Aurora (IFS init) (aurora_ifs)
source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.
Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 6.57-6.57 · n=2 | 7.61-7.61 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 8.13-8.13 · n=2 | 7.25-7.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 3.24-3.24 · n=2 | 5.19-5.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 7.36-7.36 · n=2 | 7.78-7.78 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 5.59-5.59 · n=2 | 3.76-3.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 6.72-6.72 · n=2 | 6.20-6.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 4.07-4.07 · n=2 | 1.92-1.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 6.49-6.49 · n=2 | 6.68-6.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 3.83-3.83 · n=2 | 3.42-3.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 5.89-5.89 · n=2 | 6.03-6.03 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 7.01-7.01 · n=2 | 6.81-6.81 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 7.61-7.61 · n=2 | 8.47-8.47 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 7.03-7.03 · n=2 | 3.89-3.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 1.03-1.03 · n=2 | 0.47+0.47 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 7.96-7.96 · n=2 | 8.44-8.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 1.79-1.79 · n=2 | 1.83-1.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 5.17-5.17 · n=2 | 5.26-5.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 7.75-7.75 · n=2 | 9.19-9.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 5.13-5.13 · n=2 | 3.64-3.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 6.57-6.57 · n=2 | 5.48-5.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 4.04-4.04 · n=2 | 2.22-2.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 8.56-8.56 · n=2 | 8.34-8.34 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 1.65-1.65 · n=2 | 1.04-1.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 1.73-1.73 · n=2 | 1.20-1.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 4.99+4.99 · n=2 | 4.35+4.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 3.19-3.19 · n=2 | 5.79-5.79 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 2.66-2.66 · n=2 | 3.45-3.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 3.99+3.99 · n=2 | 2.28+2.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 0.45+0.27 · n=2 | 0.01-0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 0.53+0.53 · n=2 | 0.38+0.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 0.43+0.43 · n=2 | 0.68+0.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 5.87-5.87 · n=2 | 7.08-7.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 1.41-1.41 · n=2 | 2.65-2.65 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 3.13+1.28 · n=2 | 1.56-1.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 1.02-0.77 · n=2 | 1.74-1.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 2.57-0.96 · n=2 | 3.73-3.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 0.77-0.59 · n=2 | 0.90-0.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 5.17+5.17 · n=2 | 3.97+3.97 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 0.99+0.99 · n=2 | 0.39+0.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 1.54-1.54 · n=2 | 0.56-0.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 2.65-2.65 · n=2 | 4.39-4.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 1.16-1.05 · n=2 | 2.65-2.65 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 1.61-0.69 · n=2 | 2.59-2.59 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 1.00-0.08 · n=2 | 1.00-1.00 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 0.84-0.58 · n=2 | 1.51-1.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 3.52+3.52 · n=2 | 4.25+4.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where it comes from
aiwp · AURO · IFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences