Model
Aurora (IFS init)
aurora_ifs
source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 3.02−2.70 · n=232 | 3.28−2.89 · n=231 | 3.44−2.99 · n=230 | 3.66−3.11 · n=229 | 3.83−3.02 · n=227 | 4.09−2.76 · n=226 | 4.36−2.25 · n=224 | 4.82−1.74 · n=223 | 5.24−1.46 · n=222 | 5.73−1.17 · n=221 | |
| KAUS | 2.73−0.50 · n=232 | 3.02−0.75 · n=231 | 3.12−0.91 · n=230 | 3.30−0.88 · n=229 | 3.55−0.80 · n=227 | 3.94−0.51 · n=226 | 4.50+0.06 · n=225 | 4.97+0.54 · n=224 | 5.49+0.92 · n=223 | 5.88+1.07 · n=222 | |
| KBOS | 2.51−1.71 · n=222 | 2.59−1.65 · n=221 | 2.70−1.66 · n=220 | 2.91−1.64 · n=218 | 3.28−1.61 · n=216 | 3.60−1.87 · n=216 | 4.05−1.57 · n=214 | 4.50−1.42 · n=212 | 5.01−1.40 · n=211 | 5.53−1.31 · n=211 | |
| KDCA | 2.88−2.34 · n=232 | 3.03−2.41 · n=231 | 3.23−2.38 · n=230 | 3.44−2.30 · n=229 | 3.83−2.39 · n=227 | 4.37−2.42 · n=226 | 4.86−2.05 · n=224 | 5.13−1.74 · n=223 | 5.55−1.56 · n=222 | 6.15−1.36 · n=221 | |
| KDEN | 2.64−0.63 · n=232 | 2.94−1.19 · n=231 | 3.33−1.52 · n=230 | 3.73−1.71 · n=229 | 4.44−1.82 · n=227 | 5.30−1.75 · n=225 | 6.11−1.84 · n=224 | 6.95−1.85 · n=223 | 7.75−2.38 · n=223 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.08−1.34 · n=230 | 2.54−1.81 · n=229 | 2.88−2.00 · n=228 | 3.10−2.02 · n=226 | 3.50−2.01 · n=225 | 4.04−1.73 · n=223 | 4.63−1.34 · n=222 | 5.26−0.97 · n=221 | 5.91−0.66 · n=221 | 6.32−0.62 · n=219 | |
| KEWR | 2.75−2.34 · n=231 | 2.95−2.46 · n=230 | 3.07−2.42 · n=229 | 3.27−2.41 · n=228 | 3.61−2.40 · n=226 | 3.99−2.38 · n=225 | 4.51−2.00 · n=223 | 4.92−1.75 · n=222 | 5.37−1.64 · n=221 | 5.84−1.47 · n=220 | |
| KIAH | 2.35−1.48 · n=233 | 2.68−1.86 · n=232 | 2.88−2.04 · n=231 | 3.08−2.13 · n=230 | 3.35−2.15 · n=228 | 3.63−1.92 · n=227 | 4.03−1.41 · n=225 | 4.47−0.83 · n=224 | 4.83−0.43 · n=223 | 5.10−0.16 · n=222 | |
| KLAS | 2.79−2.38 · n=232 | 2.92−2.38 · n=231 | 3.09−2.50 · n=231 | 3.25−2.55 · n=230 | 3.47−2.58 · n=228 | 3.82−2.75 · n=226 | 4.24−2.94 · n=225 | 4.73−3.19 · n=224 | 5.21−3.33 · n=223 | — | |
| KLAX | 1.94−1.24 · n=233 | 2.20−1.52 · n=232 | 2.46−1.87 · n=231 | 2.79−2.21 · n=230 | 3.02−2.44 · n=228 | 3.29−2.70 · n=226 | 3.48−2.87 · n=225 | 3.71−2.99 · n=224 | 3.93−3.15 · n=223 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.80−1.09 · n=232 | 1.90−1.20 · n=230 | 2.04−1.26 · n=229 | 2.14−1.28 · n=228 | 2.31−1.33 · n=226 | 2.54−1.25 · n=225 | 2.76−1.07 · n=223 | 2.91−0.79 · n=223 | 3.05−0.53 · n=221 | 3.16−0.30 · n=220 | |
| KMSP | 2.70−2.20 · n=233 | 3.02−2.44 · n=232 | 3.28−2.43 · n=231 | 3.69−2.51 · n=230 | 4.14−2.65 · n=228 | 4.58−2.27 · n=227 | 4.98−1.81 · n=226 | 5.91−1.41 · n=225 | 6.49−1.13 · n=224 | 7.27−1.07 · n=223 | |
| KMSY | 2.16−0.72 · n=233 | 2.34−0.96 · n=232 | 2.49−1.12 · n=231 | 2.62−1.30 · n=230 | 2.91−1.46 · n=228 | 3.20−1.29 · n=227 | 3.58−0.83 · n=225 | 3.90−0.31 · n=224 | 4.36+0.15 · n=223 | 4.69+0.45 · n=222 | |
| KNYC | 2.33−1.50 · n=231 | 2.53−1.59 · n=230 | 2.69−1.54 · n=229 | 2.90−1.54 · n=228 | 3.25−1.56 · n=226 | 3.61−1.61 · n=225 | 4.27−1.30 · n=224 | 4.72−1.06 · n=223 | 5.24−0.98 · n=222 | 5.76−0.81 · n=221 | |
| KOKC | 2.70+0.50 · n=232 | 2.99+0.05 · n=231 | 3.19−0.34 · n=230 | 3.44−0.50 · n=229 | 4.03−0.48 · n=227 | 4.61−0.29 · n=226 | 5.31−0.14 · n=224 | 6.04+0.14 · n=223 | 6.80+0.45 · n=222 | 7.25+0.31 · n=221 | |
| KORD | 2.11−1.29 · n=233 | 2.45−1.49 · n=232 | 2.79−1.63 · n=231 | 3.13−1.63 · n=230 | 3.60−1.77 · n=228 | 4.27−1.61 · n=227 | 4.98−1.05 · n=225 | 5.69−0.91 · n=224 | 6.25−0.71 · n=223 | 6.66−0.74 · n=222 | |
| KPHL | 3.09−2.65 · n=233 | 3.11−2.56 · n=232 | 3.19−2.50 · n=231 | 3.46−2.44 · n=230 | 3.76−2.41 · n=228 | 4.11−2.42 · n=227 | 4.53−2.00 · n=225 | 4.88−1.68 · n=224 | 5.33−1.55 · n=223 | 5.80−1.35 · n=222 | |
| KPHX | 3.14−2.75 · n=233 | 3.35−2.82 · n=232 | 3.47−2.88 · n=231 | 3.66−3.05 · n=230 | 3.97−3.27 · n=228 | 4.33−3.40 · n=226 | 4.70−3.41 · n=225 | 5.00−3.63 · n=224 | 5.37−3.76 · n=223 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.54−1.70 · n=232 | 2.79−1.98 · n=231 | 3.06−2.31 · n=230 | 3.31−2.61 · n=229 | 3.46−2.76 · n=227 | 3.62−2.89 · n=225 | 3.72−2.97 · n=224 | 3.89−3.06 · n=223 | 3.99−3.13 · n=222 | — | |
| KSAT | 2.30−1.36 · n=233 | 2.65−1.69 · n=232 | 2.84−1.87 · n=231 | 2.96−1.86 · n=230 | 3.24−1.77 · n=228 | 3.57−1.52 · n=227 | 4.06−0.98 · n=226 | 4.43−0.46 · n=225 | 4.84−0.05 · n=224 | 5.20+0.09 · n=223 | |
| KSEA | 2.15−1.28 · n=233 | 2.23−1.25 · n=232 | 2.34−1.28 · n=231 | 2.44−1.18 · n=230 | 2.67−1.12 · n=228 | 3.05−0.79 · n=226 | 3.43−0.64 · n=225 | 3.77−0.54 · n=224 | 3.95−0.42 · n=223 | — | |
| KSFO | 2.43−1.70 · n=233 | 2.63−1.89 · n=232 | 2.79−2.10 · n=231 | 2.89−2.18 · n=230 | 2.96−2.26 · n=228 | 3.19−2.38 · n=226 | 3.36−2.47 · n=225 | 3.51−2.54 · n=224 | 3.63−2.60 · n=223 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.85+0.09 · n=228 | 2.03+0.14 · n=227 | 2.27+0.16 · n=226 | 2.61+0.21 · n=225 | 2.99+0.25 · n=223 | 3.53+0.27 · n=222 | 4.27+0.70 · n=220 | 4.81+0.98 · n=219 | 5.42+1.08 · n=218 | 5.99+1.36 · n=217 |
Up to 4 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.28−1.98 · n=232 | 2.58−2.27 · n=231 | 2.77−2.34 · n=230 | 3.10−2.55 · n=229 | 3.27−2.42 · n=227 | 3.50−2.11 · n=226 | 3.85−1.70 · n=224 | 4.45−1.32 · n=223 | 5.02−1.06 · n=222 | 5.47−0.81 · n=221 | |
| KAUS | 3.09−2.97 · n=232 | 3.66−3.36 · n=231 | 3.91−3.50 · n=230 | 4.00−3.42 · n=229 | 4.08−3.41 · n=227 | 4.56−3.18 · n=226 | 4.91−2.76 · n=225 | 5.12−2.40 · n=224 | 5.45−2.23 · n=223 | 5.82−2.44 · n=222 | |
| KBOS | 1.77−0.46 · n=222 | 2.07−0.53 · n=221 | 2.24−0.59 · n=220 | 2.55−0.60 · n=218 | 3.28−0.68 · n=216 | 3.87−1.16 · n=216 | 4.46−0.81 · n=214 | 5.16−0.82 · n=212 | 5.80−1.01 · n=211 | 6.33−1.16 · n=211 | |
| KDCA | 2.33−1.44 · n=232 | 2.53−1.61 · n=231 | 2.80−1.64 · n=230 | 3.09−1.50 · n=229 | 3.52−1.64 · n=227 | 4.02−1.58 · n=226 | 4.41−1.21 · n=224 | 4.58−0.97 · n=223 | 5.33−0.90 · n=222 | 6.13−0.86 · n=221 | |
| KDEN | 2.08−1.10 · n=232 | 2.58−1.78 · n=231 | 3.02−2.23 · n=230 | 3.43−2.50 · n=229 | 4.33−2.76 · n=227 | 5.44−2.78 · n=225 | 6.51−3.05 · n=224 | 7.54−3.18 · n=223 | 8.62−3.93 · n=223 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.65−2.38 · n=230 | 3.32−3.08 · n=229 | 3.58−3.30 · n=228 | 3.60−3.24 · n=226 | 4.00−3.23 · n=225 | 4.49−3.04 · n=223 | 4.87−2.82 · n=222 | 5.43−2.51 · n=221 | 6.03−2.44 · n=221 | 6.36−2.58 · n=219 | |
| KEWR | 2.50−2.11 · n=231 | 2.81−2.35 · n=230 | 2.97−2.40 · n=229 | 3.33−2.46 · n=228 | 3.68−2.45 · n=226 | 4.13−2.37 · n=225 | 4.62−2.03 · n=223 | 5.04−1.82 · n=222 | 5.64−1.98 · n=221 | 6.18−2.01 · n=220 | |
| KIAH | 2.70−2.33 · n=233 | 3.18−2.88 · n=232 | 3.31−2.92 · n=231 | 3.49−2.95 · n=230 | 3.75−2.98 · n=228 | 3.85−2.88 · n=227 | 4.10−2.41 · n=225 | 4.42−1.92 · n=224 | 4.68−1.75 · n=223 | 5.00−1.65 · n=222 | |
| KLAS | 2.64−2.47 · n=232 | 2.65−2.41 · n=231 | 2.87−2.53 · n=231 | 3.01−2.46 · n=230 | 3.32−2.52 · n=228 | 3.87−2.70 · n=226 | 4.45−2.94 · n=225 | 5.09−3.24 · n=224 | 5.66−3.36 · n=223 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.10−1.41 · n=233 | 2.41−1.71 · n=232 | 2.68−2.13 · n=231 | 3.04−2.51 · n=230 | 3.33−2.72 · n=228 | 3.61−3.09 · n=226 | 3.87−3.31 · n=225 | 4.24−3.50 · n=224 | 4.54−3.73 · n=223 | — | |
| KMIA | 2.17−1.67 · n=232 | 2.39−1.91 · n=230 | 2.61−1.98 · n=229 | 2.71−1.93 · n=228 | 2.90−2.01 · n=226 | 3.11−1.85 · n=225 | 3.25−1.67 · n=223 | 3.36−1.32 · n=223 | 3.41−1.07 · n=221 | 3.50−0.93 · n=220 | |
| KMSP | 2.68−2.33 · n=233 | 3.12−2.63 · n=232 | 3.33−2.65 · n=231 | 3.86−2.75 · n=230 | 4.29−2.99 · n=228 | 4.59−2.43 · n=227 | 5.10−2.03 · n=226 | 6.01−1.60 · n=225 | 6.47−1.46 · n=224 | 7.47−1.52 · n=223 | |
| KMSY | 2.69−2.48 · n=233 | 3.02−2.75 · n=232 | 3.15−2.83 · n=231 | 3.42−3.05 · n=230 | 3.65−3.23 · n=228 | 3.95−3.15 · n=227 | 4.15−2.68 · n=225 | 4.38−2.28 · n=224 | 4.78−1.98 · n=223 | 4.84−1.78 · n=222 | |
| KNYC | 1.78−0.71 · n=231 | 2.12−0.99 · n=230 | 2.40−1.10 · n=229 | 2.62−1.21 · n=228 | 3.07−1.23 · n=226 | 3.49−1.29 · n=225 | 4.20−1.02 · n=224 | 4.63−0.82 · n=223 | 5.35−1.00 · n=222 | 5.92−1.06 · n=221 | |
| KOKC | 2.35−1.40 · n=232 | 2.98−2.05 · n=231 | 3.53−2.63 · n=230 | 3.85−2.79 · n=229 | 4.34−2.78 · n=227 | 5.10−2.78 · n=226 | 5.83−2.88 · n=224 | 6.33−2.72 · n=223 | 7.05−2.65 · n=222 | 7.38−3.09 · n=221 | |
| KORD | 2.17−1.36 · n=233 | 2.63−1.64 · n=232 | 2.93−1.91 · n=231 | 3.19−1.96 · n=230 | 3.90−2.11 · n=228 | 4.48−1.92 · n=227 | 5.05−1.29 · n=225 | 5.70−1.22 · n=224 | 6.16−1.08 · n=223 | 6.61−1.29 · n=222 | |
| KPHL | 2.07−1.32 · n=233 | 2.31−1.38 · n=232 | 2.54−1.43 · n=231 | 2.85−1.41 · n=230 | 3.12−1.41 · n=228 | 3.70−1.41 · n=227 | 4.13−0.97 · n=225 | 4.67−0.71 · n=224 | 5.21−0.72 · n=223 | 5.95−0.78 · n=222 | |
| KPHX | 2.63−2.48 · n=233 | 2.82−2.54 · n=232 | 2.98−2.54 · n=231 | 3.15−2.63 · n=230 | 3.49−2.86 · n=228 | 3.89−2.93 · n=226 | 4.36−2.88 · n=225 | 4.79−3.23 · n=224 | 5.34−3.44 · n=223 | — | |
| KSAN | 3.40−3.37 · n=232 | 3.78−3.77 · n=231 | 4.16−4.13 · n=230 | 4.52−4.48 · n=229 | 4.74−4.64 · n=227 | 4.98−4.86 · n=225 | 5.15−5.02 · n=224 | 5.36−5.17 · n=223 | 5.54−5.34 · n=222 | — | |
| KSAT | 2.86−2.64 · n=233 | 3.32−3.09 · n=232 | 3.57−3.28 · n=231 | 3.60−3.21 · n=230 | 3.80−3.20 · n=228 | 4.11−2.97 · n=227 | 4.34−2.59 · n=226 | 4.59−2.18 · n=225 | 4.90−2.10 · n=224 | 5.28−2.29 · n=223 | |
| KSEA | 2.03−1.44 · n=233 | 2.18−1.36 · n=232 | 2.33−1.37 · n=231 | 2.55−1.40 · n=230 | 2.97−1.29 · n=228 | 3.56−0.96 · n=226 | 4.02−0.94 · n=225 | 4.39−0.78 · n=224 | 4.62−0.56 · n=223 | — | |
| KSFO | 3.42−3.15 · n=233 | 3.65−3.29 · n=232 | 3.86−3.48 · n=231 | 4.03−3.60 · n=230 | 4.16−3.66 · n=228 | 4.55−3.94 · n=226 | 4.85−4.17 · n=225 | 5.02−4.31 · n=224 | 5.28−4.49 · n=223 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.72+1.03 · n=228 | 1.99+0.97 · n=227 | 2.26+0.85 · n=226 | 2.58+0.83 · n=225 | 2.86+0.93 · n=223 | 3.54+1.03 · n=222 | 4.38+1.50 · n=220 | 4.97+1.82 · n=219 | 5.58+1.78 · n=218 | 6.28+1.86 · n=217 |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.10−1.93 · n=232 | 2.27−2.04 · n=231 | 2.37−2.12 · n=230 | 2.51−2.17 · n=229 | 2.58−2.05 · n=227 | 2.98−1.76 · n=226 | 3.34−1.02 · n=224 | 3.81−0.27 · n=223 | 4.18+0.08 · n=222 | 4.76+0.49 · n=221 | |
| KAUS | 3.04+2.05 · n=232 | 3.11+1.94 · n=231 | 3.11+1.78 · n=230 | 3.27+1.79 · n=229 | 3.50+1.73 · n=227 | 4.03+2.19 · n=226 | 4.70+2.88 · n=225 | 5.39+3.52 · n=224 | 6.04+4.16 · n=223 | 6.44+4.72 · n=222 | |
| KBOS | 2.48−2.06 · n=222 | 2.49−1.95 · n=221 | 2.42−1.76 · n=220 | 2.50−1.65 · n=218 | 2.60−1.41 · n=216 | 2.76−1.33 · n=216 | 3.16−0.87 · n=214 | 3.54−0.54 · n=212 | 3.95−0.29 · n=211 | 4.38−0.05 · n=211 | |
| KDCA | 2.36−2.01 · n=232 | 2.43−2.05 · n=231 | 2.62−1.99 · n=230 | 2.72−1.84 · n=229 | 2.98−1.75 · n=227 | 3.60−1.66 · n=226 | 4.19−1.24 · n=224 | 4.66−0.77 · n=223 | 4.99−0.49 · n=222 | 5.51−0.11 · n=221 | |
| KDEN | 2.62−0.18 · n=232 | 2.66−0.67 · n=231 | 2.95−0.92 · n=230 | 3.23−1.11 · n=229 | 3.70−1.00 · n=227 | 4.36−0.85 · n=225 | 4.99−0.67 · n=224 | 5.54−0.54 · n=223 | 6.17−0.84 · n=223 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.37−0.34 · n=230 | 1.60−0.60 · n=229 | 1.88−0.78 · n=228 | 2.20−0.90 · n=226 | 2.61−0.89 · n=225 | 3.24−0.51 · n=223 | 3.91+0.03 · n=222 | 4.53+0.53 · n=221 | 5.31+1.09 · n=221 | 5.62+1.37 · n=219 | |
| KEWR | 1.95−1.49 · n=231 | 2.10−1.50 · n=230 | 2.20−1.37 · n=229 | 2.36−1.32 · n=228 | 2.67−1.15 · n=226 | 3.03−0.99 · n=225 | 3.51−0.43 · n=223 | 4.02−0.05 · n=222 | 4.50+0.28 · n=221 | 4.90+0.64 · n=220 | |
| KIAH | 1.53−0.03 · n=233 | 1.74−0.35 · n=232 | 1.92−0.59 · n=231 | 2.10−0.67 · n=230 | 2.43−0.63 · n=228 | 2.87−0.22 · n=227 | 3.39+0.41 · n=225 | 4.15+1.16 · n=224 | 4.76+1.82 · n=223 | 5.06+2.30 · n=222 | |
| KLAS | 3.32−2.62 · n=232 | 3.54−2.69 · n=231 | 3.69−2.75 · n=231 | 3.75−2.81 · n=230 | 3.71−2.69 · n=228 | 3.80−2.76 · n=226 | 4.02−2.84 · n=225 | 4.24−2.95 · n=224 | 4.58−3.06 · n=223 | — | |
| KLAX | 1.67−1.27 · n=233 | 1.91−1.50 · n=232 | 2.21−1.79 · n=231 | 2.53−2.13 · n=230 | 2.74−2.31 · n=228 | 2.96−2.51 · n=226 | 2.98−2.59 · n=225 | 3.01−2.61 · n=224 | 3.14−2.65 · n=223 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.47−0.45 · n=232 | 1.53−0.41 · n=230 | 1.53−0.47 · n=229 | 1.61−0.53 · n=228 | 1.78−0.54 · n=226 | 2.11−0.48 · n=225 | 2.36−0.30 · n=223 | 2.59−0.05 · n=223 | 2.78+0.25 · n=221 | 2.96+0.56 · n=220 | |
| KMSP | 2.15−1.86 · n=233 | 2.43−2.09 · n=232 | 2.57−2.03 · n=231 | 3.00−2.09 · n=230 | 3.30−2.14 · n=228 | 3.69−1.78 · n=227 | 4.12−1.24 · n=226 | 4.94−0.81 · n=225 | 5.58−0.44 · n=224 | 6.24−0.23 · n=223 | |
| KMSY | 1.94+1.24 · n=233 | 1.94+0.95 · n=232 | 2.01+0.83 · n=231 | 2.03+0.68 · n=230 | 2.17+0.58 · n=228 | 2.49+0.80 · n=227 | 3.02+1.39 · n=225 | 3.53+1.99 · n=224 | 4.13+2.62 · n=223 | 4.65+3.04 · n=222 | |
| KNYC | 2.23−1.41 · n=231 | 2.24−1.30 · n=230 | 2.33−1.09 · n=229 | 2.50−1.00 · n=228 | 2.75−0.91 · n=226 | 3.00−0.78 · n=225 | 3.72−0.33 · n=224 | 4.21+0.07 · n=223 | 4.71+0.33 · n=222 | 5.25+0.68 · n=221 | |
| KOKC | 3.11+2.35 · n=232 | 3.05+2.05 · n=231 | 3.06+1.83 · n=230 | 3.10+1.71 · n=229 | 3.66+1.77 · n=227 | 4.11+2.11 · n=226 | 4.73+2.42 · n=224 | 5.43+2.75 · n=223 | 6.19+3.40 · n=222 | 6.71+3.54 · n=221 | |
| KORD | 1.46−0.76 · n=233 | 1.77−0.90 · n=232 | 2.06−0.95 · n=231 | 2.27−0.92 · n=230 | 2.59−0.77 · n=228 | 3.13−0.51 · n=227 | 3.77+0.16 · n=225 | 4.56+0.56 · n=224 | 5.18+0.92 · n=223 | 5.57+1.23 · n=222 | |
| KPHL | 2.77−2.55 · n=233 | 2.62−2.33 · n=232 | 2.56−2.14 · n=231 | 2.72−2.06 · n=230 | 2.95−1.81 · n=228 | 3.30−1.73 · n=227 | 3.78−1.19 · n=225 | 4.22−0.69 · n=224 | 4.62−0.40 · n=223 | 5.03−0.02 · n=222 | |
| KPHX | 3.84−3.64 · n=233 | 3.96−3.70 · n=232 | 4.08−3.87 · n=231 | 4.23−4.00 · n=230 | 4.45−4.16 · n=228 | 4.72−4.27 · n=226 | 4.87−4.40 · n=225 | 5.05−4.47 · n=224 | 5.32−4.60 · n=223 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.11+0.04 · n=232 | 2.28−0.12 · n=231 | 2.38−0.37 · n=230 | 2.52−0.65 · n=229 | 2.62−0.79 · n=227 | 2.75−0.86 · n=225 | 2.71−0.82 · n=224 | 2.85−0.85 · n=223 | 2.88−0.79 · n=222 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.90−0.53 · n=233 | 2.12−0.73 · n=232 | 2.29−0.90 · n=231 | 2.48−1.01 · n=230 | 2.85−0.92 · n=228 | 3.31−0.66 · n=227 | 3.95−0.02 · n=226 | 4.49+0.68 · n=225 | 5.12+1.41 · n=224 | 5.47+1.94 · n=223 | |
| KSEA | 1.86−1.27 · n=233 | 1.81−1.24 · n=232 | 1.87−1.28 · n=231 | 1.91−1.07 · n=230 | 1.98−0.99 · n=228 | 2.20−0.67 · n=226 | 2.57−0.39 · n=225 | 2.86−0.32 · n=224 | 3.09−0.22 · n=223 | — | |
| KSFO | 1.64−0.59 · n=233 | 1.83−0.87 · n=232 | 1.95−1.06 · n=231 | 2.07−1.15 · n=230 | 2.15−1.21 · n=228 | 2.28−1.17 · n=226 | 2.43−1.10 · n=225 | 2.60−1.10 · n=224 | 2.61−1.07 · n=223 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.46+0.47 · n=228 | 1.71+0.64 · n=227 | 1.94+0.76 · n=226 | 2.32+0.85 · n=225 | 2.65+1.05 · n=223 | 3.17+1.18 · n=222 | 3.91+1.75 · n=220 | 4.69+2.21 · n=219 | 5.25+2.45 · n=218 | 5.84+2.88 · n=217 |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 5.26−5.24 · n=233 | 5.54−5.52 · n=232 | 5.65−5.62 · n=231 | 5.93−5.80 · n=230 | 5.91−5.66 · n=228 | 5.79−5.39 · n=227 | 5.74−4.94 · n=226 | 5.98−4.58 · n=225 | 6.41−4.34 · n=224 | 6.77−4.12 · n=223 | |
| KAUS | 6.71−6.69 · n=233 | 7.22−7.10 · n=232 | 7.38−7.23 · n=231 | 7.33−7.14 · n=230 | 7.31−7.12 · n=228 | 7.70−6.91 · n=227 | 7.78−6.47 · n=226 | 7.88−6.12 · n=225 | 8.11−5.93 · n=224 | 8.51−6.14 · n=223 | |
| KBOS | 2.95−2.64 · n=232 | 3.17−2.71 · n=231 | 3.40−2.82 · n=230 | 3.67−2.80 · n=229 | 4.30−2.86 · n=227 | 5.01−3.33 · n=226 | 5.32−2.97 · n=225 | 5.77−2.81 · n=224 | 6.37−2.98 · n=223 | 6.90−3.23 · n=222 | |
| KDCA | 4.30−4.11 · n=233 | 4.49−4.27 · n=232 | 4.70−4.29 · n=231 | 4.83−4.14 · n=230 | 5.28−4.35 · n=228 | 5.78−4.30 · n=227 | 5.99−3.96 · n=226 | 5.85−3.72 · n=225 | 6.49−3.67 · n=224 | 7.07−3.65 · n=223 | |
| KDEN | 5.38−5.36 · n=233 | 6.11−6.02 · n=232 | 6.58−6.50 · n=231 | 6.82−6.68 · n=230 | 7.42−7.01 · n=228 | 8.05−6.98 · n=227 | 8.97−7.23 · n=226 | 9.95−7.34 · n=225 | 11.13−8.08 · n=224 | — | |
| KDFW | 5.70−5.65 · n=233 | 6.37−6.31 · n=232 | 6.66−6.54 · n=231 | 6.63−6.48 · n=230 | 6.84−6.50 · n=228 | 7.09−6.26 · n=227 | 7.34−6.06 · n=226 | 7.69−5.75 · n=225 | 8.21−5.65 · n=224 | 8.61−5.76 · n=223 | |
| KEWR | 4.41−4.40 · n=233 | 4.68−4.63 · n=232 | 4.75−4.70 · n=231 | 4.90−4.75 · n=230 | 5.23−4.71 · n=228 | 5.59−4.67 · n=227 | 5.84−4.38 · n=226 | 5.93−4.15 · n=225 | 6.57−4.32 · n=224 | 6.97−4.33 · n=223 | |
| KIAH | 6.04−6.01 · n=233 | 6.58−6.54 · n=232 | 6.69−6.61 · n=231 | 6.68−6.56 · n=230 | 6.84−6.60 · n=228 | 6.87−6.49 · n=227 | 6.78−5.98 · n=226 | 6.84−5.51 · n=225 | 6.98−5.32 · n=224 | 7.30−5.23 · n=223 | |
| KLAS | 3.92−3.89 · n=233 | 3.83−3.77 · n=232 | 4.04−3.91 · n=231 | 4.10−3.88 · n=230 | 4.32−3.90 · n=228 | 4.73−4.06 · n=227 | 5.23−4.26 · n=226 | 5.86−4.60 · n=225 | 6.28−4.68 · n=224 | — | |
| KLAX | 4.58−4.51 · n=233 | 4.82−4.76 · n=232 | 5.28−5.23 · n=231 | 5.64−5.57 · n=230 | 5.90−5.84 · n=228 | 6.26−6.22 · n=227 | 6.48−6.42 · n=226 | 6.74−6.62 · n=225 | 7.02−6.86 · n=224 | — | |
| KMIA | 4.01−3.96 · n=233 | 4.27−4.22 · n=232 | 4.39−4.30 · n=231 | 4.43−4.30 · n=230 | 4.53−4.37 · n=228 | 4.56−4.24 · n=227 | 4.55−4.00 · n=226 | 4.46−3.67 · n=225 | 4.39−3.38 · n=224 | 4.53−3.25 · n=223 | |
| KMSP | 4.91−4.85 · n=233 | 5.24−5.14 · n=232 | 5.38−5.13 · n=231 | 5.75−5.25 · n=230 | 6.17−5.50 · n=228 | 6.25−4.95 · n=227 | 6.67−4.56 · n=226 | 7.26−4.14 · n=225 | 7.75−4.00 · n=224 | 8.54−4.10 · n=223 | |
| KMSY | 5.22−5.21 · n=233 | 5.55−5.51 · n=232 | 5.68−5.59 · n=231 | 5.90−5.79 · n=230 | 6.21−6.01 · n=228 | 6.17−5.88 · n=227 | 6.12−5.45 · n=226 | 5.97−5.01 · n=225 | 6.20−4.70 · n=224 | 6.29−4.47 · n=223 | |
| KNYC | 2.89−2.73 · n=233 | 3.15−3.02 · n=232 | 3.36−3.12 · n=231 | 3.61−3.22 · n=230 | 4.04−3.21 · n=228 | 4.45−3.25 · n=227 | 4.83−2.98 · n=226 | 5.06−2.83 · n=225 | 5.69−2.97 · n=224 | 6.21−3.04 · n=223 | |
| KOKC | 5.46−5.20 · n=233 | 6.07−5.85 · n=232 | 6.68−6.39 · n=231 | 7.10−6.58 · n=230 | 7.19−6.58 · n=228 | 7.74−6.55 · n=227 | 8.41−6.67 · n=226 | 8.76−6.44 · n=225 | 9.21−6.36 · n=224 | 9.68−6.72 · n=223 | |
| KORD | 3.86−3.75 · n=233 | 4.22−4.04 · n=232 | 4.56−4.29 · n=231 | 4.76−4.39 · n=230 | 5.19−4.55 · n=228 | 5.49−4.38 · n=227 | 5.91−3.76 · n=226 | 6.51−3.68 · n=225 | 6.72−3.43 · n=224 | 7.29−3.69 · n=223 | |
| KPHL | 3.89−3.73 · n=233 | 4.00−3.79 · n=232 | 4.08−3.81 · n=231 | 4.40−3.83 · n=230 | 4.70−3.83 · n=228 | 5.08−3.79 · n=227 | 5.37−3.43 · n=226 | 5.44−3.18 · n=225 | 6.05−3.23 · n=224 | 6.56−3.28 · n=223 | |
| KPHX | 4.46−4.43 · n=233 | 4.57−4.51 · n=232 | 4.63−4.51 · n=231 | 4.77−4.62 · n=230 | 5.11−4.84 · n=228 | 5.35−4.87 · n=227 | 5.63−4.85 · n=226 | 6.08−5.22 · n=225 | 6.55−5.44 · n=224 | — | |
| KSAN | 6.01−6.01 · n=233 | 6.42−6.42 · n=232 | 6.82−6.82 · n=231 | 7.12−7.12 · n=230 | 7.36−7.34 · n=228 | 7.58−7.56 · n=227 | 7.74−7.72 · n=226 | 7.90−7.87 · n=225 | 8.07−8.05 · n=224 | — | |
| KSAT | 6.00−5.95 · n=233 | 6.53−6.45 · n=232 | 6.64−6.57 · n=231 | 6.62−6.49 · n=230 | 6.66−6.45 · n=228 | 6.82−6.30 · n=227 | 6.85−5.83 · n=226 | 6.98−5.50 · n=225 | 7.22−5.42 · n=224 | 7.66−5.59 · n=223 | |
| KSEA | 3.06−2.87 · n=233 | 3.15−2.78 · n=232 | 3.29−2.82 · n=231 | 3.39−2.82 · n=230 | 3.70−2.75 · n=228 | 4.05−2.41 · n=227 | 4.40−2.36 · n=226 | 4.69−2.26 · n=225 | 4.85−2.04 · n=224 | — | |
| KSFO | 6.19−6.16 · n=233 | 6.44−6.38 · n=232 | 6.65−6.56 · n=231 | 6.77−6.64 · n=230 | 6.86−6.73 · n=228 | 7.15−6.99 · n=227 | 7.41−7.25 · n=226 | 7.57−7.38 · n=225 | 7.78−7.54 · n=224 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.97−1.38 · n=233 | 2.25−1.43 · n=232 | 2.45−1.51 · n=231 | 2.88−1.53 · n=230 | 3.28−1.47 · n=228 | 3.87−1.35 · n=227 | 4.41−0.93 · n=226 | 4.90−0.64 · n=225 | 5.55−0.73 · n=224 | 6.24−0.74 · n=223 |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.53−0.25 · n=232 | 1.65−0.36 · n=231 | 1.82−0.43 · n=230 | 1.96−0.49 · n=230 | 2.10−0.36 · n=227 | 2.67−0.08 · n=226 | 3.19+0.68 · n=225 | 3.79+1.40 · n=224 | 4.16+1.79 · n=223 | 4.75+2.18 · n=222 | |
| KAUS | 4.95+4.56 · n=233 | 4.88+4.48 · n=232 | 4.82+4.32 · n=231 | 4.90+4.26 · n=230 | 5.05+4.19 · n=228 | 5.62+4.63 · n=227 | 6.38+5.27 · n=226 | 7.08+5.92 · n=225 | 7.77+6.57 · n=224 | 8.26+7.12 · n=223 | |
| KBOS | 1.85+0.10 · n=232 | 1.78+0.23 · n=231 | 1.86+0.42 · n=230 | 2.11+0.49 · n=229 | 2.38+0.77 · n=227 | 2.60+0.84 · n=226 | 3.19+1.25 · n=225 | 3.74+1.71 · n=224 | 4.24+1.95 · n=223 | 4.68+2.19 · n=222 | |
| KDCA | 1.74+0.13 · n=233 | 1.75+0.11 · n=232 | 2.00+0.25 · n=231 | 2.18+0.34 · n=230 | 2.60+0.41 · n=228 | 3.17+0.54 · n=227 | 3.95+0.92 · n=226 | 4.47+1.42 · n=225 | 4.91+1.64 · n=224 | 5.54+2.07 · n=223 | |
| KDEN | 3.84+3.25 · n=233 | 3.44+2.75 · n=232 | 3.46+2.55 · n=231 | 3.48+2.42 · n=230 | 3.93+2.53 · n=228 | 4.46+2.70 · n=227 | 4.95+2.82 · n=226 | 5.45+2.97 · n=225 | 6.00+2.66 · n=224 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.08+1.42 · n=233 | 2.18+1.20 · n=232 | 2.37+0.99 · n=231 | 2.49+0.83 · n=230 | 2.86+0.81 · n=228 | 3.51+1.17 · n=227 | 4.24+1.69 · n=226 | 4.86+2.20 · n=225 | 5.61+2.77 · n=224 | 5.94+3.06 · n=223 | |
| KEWR | 2.12+1.06 · n=233 | 2.13+1.12 · n=232 | 2.25+1.29 · n=231 | 2.55+1.32 · n=230 | 2.83+1.47 · n=228 | 3.13+1.70 · n=227 | 3.82+2.10 · n=226 | 4.44+2.61 · n=225 | 5.00+2.90 · n=224 | 5.43+3.24 · n=223 | |
| KIAH | 2.29+1.50 · n=233 | 2.41+1.24 · n=232 | 2.44+1.03 · n=231 | 2.56+0.88 · n=230 | 2.85+0.90 · n=228 | 3.32+1.25 · n=227 | 3.94+1.91 · n=226 | 4.72+2.71 · n=225 | 5.39+3.37 · n=224 | 5.80+3.84 · n=223 | |
| KLAS | 2.67−0.79 · n=233 | 2.91−0.87 · n=232 | 3.06−0.91 · n=231 | 3.12−0.94 · n=230 | 3.13−0.85 · n=228 | 3.24−0.87 · n=227 | 3.39−0.97 · n=226 | 3.60−1.15 · n=225 | 3.91−1.26 · n=224 | — | |
| KLAX | 1.43+0.35 · n=233 | 1.64+0.16 · n=232 | 1.79−0.14 · n=231 | 1.96−0.47 · n=230 | 2.11−0.66 · n=228 | 2.31−0.83 · n=227 | 2.33−0.91 · n=226 | 2.43−0.93 · n=225 | 2.56−0.97 · n=224 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.85+1.45 · n=233 | 2.01+1.55 · n=232 | 1.96+1.48 · n=231 | 1.96+1.39 · n=230 | 2.14+1.42 · n=228 | 2.39+1.46 · n=227 | 2.72+1.66 · n=226 | 2.93+1.88 · n=225 | 3.16+2.16 · n=224 | 3.43+2.50 · n=223 | |
| KMSP | 2.24+0.04 · n=233 | 2.32−0.17 · n=232 | 2.52−0.14 · n=231 | 2.94−0.11 · n=230 | 3.20−0.19 · n=228 | 3.48+0.13 · n=227 | 4.23+0.69 · n=226 | 5.02+1.14 · n=225 | 5.71+1.57 · n=224 | 6.24+1.77 · n=223 | |
| KMSY | 3.38+3.20 · n=233 | 3.18+2.89 · n=232 | 3.15+2.74 · n=231 | 3.06+2.53 · n=230 | 3.09+2.43 · n=228 | 3.41+2.67 · n=227 | 4.01+3.28 · n=226 | 4.70+3.93 · n=225 | 5.33+4.55 · n=224 | 5.70+4.92 · n=223 | |
| KNYC | 2.51+0.42 · n=233 | 2.42+0.59 · n=232 | 2.50+0.78 · n=231 | 2.72+0.88 · n=230 | 2.94+0.99 · n=228 | 3.17+1.17 · n=227 | 3.91+1.51 · n=226 | 4.33+2.00 · n=225 | 4.93+2.32 · n=224 | 5.51+2.68 · n=223 | |
| KOKC | 5.02+4.85 · n=233 | 4.74+4.53 · n=232 | 4.64+4.30 · n=231 | 4.61+4.15 · n=230 | 4.85+4.21 · n=228 | 5.23+4.57 · n=227 | 5.85+4.79 · n=226 | 6.48+5.19 · n=225 | 7.18+5.74 · n=224 | 7.48+5.83 · n=223 | |
| KORD | 2.21+1.42 · n=233 | 2.27+1.35 · n=232 | 2.50+1.28 · n=231 | 2.77+1.34 · n=230 | 3.12+1.44 · n=228 | 3.72+1.71 · n=227 | 4.42+2.37 · n=226 | 5.13+2.77 · n=225 | 5.84+3.13 · n=224 | 6.17+3.47 · n=223 | |
| KPHL | 1.92−0.22 · n=233 | 1.94+0.02 · n=232 | 2.02+0.23 · n=231 | 2.19+0.28 · n=230 | 2.56+0.51 · n=228 | 2.94+0.64 · n=227 | 3.58+1.08 · n=226 | 4.18+1.63 · n=225 | 4.73+1.88 · n=224 | 5.22+2.30 · n=223 | |
| KPHX | 2.39−1.60 · n=233 | 2.50−1.65 · n=232 | 2.62−1.81 · n=231 | 2.82−1.97 · n=230 | 3.11−2.09 · n=228 | 3.35−2.20 · n=227 | 3.57−2.34 · n=226 | 3.73−2.38 · n=225 | 3.98−2.53 · n=224 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.65+1.60 · n=233 | 2.71+1.43 · n=232 | 2.76+1.18 · n=231 | 2.80+0.93 · n=230 | 2.88+0.78 · n=228 | 2.97+0.70 · n=227 | 2.96+0.74 · n=226 | 3.06+0.73 · n=225 | 3.06+0.78 · n=224 | — | |
| KSAT | 2.30+1.06 · n=233 | 2.36+0.86 · n=232 | 2.46+0.73 · n=231 | 2.66+0.61 · n=230 | 3.02+0.61 · n=228 | 3.46+0.90 · n=227 | 4.21+1.48 · n=226 | 4.87+2.23 · n=225 | 5.57+2.95 · n=224 | 5.98+3.52 · n=223 | |
| KSEA | 1.48+0.35 · n=233 | 1.41+0.36 · n=232 | 1.54+0.35 · n=231 | 1.67+0.51 · n=230 | 1.85+0.65 · n=228 | 2.25+0.96 · n=227 | 2.62+1.26 · n=226 | 2.95+1.30 · n=225 | 3.22+1.39 · n=224 | — | |
| KSFO | 1.69+0.72 · n=233 | 1.73+0.45 · n=232 | 1.84+0.29 · n=231 | 1.90+0.18 · n=230 | 2.06+0.14 · n=228 | 2.23+0.18 · n=227 | 2.44+0.25 · n=226 | 2.58+0.25 · n=225 | 2.63+0.28 · n=224 | — | |
| KTTN | 3.72+3.40 · n=233 | 3.75+3.58 · n=232 | 3.96+3.76 · n=231 | 4.08+3.79 · n=230 | 4.44+3.99 · n=228 | 4.78+4.21 · n=227 | 5.29+4.60 · n=226 | 6.04+5.19 · n=225 | 6.48+5.40 · n=224 | 7.05+5.72 · n=223 |
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.
Where it comes from
aiwp · AURO · IFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.