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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 2

KIAH · aifs_single · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.64 [2.87, 4.27]1.21-3.64 [-4.27, -2.87]3.94 [3.21, 4.53]4% [0%, 10%]14%36%-0.85+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.64 [2.67, 4.36]1.21-3.64 [-4.36, -2.67]3.94 [3.06, 4.62]4% [0%, 11%]14%36%-0.85+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.64 [2.72, 4.38]1.21-3.64 [-4.38, -2.72]3.94 [3.09, 4.64]4% [0%, 11%]14%36%-0.85+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.64 [2.69, 4.34]1.21-3.64 [-4.34, -2.69]3.94 [3.02, 4.60]4% [0%, 11%]14%36%-0.85+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC3.94 [3.19, 4.56]1.18-3.94 [-4.56, -3.19]4.21 [3.51, 4.81]4% [0%, 10%]7%25%-1.00+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC3.94 [3.02, 4.65]1.18-3.94 [-4.65, -3.02]4.21 [3.33, 4.88]4% [0%, 11%]7%25%-1.00+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC3.94 [3.04, 4.67]1.18-3.94 [-4.67, -3.04]4.21 [3.35, 4.91]4% [0%, 11%]7%25%-1.00+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC3.94 [3.03, 4.62]1.18-3.94 [-4.62, -3.03]4.21 [3.31, 4.89]4% [0%, 11%]7%25%-1.00+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.81 [3.06, 4.44]1.19-3.81 [-4.44, -3.06]4.07 [3.35, 4.61]4% [0%, 10%]11%29%-0.94+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.81 [2.93, 4.53]1.19-3.81 [-4.53, -2.93]4.07 [3.21, 4.70]4% [0%, 11%]11%29%-0.94+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.81 [2.89, 4.55]1.19-3.81 [-4.55, -2.89]4.07 [3.19, 4.69]4% [0%, 11%]11%29%-0.94+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.81 [2.89, 4.51]1.19-3.81 [-4.51, -2.89]4.07 [3.18, 4.69]4% [0%, 11%]11%29%-0.94+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 1 QC4.12 [3.37, 4.76]1.20-4.12 [-4.76, -3.37]4.37 [3.64, 4.92]4% [0%, 10%]7%21%-1.10+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 1 QC4.12 [3.22, 4.85]1.20-4.12 [-4.85, -3.22]4.37 [3.50, 5.01]4% [0%, 11%]7%21%-1.10+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC4.12 [3.18, 4.88]1.20-4.12 [-4.88, -3.18]4.37 [3.42, 5.00]4% [0%, 11%]7%21%-1.10+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC4.12 [3.19, 4.84]1.20-4.12 [-4.84, -3.19]4.37 [3.45, 4.99]4% [0%, 11%]7%21%-1.10+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.58 [1.07, 2.04]1.58-0.25 [-1.34, 0.64]1.92 [1.48, 2.25]32% [7%, 61%]64%86%+0.40+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.58 [1.05, 2.09]1.58-0.25 [-1.38, 0.84]1.92 [1.41, 2.29]32% [0%, 65%]64%86%+0.40+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.58 [1.03, 2.11]1.58-0.25 [-1.48, 0.94]1.92 [1.39, 2.31]32% [0%, 64%]64%86%+0.40+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.58 [1.02, 2.11]1.58-0.25 [-1.53, 0.85]1.92 [1.35, 2.31]32% [0%, 65%]64%86%+0.40+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC1.62 [1.05, 2.14]1.61-0.44 [-1.56, 0.48]1.98 [1.48, 2.37]36% [11%, 63%]61%86%+0.39+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC1.62 [1.03, 2.22]1.61-0.44 [-1.61, 0.70]1.98 [1.43, 2.42]36% [5%, 67%]61%86%+0.39+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC1.62 [1.01, 2.24]1.61-0.44 [-1.69, 0.81]1.98 [1.40, 2.46]36% [0%, 67%]61%86%+0.39+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC1.62 [1.02, 2.24]1.61-0.44 [-1.76, 0.68]1.98 [1.40, 2.46]36% [5%, 65%]61%86%+0.39+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.57 [1.12, 2.00]1.53-0.41 [-1.42, 0.49]1.92 [1.54, 2.24]36% [14%, 58%]68%82%+0.41+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.57 [1.11, 2.04]1.53-0.41 [-1.45, 0.69]1.92 [1.51, 2.26]36% [14%, 60%]68%82%+0.41+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.57 [1.08, 2.04]1.53-0.41 [-1.59, 0.77]1.92 [1.48, 2.30]36% [12%, 59%]68%82%+0.41+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.57 [1.06, 2.07]1.53-0.41 [-1.63, 0.66]1.92 [1.48, 2.30]36% [13%, 59%]68%82%+0.41+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 1 QC1.63 [1.15, 2.09]1.55-0.58 [-1.63, 0.33]2.00 [1.56, 2.36]39% [17%, 66%]64%86%+0.38+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 1 QC1.63 [1.14, 2.15]1.55-0.58 [-1.67, 0.53]2.00 [1.56, 2.39]39% [15%, 70%]64%86%+0.38+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC1.63 [1.11, 2.17]1.55-0.58 [-1.77, 0.66]2.00 [1.53, 2.45]39% [14%, 71%]64%86%+0.38+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC1.63 [1.09, 2.18]1.55-0.58 [-1.84, 0.52]2.00 [1.52, 2.46]39% [14%, 69%]64%86%+0.38+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -4.27 °F2026-08-04: -5.38 °F2026-08-05: -2.69 °F2026-08-06: -2.59 °F2026-08-07: -4.03 °F2026-08-08: -2.5 °F2026-08-09: -1.84 °F2026-08-10: -0.04 °F2026-08-11: -1.4 °F2026-08-12: -3.15 °F2026-08-13: -3.72 °F2026-08-14: -2.34 °F2026-08-15: -3.87 °F2026-08-16: -4.88 °F2026-08-17: -4.73 °F2026-08-18: -4.66 °F2026-08-19: -3.02 °F2026-08-20: -3.49 °F2026-08-21: -4.06 °F2026-08-22: -5.42 °F2026-08-23: -3.54 °F2026-08-24: -5.13 °F2026-08-25: -4.3 °F2026-08-26: -2.81 °F2026-08-27: -6.21 °F2026-08-28: -7.17 °F2026-08-29: -2.69 °F2026-08-30: -1.85 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.85
2026-08-29-2.69
2026-08-28-7.17
2026-08-27-6.21
2026-08-26-2.81
2026-08-25-4.30
2026-08-24-5.13
2026-08-23-3.54
2026-08-22-5.42
2026-08-21-4.06
2026-08-20-3.49
2026-08-19-3.02
2026-08-18-4.66
2026-08-17-4.73
2026-08-16-4.88
2026-08-15-3.87
2026-08-14-2.34
2026-08-13-3.72
2026-08-12-3.15
2026-08-11-1.40
2026-08-10-0.04
2026-08-09-1.84
2026-08-08-2.50
2026-08-07-4.03
2026-08-06-2.59
2026-08-05-2.69
2026-08-04-5.38
2026-08-03-4.27

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.63 · P90 |e| 5.39 °F-100+10 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.007
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08283.64 -3.64

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -4.74 [-4.74, -4.74] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -1.23 [-1.23, -1.23] yes
NCEP GFS 28 +1.90 [0.78, 2.91] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -2.84 [-3.16, -2.63] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -0.04 [-0.85, 0.71] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -2.04 [-2.04, -2.04] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 +1.67 [0.17, 2.92] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH aifs_single lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model aifs_single, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence