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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC4.10 [3.13, 5.28]3.78-1.37 [-3.80, 0.44]4.97 [4.04, 5.95]16% [0%, 27%]32%42%-0.05-0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC4.10 [3.03, 5.61]3.78-1.37 [-4.78, 0.58]4.97 [3.91, 6.41]16% [0%, 29%]32%42%-0.05-0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC4.10 [2.95, 6.02]3.78-1.37 [-4.59, 0.74]4.97 [3.76, 6.36]16% [0%, 29%]32%42%-0.05-0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC4.10 [2.98, 5.60]3.78-1.37 [-4.50, 0.58]4.97 [3.82, 6.21]16% [0%, 29%]32%42%-0.05-0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC4.05 [3.03, 5.24]3.93-1.05 [-3.50, 0.74]4.96 [3.98, 5.92]21% [0%, 39%]32%42%-0.04-0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC4.05 [2.94, 5.50]3.93-1.05 [-4.55, 0.96]4.96 [3.89, 6.25]21% [0%, 40%]32%42%-0.04-0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC4.05 [2.84, 5.92]3.93-1.05 [-4.34, 1.03]4.96 [3.71, 6.32]21% [0%, 43%]32%42%-0.04-0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC4.05 [2.84, 5.49]3.93-1.05 [-4.06, 0.96]4.96 [3.82, 6.12]21% [0%, 43%]32%42%-0.04-0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.61 [2.85, 5.13]2.96-2.38 [-4.61, -0.81]4.35 [3.51, 6.30]16% [0%, 37%]32%42%+0.07-0.012026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.61 [2.73, 6.26]2.96-2.38 [-5.76, -0.72]4.35 [3.39, 7.52]16% [0%, 40%]32%42%+0.07-0.012026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.61 [2.63, 5.60]2.96-2.38 [-5.29, -0.63]4.35 [3.31, 7.30]16% [0%, 40%]32%42%+0.07-0.012026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.61 [2.73, 5.96]2.96-2.38 [-5.44, -0.67]4.35 [3.40, 7.30]16% [0%, 42%]32%42%+0.07-0.012026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC3.65 [3.01, 5.15]3.08-1.88 [-4.21, -0.20]4.32 [3.47, 6.25]5% [0%, 21%]32%42%+0.06-0.052026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC3.65 [2.95, 6.51]3.08-1.88 [-5.46, -0.14]4.32 [3.42, 7.43]5% [0%, 25%]32%42%+0.06-0.052026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC3.65 [2.86, 5.94]3.08-1.88 [-5.01, -0.07]4.32 [3.34, 7.29]5% [0%, 25%]32%42%+0.06-0.052026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC3.65 [2.96, 6.10]3.08-1.88 [-5.05, -0.07]4.32 [3.42, 7.26]5% [0%, 25%]32%42%+0.06-0.052026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.88 [1.98, 3.71]2.39+2.29 [1.21, 3.38]3.80 [2.40, 4.64]26% [8%, 42%]42%63%+0.16+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.88 [1.91, 3.86]2.39+2.29 [1.19, 3.71]3.80 [2.37, 4.76]26% [0%, 41%]42%63%+0.16+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.88 [1.87, 3.84]2.39+2.29 [1.17, 3.54]3.80 [2.35, 4.73]26% [0%, 43%]42%63%+0.16+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.88 [1.87, 3.82]2.39+2.29 [1.17, 3.61]3.80 [2.36, 4.75]26% [0%, 44%]42%63%+0.16+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC2.67 [1.83, 3.32]2.49+1.62 [0.44, 2.70]3.49 [2.25, 4.18]26% [10%, 41%]42%58%+0.22+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC2.67 [1.70, 3.37]2.49+1.62 [0.46, 3.01]3.49 [2.13, 4.26]26% [0%, 41%]42%58%+0.22+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC2.67 [1.73, 3.37]2.49+1.62 [0.49, 2.86]3.49 [2.16, 4.20]26% [0%, 43%]42%58%+0.22+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC2.67 [1.70, 3.35]2.49+1.62 [0.49, 2.91]3.49 [2.15, 4.22]26% [0%, 43%]42%58%+0.22+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.77 [1.79, 3.61]2.38+2.07 [1.03, 3.15]3.61 [2.23, 4.43]26% [5%, 47%]37%68%+0.19+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.77 [1.68, 3.75]2.38+2.07 [0.97, 3.40]3.61 [2.02, 4.63]26% [0%, 47%]37%68%+0.19+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.77 [1.61, 3.75]2.38+2.07 [0.96, 3.38]3.61 [2.02, 4.60]26% [0%, 50%]37%68%+0.19+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.77 [1.70, 3.75]2.38+2.07 [1.00, 3.52]3.61 [2.02, 4.64]26% [0%, 50%]37%68%+0.19+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC2.61 [1.68, 3.34]2.36+1.49 [0.49, 2.59]3.31 [2.00, 4.08]26% [10%, 43%]53%79%+0.24+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC2.61 [1.64, 3.57]2.36+1.49 [0.41, 2.86]3.31 [1.64, 4.26]26% [0%, 42%]53%79%+0.24+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC2.61 [1.57, 3.44]2.36+1.49 [0.34, 2.79]3.31 [1.64, 4.23]26% [0%, 50%]53%79%+0.24+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC2.61 [1.59, 3.46]2.36+1.49 [0.40, 2.96]3.31 [1.64, 4.24]26% [0%, 47%]53%79%+0.24+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -7.92 °F2026-08-13: +0.94 °F2026-08-14: -4.06 °F2026-08-15: -4.31 °F2026-08-16: +7.48 °F2026-08-17: +6.09 °F2026-08-18: -2.69 °F2026-08-19: -6.45 °F2026-08-20: +9.14 °F2026-08-21: +0.15 °F2026-08-22: -1.43 °F2026-08-23: -5.85 °F2026-08-24: +0.01 °F2026-08-25: -3.73 °F2026-08-26: -5.88 °F2026-08-27: -1.25 °F2026-08-28: -7.35 °F2026-08-29: +2.11 °F2026-08-30: -1.08 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.08
2026-08-29+2.11
2026-08-28-7.35
2026-08-27-1.25
2026-08-26-5.88
2026-08-25-3.73
2026-08-24+0.01
2026-08-23-5.85
2026-08-22-1.43
2026-08-21+0.15
2026-08-20+9.14
2026-08-19-6.45
2026-08-18-2.69
2026-08-17+6.09
2026-08-16+7.48
2026-08-15-4.31
2026-08-14-4.06
2026-08-13+0.94
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-7.92

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 1 daydashed: P50 |e| 4.06 · P90 |e| 7.57 °F-100+10 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.001

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08194.10 -1.37

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 +0.65 [-0.31, 2.04] no
NCEP GFS 19 +1.05 [-0.01, 3.02] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 +0.08 [-1.35, 1.67] no
Persistence (baseline) 19 +0.21 [-1.42, 1.47] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence