FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) (fourcastnet_gfs)
source aiwp · product FOUR · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.
Scores use the latest model version segment, FOUR_v200, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 2.33-2.33 · n=2 | 4.07-4.07 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 5.11-5.11 · n=2 | 4.80-4.80 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 4.27-2.70 · n=2 | 7.02-7.02 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 2.48-2.48 · n=2 | 3.06-3.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 4.28-4.28 · n=2 | 2.76-2.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 5.51-5.51 · n=2 | 4.36-4.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 1.50-1.50 · n=2 | 3.04-3.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 3.69-3.69 · n=2 | 3.19-3.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 5.66-5.66 · n=2 | 5.11-5.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 3.47-3.47 · n=2 | 2.76-2.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 5.07-5.07 · n=2 | 4.90-4.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 6.68-6.68 · n=2 | 5.65-5.65 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 3.56-3.56 · n=2 | 2.22-2.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 1.54+1.54 · n=2 | 0.54-0.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 7.14-7.14 · n=2 | 6.57-6.57 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 0.81-0.81 · n=2 | 1.13-1.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 2.31-2.31 · n=2 | 5.03-5.03 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 9.95-9.95 · n=2 | 12.20-12.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 2.89-2.89 · n=2 | 0.58-0.58 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 3.62-3.62 · n=2 | 2.87-2.87 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 3.95-3.95 · n=2 | 0.75-0.75 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 2.01-2.01 · n=2 | 0.18-0.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 2.11+0.86 · n=2 | 1.78-1.78 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 1.02-1.02 · n=2 | 0.04+0.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 4.49+4.49 · n=2 | 3.93+3.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 2.18-0.74 · n=2 | 2.00-2.00 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 0.75+0.66 · n=2 | 0.91+0.91 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 2.98+2.98 · n=2 | 1.64+1.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 0.41-0.36 · n=2 | 1.36-1.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 3.13+3.13 · n=2 | 4.67+4.67 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 2.02+2.02 · n=2 | 2.20+2.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 5.69-5.69 · n=2 | 6.48-6.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 1.63+1.63 · n=2 | 1.98+1.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 3.26+3.26 · n=2 | 0.76+0.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 2.16-2.16 · n=2 | 2.49-2.49 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 1.77-0.47 · n=2 | 2.44-2.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 1.81+1.18 · n=2 | 1.50+1.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 2.91+2.91 · n=2 | 0.73+0.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 2.44+2.44 · n=2 | 2.16+2.16 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 3.64+3.64 · n=2 | 6.01+6.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 4.00-4.00 · n=2 | 6.18-6.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 0.76+0.22 · n=2 | 0.57-0.57 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 1.21-0.31 · n=2 | 1.56-1.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 1.79+0.71 · n=2 | 0.32+0.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 1.27-1.27 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 8.43+8.43 · n=2 | 11.68+11.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where it comes from
aiwp · FOUR · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences