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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Diego Lindbergh · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 2

KSAN · aurora_ifs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC3.85 [3.85, 3.85]0.00-3.85 [-3.85, -3.85]3.85 [3.85, 3.85]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.04—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC3.85 [3.85, 3.85]0.00-3.85 [-3.85, -3.85]3.85 [3.85, 3.85]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.04—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC3.85 [3.85, 3.85]0.00-3.85 [-3.85, -3.85]3.85 [3.85, 3.85]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.04—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC3.85 [3.85, 3.85]0.00-3.85 [-3.85, -3.85]3.85 [3.85, 3.85]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.04—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC5.76 [5.76, 5.76]0.00-5.76 [-5.76, -5.76]5.76 [5.76, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.44—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC5.76 [5.76, 5.76]0.00-5.76 [-5.76, -5.76]5.76 [5.76, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.44—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC5.76 [5.76, 5.76]0.00-5.76 [-5.76, -5.76]5.76 [5.76, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.44—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC5.76 [5.76, 5.76]0.00-5.76 [-5.76, -5.76]5.76 [5.76, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.44—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC3.64 [3.64, 3.64]0.00-3.64 [-3.64, -3.64]3.64 [3.64, 3.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.09—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC3.64 [3.64, 3.64]0.00-3.64 [-3.64, -3.64]3.64 [3.64, 3.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.09—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC3.64 [3.64, 3.64]0.00-3.64 [-3.64, -3.64]3.64 [3.64, 3.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.09—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall1 1 QC3.64 [3.64, 3.64]0.00-3.64 [-3.64, -3.64]3.64 [3.64, 3.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.09—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d1 1 QC5.68 [5.68, 5.68]0.00-5.68 [-5.68, -5.68]5.68 [5.68, 5.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.42—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d1 1 QC5.68 [5.68, 5.68]0.00-5.68 [-5.68, -5.68]5.68 [5.68, 5.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.42—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d1 1 QC5.68 [5.68, 5.68]0.00-5.68 [-5.68, -5.68]5.68 [5.68, 5.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.42—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall1 1 QC5.68 [5.68, 5.68]0.00-5.68 [-5.68, -5.68]5.68 [5.68, 5.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.42—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC2.74 [2.74, 2.74]0.00-2.74 [-2.74, -2.74]2.74 [2.74, 2.74]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC2.74 [2.74, 2.74]0.00-2.74 [-2.74, -2.74]2.74 [2.74, 2.74]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC2.74 [2.74, 2.74]0.00-2.74 [-2.74, -2.74]2.74 [2.74, 2.74]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC2.74 [2.74, 2.74]0.00-2.74 [-2.74, -2.74]2.74 [2.74, 2.74]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0.00-2.16 [-2.16, -2.16]2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0.00-2.16 [-2.16, -2.16]2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0.00-2.16 [-2.16, -2.16]2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0.00-2.16 [-2.16, -2.16]2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC2.65 [2.65, 2.65]0.00-2.65 [-2.65, -2.65]2.65 [2.65, 2.65]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC2.65 [2.65, 2.65]0.00-2.65 [-2.65, -2.65]2.65 [2.65, 2.65]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC2.65 [2.65, 2.65]0.00-2.65 [-2.65, -2.65]2.65 [2.65, 2.65]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall1 1 QC2.65 [2.65, 2.65]0.00-2.65 [-2.65, -2.65]2.65 [2.65, 2.65]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d1 1 QC2.08 [2.08, 2.08]0.00-2.08 [-2.08, -2.08]2.08 [2.08, 2.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d1 1 QC2.08 [2.08, 2.08]0.00-2.08 [-2.08, -2.08]2.08 [2.08, 2.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d1 1 QC2.08 [2.08, 2.08]0.00-2.08 [-2.08, -2.08]2.08 [2.08, 2.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall1 1 QC2.08 [2.08, 2.08]0.00-2.08 [-2.08, -2.08]2.08 [2.08, 2.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KSAN, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-30: -3.85 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.85

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KSAN, lead day 2-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 0 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.85 · P90 |e| 3.85 °F-50+5 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.500
-2.50-2.000
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0813.85 -3.85

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 +2.17 [2.17, 2.17] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +3.31 [3.31, 3.31] yes
NCEP GFS 1 +2.08 [2.08, 2.08] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 +0.14 [0.14, 0.14] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 -0.13 [-0.13, -0.13] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -1.00 [-1.00, -1.00] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 -0.15 [-0.15, -0.15] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAN aurora_ifs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAN (San Diego Lindbergh), model aurora_ifs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence