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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Diego Lindbergh · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KSAN · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC5.78 [5.02, 6.34]1.38-5.78 [-6.34, -5.02]6.02 [5.25, 6.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.56+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC5.78 [4.89, 6.33]1.38-5.78 [-6.33, -4.89]6.02 [5.09, 6.53]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.56+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC5.78 [4.89, 6.41]1.38-5.78 [-6.41, -4.89]6.02 [5.06, 6.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.56+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC5.78 [4.56, 6.47]1.38-5.78 [-6.47, -4.56]6.02 [4.83, 6.67]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.56+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC9.33 [7.85, 10.57]1.79-9.33 [-10.57, -7.85]9.60 [8.04, 10.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.13+0.212026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC9.33 [7.64, 10.62]1.79-9.33 [-10.62, -7.64]9.60 [7.78, 10.85]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.13+0.212026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC9.33 [7.62, 10.72]1.79-9.33 [-10.72, -7.62]9.60 [7.76, 10.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.13+0.212026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC9.33 [7.25, 10.73]1.79-9.33 [-10.73, -7.25]9.60 [7.35, 10.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-3.13+0.212026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC5.82 [5.02, 6.45]1.40-5.82 [-6.45, -5.02]6.05 [5.20, 6.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.46+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC5.82 [4.91, 6.43]1.40-5.82 [-6.43, -4.91]6.05 [5.10, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.46+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC5.82 [4.89, 6.54]1.40-5.82 [-6.54, -4.89]6.05 [5.01, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.46+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC5.82 [4.68, 6.63]1.40-5.82 [-6.63, -4.68]6.05 [4.88, 6.80]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.46+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC9.41 [7.78, 10.84]1.94-9.41 [-10.84, -7.78]9.72 [7.93, 11.12]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.98+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC9.41 [7.54, 10.85]1.94-9.41 [-10.85, -7.54]9.72 [7.66, 11.14]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.98+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC9.41 [7.48, 10.99]1.94-9.41 [-10.99, -7.48]9.72 [7.59, 11.25]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.98+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC9.41 [7.17, 10.99]1.94-9.41 [-10.99, -7.17]9.72 [7.26, 11.25]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.98+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.12 [0.87, 1.46]0.89-0.85 [-1.34, -0.48]1.35 [1.12, 1.63]43% [25%, 60%]91%100%-0.36-0.022026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.12 [0.87, 1.52]0.89-0.85 [-1.42, -0.48]1.35 [1.13, 1.68]43% [22%, 60%]91%100%-0.36-0.022026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.12 [0.86, 1.54]0.89-0.85 [-1.44, -0.45]1.35 [1.12, 1.69]43% [22%, 61%]91%100%-0.36-0.022026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.12 [0.88, 1.59]0.89-0.85 [-1.50, -0.44]1.35 [1.14, 1.74]43% [20%, 60%]91%100%-0.36-0.022026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC1.00 [0.84, 1.18]0.92-0.52 [-0.95, -0.18]1.16 [0.99, 1.33]52% [29%, 73%]96%100%-0.21-0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC1.00 [0.85, 1.20]0.92-0.52 [-1.03, -0.20]1.16 [0.99, 1.39]52% [25%, 72%]96%100%-0.21-0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC1.00 [0.81, 1.20]0.92-0.52 [-1.03, -0.18]1.16 [0.95, 1.40]52% [25%, 75%]96%100%-0.21-0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC1.00 [0.83, 1.20]0.92-0.52 [-1.11, -0.19]1.16 [0.97, 1.40]52% [20%, 73%]96%100%-0.21-0.052026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.10 [0.91, 1.39]0.78-0.85 [-1.35, -0.54]1.30 [1.11, 1.56]50% [23%, 67%]91%100%-0.43+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.10 [0.92, 1.52]0.78-0.85 [-1.52, -0.53]1.30 [1.11, 1.64]50% [0%, 68%]91%100%-0.43+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.10 [0.91, 1.54]0.78-0.85 [-1.54, -0.51]1.30 [1.09, 1.63]50% [0%, 69%]91%100%-0.43+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.10 [0.92, 1.54]0.78-0.85 [-1.54, -0.53]1.30 [1.10, 1.67]50% [0%, 67%]91%100%-0.43+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC1.07 [0.80, 1.40]0.83-0.68 [-1.26, -0.18]1.27 [0.93, 1.61]55% [32%, 78%]91%95%-0.38-0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC1.07 [0.77, 1.44]0.83-0.68 [-1.35, -0.18]1.27 [0.81, 1.64]55% [29%, 80%]91%95%-0.38-0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC1.07 [0.76, 1.48]0.83-0.68 [-1.36, -0.11]1.27 [0.82, 1.66]55% [29%, 80%]91%95%-0.38-0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC1.07 [0.77, 1.45]0.83-0.68 [-1.41, -0.15]1.27 [0.83, 1.64]55% [29%, 83%]91%95%-0.38-0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -3.05 °F2026-08-08: -5.46 °F2026-08-09: -6.53 °F2026-08-10: -7.25 °F2026-08-11: -7.33 °F2026-08-13: -5.98 °F2026-08-14: -5.09 °F2026-08-15: -4.06 °F2026-08-16: -3.63 °F2026-08-17: -5.01 °F2026-08-18: -5.87 °F2026-08-19: -5.03 °F2026-08-20: -6.92 °F2026-08-21: -7.38 °F2026-08-22: -5.62 °F2026-08-23: -8.39 °F2026-08-24: -3.98 °F2026-08-25: -6.35 °F2026-08-26: -9.8 °F2026-08-27: -3.77 °F2026-08-28: -4.91 °F2026-08-29: -7.65 °F2026-08-30: -3.98 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.98
2026-08-29-7.65
2026-08-28-4.91
2026-08-27-3.77
2026-08-26-9.80
2026-08-25-6.35
2026-08-24-3.98
2026-08-23-8.39
2026-08-22-5.62
2026-08-21-7.38
2026-08-20-6.92
2026-08-19-5.03
2026-08-18-5.87
2026-08-17-5.01
2026-08-16-3.63
2026-08-15-4.06
2026-08-14-5.09
2026-08-13-5.98
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-7.33
2026-08-10-7.25
2026-08-09-6.53
2026-08-08-5.46
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-3.05

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAN, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 4 days-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 7 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.62 · P90 |e| 7.59 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.004
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.007
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08235.78 -5.78

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +2.30 [1.53, 2.83] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +0.13 [0.13, 0.13] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +3.44 [3.44, 3.44] yes
NCEP GFS 23 +2.85 [2.20, 3.69] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 +0.01 [-0.85, 0.67] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -0.87 [-0.87, -0.87] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 +3.52 [1.81, 4.64] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAN ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAN (San Diego Lindbergh), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAN/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence