KATL — Atlanta Hartsfield
33.6403, -84.4269 · 313 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIATL
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 4.36-4.36 · n=30 | 4.31-4.31 · n=29 | 4.38-4.37 · n=28 | 4.30-4.30 · n=27 | 4.21-4.21 · n=26 | 4.77-4.77 · n=25 | 4.89-4.68 · n=24 | 4.88-4.80 · n=23 | 5.53-5.53 · n=22 | 5.79-5.79 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 6.59-6.59 · n=2 | 7.11-7.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.69-6.69 · n=3 | 6.26-6.26 · n=2 | 7.52-7.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.67-3.67 · n=2 | 3.43-3.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 4.43-4.43 · n=3 | 2.78-2.78 · n=2 | 4.64-4.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.17+0.15 · n=30 | 2.45-0.88 · n=29 | 3.13-0.78 · n=28 | 2.94+0.15 · n=27 | 3.26-0.72 · n=26 | 4.02-0.60 · n=25 | 4.91-0.67 · n=24 | 2.98-0.54 · n=23 | 3.71-0.27 · n=22 | 4.97-1.54 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.04-5.04 · n=2 | 6.18-6.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 5.67-5.65 · n=34 | 5.85-5.85 · n=33 | 5.86-5.86 · n=32 | 5.93-5.93 · n=31 | 5.52-5.51 · n=31 | 5.31-5.29 · n=31 | 5.99-5.78 · n=30 | 6.35-6.18 · n=29 | 6.29-5.66 · n=28 | 6.92-5.54 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.64-2.38 · n=24 | 2.08-1.53 · n=23 | 2.57-1.55 · n=22 | 3.29-1.14 · n=22 | 4.00-2.08 · n=20 | 3.74-1.91 · n=18 | 3.12-0.12 · n=19 | 3.48-0.29 · n=18 | 2.62-0.28 · n=17 | 3.54-1.11 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.50-2.50 · n=2 | 3.98-3.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 3.28-3.28 · n=3 | 2.86-2.86 · n=2 | 4.71-4.71 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.65-0.04 · n=972 | 6.27-0.08 · n=971 | 6.71-0.12 · n=970 | 7.11-0.16 · n=969 | 7.58-0.20 · n=968 | 7.78-0.25 · n=967 | 7.89-0.29 · n=966 | 8.12-0.33 · n=965 | 8.29-0.37 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.34-0.40 · n=30 | 1.48-0.27 · n=29 | 1.88-0.37 · n=28 | 1.70-0.46 · n=27 | 1.79-0.25 · n=26 | 1.94-0.14 · n=25 | 1.71-0.01 · n=24 | 1.93-0.04 · n=23 | 1.99-0.04 · n=22 | 2.16-0.08 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.27-1.27 · n=2 | 0.51-0.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.87-1.87 · n=3 | 1.67-1.67 · n=2 | 1.31-1.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.40-3.40 · n=2 | 0.09-0.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 3.33-3.33 · n=3 | 0.89-0.89 · n=2 | 0.21+0.21 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.87+1.20 · n=30 | 2.15+1.42 · n=29 | 2.07+1.29 · n=28 | 2.40+1.70 · n=27 | 2.56+1.60 · n=26 | 2.97+2.01 · n=25 | 2.79+1.67 · n=24 | 2.70+1.08 · n=23 | 3.24+1.48 · n=22 | 3.85+0.81 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 1.43-1.43 · n=2 | 0.62-0.62 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.50-0.55 · n=34 | 1.60-0.48 · n=33 | 1.93-0.59 · n=32 | 2.03-0.82 · n=31 | 2.07-0.38 · n=31 | 2.24-0.06 · n=31 | 2.68-0.29 · n=30 | 3.08-0.49 · n=29 | 3.09-0.36 · n=28 | 3.11+0.94 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.28-0.36 · n=24 | 1.93+0.19 · n=23 | 2.05+0.22 · n=22 | 2.55+0.62 · n=22 | 2.44+0.50 · n=20 | 2.24+0.47 · n=18 | 2.31+1.32 · n=19 | 2.74+1.18 · n=18 | 2.53+1.48 · n=17 | 2.66+1.72 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 1.35-1.35 · n=2 | 0.45-0.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.45-1.45 · n=3 | 1.46-1.46 · n=2 | 0.83-0.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.94-0.04 · n=972 | 5.49-0.09 · n=971 | 6.36-0.13 · n=970 | 6.84-0.17 · n=969 | 7.15-0.21 · n=968 | 7.41-0.25 · n=967 | 7.66-0.28 · n=966 | 7.79-0.33 · n=965 | 7.88-0.36 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences