · n=2396.94−6.74 · n=2387.00−6.61 · n=2376.94−6.35 · n=2366.90−5.93 · n=2356.97−5.64 · n=2347.21−5.42 · n=233KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS—4.17−4.13 · n=2414.20−4.09 · n=2404.20−4.08 · n=2394.44−4.15 · n=2384.66−4.19 · n=2375.07−4.34 · n=2365.60−4.49 · n=2356.09−4.73 · n=2346.51−4.83 · n=233KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX—4.79−4.74 · n=2415.15−5.09 · n=2405.48−5.43 · n=2395.81−5.73 · n=2386.05−5.99 · n=2376.33−6.29 · n=2366.61−6.57 · n=2356.94−6.80 · n=2347.18−6.99 · n=233KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA—4.30−4.27 · n=2414.42−4.36 · n=2404.42−4.32 · n=2394.49−4.34 · n=2384.50−4.28 · n=2374.51−4.12 · n=2364.51−3.81 · n=2354.43−3.55 · n=2344.44−3.37 · n=233KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP—5.27−5.21 · n=2415.31−5.16 · n=2405.44−5.13 · n=2395.89−5.42 · n=2386.11−5.09 · n=2376.45−4.82 · n=2367.01−4.33 · n=2357.63−4.19 · n=2348.21−4.03 · n=233KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY—5.78−5.75 · n=2415.91−5.86 · n=2406.01−5.91 · n=2396.18−6.07 · n=2386.21−6.00 · n=2376.23−5.69 · n=2366.06−5.32 · n=2356.02−4.95 · n=2346.19−4.58 · n=233KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC—3.22−3.10 · n=2413.32−3.11 · n=2403.57−3.25 · n=2393.80−3.29 · n=2384.35−3.28 · n=2374.78−3.32 · n=2365.07−2.81 · n=2355.21−2.57 · n=2345.99−2.80 · n=233KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC—6.60−6.39 · n=2416.86−6.68 · n=2407.13−6.77 · n=2397.41−6.81 · n=2387.62−6.91 · n=2378.39−6.87 · n=2368.57−6.58 · n=2359.04−6.46 · n=2349.53−6.67 · n=233KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD—4.37−4.23 · n=2414.54−4.36 · n=2404.71−4.31 · n=2395.00−4.47 · n=2385.24−4.41 · n=2375.61−4.02 · n=2366.16−3.59 · n=2356.57−3.59 · n=2347.04−3.66 · n=233KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL—4.19−4.02 · n=2414.15−3.95 · n=2404.39−3.92 · n=2394.61−3.84 · n=2384.95−3.85 · n=2375.31−3.76 · n=2365.50−3.20 · n=2355.60−2.94 · n=2346.37−3.11 · n=233KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX—4.82−4.78 · n=2414.77−4.69 · n=2404.89−4.71 · n=2395.08−4.80 · n=2385.32−4.96 · n=2375.49−4.90 · n=2365.88−4.99 · n=2356.39−5.27 · n=2346.81−5.46 · n=233KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN—6.30−6.30 · n=2416.67−6.67 · n=2406.98−6.98 · n=2397.30−7.29 · n=2387.49−7.46 · n=2377.64−7.63 · n=2367.85−7.82 · n=2358.03−7.99 · n=2348.17−8.14 · n=233KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT—6.79−6.70 · n=2416.93−6.87 · n=2406.89−6.79 · n=2396.78−6.64 · n=2386.76−6.42 · n=2376.86−6.10 · n=2366.97−5.74 · n=2357.13−5.59 · n=2347.57−5.64 · n=233KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA—3.24−2.97 · n=2413.24−2.86 · n=2403.38−2.82 · n=2393.46−2.77 · n=2383.85−2.55 · n=2374.28−2.32 · n=2364.43−2.14 · n=2354.70−2.07 · n=2344.76−1.79 · n=233KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO—6.38−6.31 · n=2416.61−6.53 · n=2406.86−6.76 · n=2396.93−6.81 · n=2387.05−6.92 · n=2377.21−7.02 · n=2367.51−7.31 · n=2357.72−7.51 · n=2347.90−7.59 · n=233KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN—2.27−1.65 · n=2412.41−1.63 · n=2402.78−1.66 · n=2393.09−1.56 · n=2383.65−1.46 · n=2374.21−1.33 · n=2364.70−0.70 · n=2355.04−0.41 · n=2345.98−0.60 · n=233KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—1.79−0.67 · n=2401.80−0.69 · n=2391.90−0.60 · n=2392.05−0.56 · n=2372.38−0.28 · n=2362.98+0.29 · n=2353.45+0.99 · n=2343.92+1.41 · n=2334.44+1.99 · n=232KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS—4.51+4.08 · n=2414.53+4.03 · n=2404.69+4.03 · n=2394.82+4.02 · n=2385.18+4.26 · n=2375.87+4.79 · n=2366.42+5.31 · n=2357.13+6.00 · n=2347.82+6.64 · n=233KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS—1.80−0.02 · n=2401.83+0.16 · n=2392.02+0.36 · n=2382.29+0.51 · n=2372.51+0.81 · n=2362.82+0.95 · n=2353.48+1.58 · n=2344.06+2.03 · n=2334.57+2.21 · n=232KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA—1.78−0.20 · n=2411.91+0.02 · n=2402.14+0.11 · n=2392.40+0.33 · n=2382.94+0.55 · n=2373.52+0.68 · n=2364.21+1.14 · n=2354.76+1.56 · n=2345.25+1.96 · n=233KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN—3.40+2.60 · n=2413.30+2.42 · n=2403.35+2.24 · n=2393.65+2.23 · n=2384.08+2.42 · n=2374.46+2.51 · n=2365.05+2.69 · n=2355.64+2.66 · n=2345.90+2.45 · n=233KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW—1.95+0.70 · n=2412.23+0.56 · n=2402.45+0.57 · n=2392.78+0.59 · n=2383.21+0.80 · n=2373.83+1.21 · n=2364.34+1.59 · n=2355.09+2.28 · n=2345.69+2.71 · n=233KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR—1.97+0.81 · n=2412.15+1.07 · n=2402.30+1.12 · n=2392.71+1.31 · n=2382.95+1.61 · n=2373.36+1.77 · n=2364.06+2.36 · n=2354.85+2.92 · n=2345.40+3.27 · n=233KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH—2.18+1.06 · n=2412.30+0.85 · n=2402.42+0.79 · n=2392.63+0.70 · n=2383.04+0.95 · n=2373.58+1.51 · n=2364.12+2.12 · n=2354.80+2.79 · n=2345.50+3.44 · n=233KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS—2.86−1.18 · n=2412.97−1.10 · n=2403.09−1.07 · n=2393.12−1.01 · n=2383.21−1.01 · n=2373.28−1.07 · n=2363.49−1.07 · n=2353.77−1.21 · n=2344.10−1.35 · n=233KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX—1.55+0.17 · n=2411.71−0.14 · n=2401.86−0.44 · n=2392.00−0.65 · n=2382.21−0.78 · n=2372.28−0.89 · n=2362.34−0.95 · n=2352.54−0.97 · n=2342.63−1.08 · n=233KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA—1.90+1.38 · n=2411.91+1.32 · n=2401.87+1.28 · n=2392.01+1.31 · n=2382.22+1.33 · n=2372.52+1.49 · n=2362.77+1.72 · n=2353.02+1.92 · n=2343.18+2.21 · n=233KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP—2.18−0.21 · n=2412.44−0.13 · n=2402.78−0.07 · n=2393.00−0.07 · n=2383.17+0.15 · n=2373.74+0.48 · n=2364.70+0.96 · n=2355.40+1.26 · n=2345.99+1.56 · n=233KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY—2.99+2.66 · n=2412.95+2.54 · n=2402.94+2.42 · n=2393.00+2.37 · n=2383.13+2.40 · n=2373.71+2.92 · n=2364.26+3.47 · n=2354.73+3.96 · n=2345.33+4.53 · n=233KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC—2.34+0.30 · n=2412.39+0.54 · n=2402.49+0.61 · n=2392.82+0.81 · n=2383.03+1.10 · n=2373.44+1.23 · n=2364.07+1.77 · n=2354.70+2.33 · n=2345.35+2.66 · n=233KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC—4.15+3.88 · n=2414.26+3.90 · n=2404.42+3.94 · n=2394.55+3.83 · n=2384.89+4.13 · n=2375.29+4.41 · n=2366.10+4.79 · n=2356.75+5.38 · n=2347.19+5.58 · n=233KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD—2.14+1.11 · n=2412.34+1.14 · n=2402.58+1.16 · n=2392.97+1.37 · n=2383.37+1.48 · n=2373.94+2.16 · n=2364.73+2.66 · n=2355.52+3.11 · n=2346.10+3.28 · n=233KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL—1.95−0.29 · n=2411.98−0.02 · n=2402.12+0.09 · n=2392.41+0.27 · n=2382.79+0.63 · n=2373.15+0.80 · n=2363.74+1.34 · n=2354.57+1.86 · n=2345.08+2.21 · n=233KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX—2.69−2.03 · n=2412.75−2.03 · n=2402.82−2.04 · n=2393.00−2.14 · n=2383.34−2.34 · n=2373.53−2.43 · n=2363.63−2.43 · n=2353.89−2.45 · n=2344.15−2.52 · n=233KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN—2.64+1.43 · n=2412.69+1.20 · n=2402.71+0.96 · n=2392.77+0.79 · n=2382.89+0.72 · n=2372.87+0.68 · n=2362.95+0.68 · n=2353.04+0.72 · n=2343.09+0.67 · n=233KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT—2.18+0.60 · n=2412.31+0.51 · n=2402.52+0.40 · n=2392.82+0.45 · n=2383.18+0.62 · n=2373.76+1.13 · n=2364.37+1.64 · n=2354.97+2.35 · n=2345.63+3.02 · n=233KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA—1.44+0.22 · n=2411.47+0.25 · n=2401.59+0.29 · n=2391.73+0.52 · n=2382.02+0.78 · n=2372.38+1.12 · n=2362.77+1.26 · n=2353.11+1.37 · n=2343.27+1.50 · n=233KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO—1.72+0.50 · n=2411.82+0.27 · n=2401.86+0.12 · n=2392.00+0.03 · n=2382.15+0.07 · n=2372.28+0.17 · n=2362.44+0.20 · n=2352.61+0.24 · n=2342.62+0.27 · n=233KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN—3.46+3.24 · n=2413.75+3.53 · n=2403.87+3.58 · n=2394.15+3.77 · n=2384.66+4.17 · n=2374.93+4.31 · n=2365.57+4.90 · n=2356.42+5.40 · n=2346.99+5.78 · n=233KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · AURO · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.