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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 2

KIAH · aurora_ifs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC6.59 [6.59, 6.59]0.00-6.59 [-6.59, -6.59]6.59 [6.59, 6.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.59—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC6.59 [6.59, 6.59]0.00-6.59 [-6.59, -6.59]6.59 [6.59, 6.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.59—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC6.59 [6.59, 6.59]0.00-6.59 [-6.59, -6.59]6.59 [6.59, 6.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.59—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC6.59 [6.59, 6.59]0.00-6.59 [-6.59, -6.59]6.59 [6.59, 6.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.59—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC6.84 [6.84, 6.84]0.00-6.84 [-6.84, -6.84]6.84 [6.84, 6.84]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.84—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC6.84 [6.84, 6.84]0.00-6.84 [-6.84, -6.84]6.84 [6.84, 6.84]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.84—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC6.84 [6.84, 6.84]0.00-6.84 [-6.84, -6.84]6.84 [6.84, 6.84]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.84—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC6.84 [6.84, 6.84]0.00-6.84 [-6.84, -6.84]6.84 [6.84, 6.84]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.84—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC6.68 [6.68, 6.68]0.00-6.68 [-6.68, -6.68]6.68 [6.68, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC6.68 [6.68, 6.68]0.00-6.68 [-6.68, -6.68]6.68 [6.68, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC6.68 [6.68, 6.68]0.00-6.68 [-6.68, -6.68]6.68 [6.68, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall1 1 QC6.68 [6.68, 6.68]0.00-6.68 [-6.68, -6.68]6.68 [6.68, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.68—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d1 1 QC6.93 [6.93, 6.93]0.00-6.93 [-6.93, -6.93]6.93 [6.93, 6.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d1 1 QC6.93 [6.93, 6.93]0.00-6.93 [-6.93, -6.93]6.93 [6.93, 6.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d1 1 QC6.93 [6.93, 6.93]0.00-6.93 [-6.93, -6.93]6.93 [6.93, 6.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall1 1 QC6.93 [6.93, 6.93]0.00-6.93 [-6.93, -6.93]6.93 [6.93, 6.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-5.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.78 [0.78, 0.78]0.00+0.78 [0.78, 0.78]0.78 [0.78, 0.78]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.74—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.78 [0.78, 0.78]0.00+0.78 [0.78, 0.78]0.78 [0.78, 0.78]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.74—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.78 [0.78, 0.78]0.00+0.78 [0.78, 0.78]0.78 [0.78, 0.78]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.74—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.78 [0.78, 0.78]0.00+0.78 [0.78, 0.78]0.78 [0.78, 0.78]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.74—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC0.62 [0.62, 0.62]0.00+0.62 [0.62, 0.62]0.62 [0.62, 0.62]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.79—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC0.62 [0.62, 0.62]0.00+0.62 [0.62, 0.62]0.62 [0.62, 0.62]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.79—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC0.62 [0.62, 0.62]0.00+0.62 [0.62, 0.62]0.62 [0.62, 0.62]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.79—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC0.62 [0.62, 0.62]0.00+0.62 [0.62, 0.62]0.62 [0.62, 0.62]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.79—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.68 [0.68, 0.68]0.00+0.68 [0.68, 0.68]0.68 [0.68, 0.68]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.77—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.68 [0.68, 0.68]0.00+0.68 [0.68, 0.68]0.68 [0.68, 0.68]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.77—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.68 [0.68, 0.68]0.00+0.68 [0.68, 0.68]0.68 [0.68, 0.68]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.77—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.68 [0.68, 0.68]0.00+0.68 [0.68, 0.68]0.68 [0.68, 0.68]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.77—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d1 1 QC0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.00+0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.55 [0.55, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.82—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d1 1 QC0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.00+0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.55 [0.55, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.82—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d1 1 QC0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.00+0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.55 [0.55, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.82—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall1 1 QC0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.00+0.55 [0.55, 0.55]0.55 [0.55, 0.55]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.82—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KIAH, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-30: -6.59 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-6.59

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KIAH, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 6.59 · P90 |e| 6.59 °F-100+10 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0816.59 -6.59

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 +4.74 [4.74, 4.74] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +3.52 [3.52, 3.52] yes
NCEP GFS 1 +6.49 [6.49, 6.49] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 -0.08 [-0.08, -0.08] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 +4.01 [4.01, 4.01] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +2.70 [2.70, 2.70] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 +5.59 [5.59, 5.59] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH aurora_ifs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model aurora_ifs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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