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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.85 [3.23, 4.32]1.16-3.85 [-4.32, -3.23]4.15 [3.39, 4.75]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-1.29+0.322026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.85 [2.93, 4.43]1.16-3.85 [-4.43, -2.93]4.15 [3.09, 4.85]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-1.29+0.322026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.85 [2.95, 4.46]1.16-3.85 [-4.46, -2.95]4.15 [3.13, 4.88]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-1.29+0.322026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.85 [2.83, 4.40]1.16-3.85 [-4.40, -2.83]4.15 [2.91, 4.83]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-1.29+0.322026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.44 [3.76, 4.95]1.18-4.44 [-4.95, -3.76]4.69 [3.92, 5.22]0% [0%, 0%]0%18%-1.64+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.44 [3.43, 4.92]1.18-4.44 [-4.92, -3.43]4.69 [3.61, 5.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%18%-1.64+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.44 [3.44, 4.97]1.18-4.44 [-4.97, -3.44]4.69 [3.57, 5.24]0% [0%, 0%]0%18%-1.64+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC4.44 [3.38, 4.95]1.18-4.44 [-4.95, -3.38]4.69 [3.43, 5.27]0% [0%, 0%]0%18%-1.64+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.91 [4.06, 5.97]1.96-4.91 [-5.97, -4.06]5.53 [4.39, 6.73]5% [0%, 16%]5%23%-1.70-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.91 [3.92, 6.00]1.96-4.91 [-6.00, -3.92]5.53 [4.25, 6.88]5% [0%, 20%]5%23%-1.70-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.91 [3.86, 6.15]1.96-4.91 [-6.15, -3.86]5.53 [4.00, 6.89]5% [0%, 17%]5%23%-1.70-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.91 [3.83, 5.96]1.96-4.91 [-5.96, -3.83]5.53 [3.97, 6.81]5% [0%, 19%]5%23%-1.70-0.072026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC5.51 [4.65, 6.42]1.92-5.51 [-6.42, -4.65]6.06 [5.02, 7.13]5% [0%, 16%]5%14%-2.03-0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC5.51 [4.53, 6.43]1.92-5.51 [-6.43, -4.53]6.06 [4.86, 7.19]5% [0%, 20%]5%14%-2.03-0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC5.51 [4.48, 6.56]1.92-5.51 [-6.56, -4.48]6.06 [4.64, 7.22]5% [0%, 17%]5%14%-2.03-0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC5.51 [4.44, 6.39]1.92-5.51 [-6.39, -4.44]6.06 [4.56, 7.15]5% [0%, 19%]5%14%-2.03-0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.70 [1.17, 2.30]1.52+0.98 [0.22, 1.93]2.21 [1.46, 2.86]27% [6%, 47%]73%91%+0.41+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.70 [1.09, 2.42]1.52+0.98 [0.22, 2.19]2.21 [1.33, 2.97]27% [0%, 47%]73%91%+0.41+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.70 [1.04, 2.44]1.52+0.98 [0.09, 2.08]2.21 [1.25, 2.97]27% [0%, 50%]73%91%+0.41+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.70 [1.01, 2.41]1.52+0.98 [0.08, 2.09]2.21 [1.18, 2.97]27% [0%, 52%]73%91%+0.41+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC1.60 [1.15, 2.12]1.53+0.53 [-0.30, 1.57]2.13 [1.36, 2.79]41% [28%, 55%]73%91%+0.45+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC1.60 [1.05, 2.27]1.53+0.53 [-0.31, 1.89]2.13 [1.25, 2.90]41% [23%, 60%]73%91%+0.45+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC1.60 [1.04, 2.27]1.53+0.53 [-0.44, 1.77]2.13 [1.24, 2.88]41% [23%, 62%]73%91%+0.45+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC1.60 [1.02, 2.27]1.53+0.53 [-0.46, 1.76]2.13 [1.20, 2.88]41% [25%, 62%]73%91%+0.45+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.62 [1.18, 2.15]1.43+0.88 [0.18, 1.72]1.98 [1.38, 2.51]32% [16%, 48%]68%86%+0.45+0.512026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.62 [1.06, 2.31]1.43+0.88 [0.20, 1.96]1.98 [1.23, 2.59]32% [12%, 52%]68%86%+0.45+0.512026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.62 [0.97, 2.30]1.43+0.88 [0.05, 1.87]1.98 [1.13, 2.60]32% [10%, 56%]68%86%+0.45+0.512026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.62 [0.95, 2.28]1.43+0.88 [-0.00, 1.87]1.98 [1.12, 2.61]32% [10%, 56%]68%86%+0.45+0.512026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC1.51 [1.11, 2.02]1.48+0.47 [-0.34, 1.44]1.86 [1.41, 2.32]41% [20%, 56%]64%86%+0.49+0.502026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC1.51 [1.02, 2.10]1.48+0.47 [-0.32, 1.70]1.86 [1.34, 2.41]41% [14%, 60%]64%86%+0.49+0.502026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC1.51 [0.94, 2.15]1.48+0.47 [-0.50, 1.62]1.86 [1.24, 2.40]41% [12%, 62%]64%86%+0.49+0.502026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC1.51 [0.93, 2.14]1.48+0.47 [-0.51, 1.63]1.86 [1.23, 2.42]41% [12%, 62%]64%86%+0.49+0.502026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -1.61 °F2026-08-08: -3.3 °F2026-08-09: -2.96 °F2026-08-11: -2.22 °F2026-08-13: -5.61 °F2026-08-14: -1.95 °F2026-08-15: -4.95 °F2026-08-16: -5.93 °F2026-08-17: -4.32 °F2026-08-18: -3.63 °F2026-08-19: -2.89 °F2026-08-20: -3.62 °F2026-08-21: -3.75 °F2026-08-22: -3.92 °F2026-08-23: -2.78 °F2026-08-24: -3.99 °F2026-08-25: -4.09 °F2026-08-26: -4.01 °F2026-08-27: -2.16 °F2026-08-28: -7.98 °F2026-08-29: -6.47 °F2026-08-30: -2.58 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.58
2026-08-29-6.47
2026-08-28-7.98
2026-08-27-2.16
2026-08-26-4.01
2026-08-25-4.09
2026-08-24-3.99
2026-08-23-2.78
2026-08-22-3.92
2026-08-21-3.75
2026-08-20-3.62
2026-08-19-2.89
2026-08-18-3.63
2026-08-17-4.32
2026-08-16-5.93
2026-08-15-4.95
2026-08-14-1.95
2026-08-13-5.61
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-2.22
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-2.96
2026-08-08-3.30
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-1.61

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.69 · P90 |e| 5.9 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.85 -3.85

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.04 [-0.71, 0.85] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -4.01 [-4.01, -4.01] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -0.49 [-0.49, -0.49] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +2.12 [1.06, 3.19] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -2.96 [-3.85, -2.25] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -1.31 [-1.31, -1.31] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +2.17 [0.77, 2.81] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence