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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 6

KEWR · aifs_single · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.16 [2.52, 3.69]1.89-3.01 [-3.50, -2.45]3.76 [3.12, 4.30]25% [14%, 44%]33%50%+0.22+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.16 [2.45, 3.72]1.89-3.01 [-3.51, -2.41]3.76 [3.04, 4.33]25% [14%, 50%]33%50%+0.22+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.16 [2.40, 3.75]1.89-3.01 [-3.52, -2.35]3.76 [2.97, 4.36]25% [14%, 50%]33%50%+0.22+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.16 [2.43, 3.75]1.89-3.01 [-3.51, -2.36]3.76 [2.98, 4.35]25% [14%, 50%]33%50%+0.22+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC3.23 [2.54, 3.79]1.89-3.07 [-3.60, -2.46]3.83 [3.16, 4.41]25% [14%, 44%]33%50%+0.20+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC3.23 [2.46, 3.83]1.89-3.07 [-3.62, -2.39]3.83 [3.06, 4.43]25% [14%, 50%]33%50%+0.20+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC3.23 [2.40, 3.88]1.89-3.07 [-3.65, -2.36]3.83 [3.00, 4.46]25% [14%, 50%]33%50%+0.20+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC3.23 [2.42, 3.86]1.89-3.07 [-3.65, -2.34]3.83 [3.01, 4.45]25% [14%, 50%]33%50%+0.20+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.47 [2.91, 4.06]2.18-3.12 [-3.72, -2.40]4.24 [3.37, 5.08]17% [0%, 32%]25%50%+0.14+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.47 [2.86, 4.08]2.18-3.12 [-3.78, -2.31]4.24 [3.24, 5.14]17% [0%, 32%]25%50%+0.14+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.47 [2.81, 4.10]2.18-3.12 [-3.77, -2.16]4.24 [3.19, 5.27]17% [0%, 33%]25%50%+0.14+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.47 [2.84, 4.10]2.18-3.12 [-3.69, -2.26]4.24 [3.22, 5.13]17% [0%, 32%]25%50%+0.14+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.54 [2.97, 4.14]2.20-3.18 [-3.80, -2.45]4.34 [3.42, 5.25]17% [0%, 32%]25%42%+0.12+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.54 [2.93, 4.22]2.20-3.18 [-3.81, -2.34]4.34 [3.27, 5.31]17% [0%, 32%]25%42%+0.12+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.54 [2.88, 4.23]2.20-3.18 [-3.82, -2.18]4.34 [3.25, 5.49]17% [0%, 33%]25%42%+0.12+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC3.54 [2.91, 4.25]2.20-3.18 [-3.76, -2.29]4.34 [3.24, 5.33]17% [0%, 32%]25%42%+0.12+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.76 [1.99, 3.48]2.64+1.50 [0.40, 2.84]3.50 [2.59, 4.19]29% [11%, 42%]46%58%+0.20+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.76 [1.92, 3.73]2.64+1.50 [0.30, 3.27]3.50 [2.46, 4.30]29% [0%, 43%]46%58%+0.20+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.76 [1.83, 3.68]2.64+1.50 [0.27, 3.10]3.50 [2.30, 4.31]29% [0%, 43%]46%58%+0.20+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.76 [1.84, 3.63]2.64+1.50 [0.17, 3.06]3.50 [2.37, 4.26]29% [0%, 43%]46%58%+0.20+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.77 [2.19, 3.29]2.78+0.54 [-0.63, 1.94]3.33 [2.66, 3.84]12% [0%, 27%]38%62%+0.20+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.77 [2.16, 3.37]2.78+0.54 [-0.73, 2.43]3.33 [2.57, 3.90]12% [0%, 29%]38%62%+0.20+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.77 [2.08, 3.36]2.78+0.54 [-0.78, 2.22]3.33 [2.51, 3.92]12% [0%, 29%]38%62%+0.20+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC2.77 [2.14, 3.34]2.78+0.54 [-0.83, 2.21]3.33 [2.55, 3.89]12% [0%, 29%]38%62%+0.20+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.80 [2.28, 3.37]2.50+1.43 [0.26, 2.84]3.43 [2.61, 4.21]17% [6%, 27%]38%67%+0.19+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.80 [2.25, 3.48]2.50+1.43 [0.19, 3.27]3.43 [2.57, 4.28]17% [0%, 27%]38%67%+0.19+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.80 [2.25, 3.47]2.50+1.43 [0.15, 3.10]3.43 [2.55, 4.35]17% [0%, 29%]38%67%+0.19+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.80 [2.22, 3.55]2.50+1.43 [0.06, 3.13]3.43 [2.52, 4.34]17% [0%, 27%]38%67%+0.19+0.242026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.69 [2.27, 3.11]2.61+0.49 [-0.76, 1.94]3.27 [2.65, 3.88]21% [9%, 33%]42%62%+0.22+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.69 [2.22, 3.17]2.61+0.49 [-0.82, 2.43]3.27 [2.61, 3.93]21% [7%, 33%]42%62%+0.22+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.69 [2.24, 3.21]2.61+0.49 [-0.86, 2.28]3.27 [2.59, 4.03]21% [6%, 33%]42%62%+0.22+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.69 [2.24, 3.19]2.61+0.49 [-0.96, 2.38]3.27 [2.62, 3.97]21% [7%, 33%]42%62%+0.22+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -5.88 °F2026-08-08: -0.9 °F2026-08-09: -1.98 °F2026-08-10: +0.08 °F2026-08-11: -2.19 °F2026-08-12: -5.03 °F2026-08-13: -3.14 °F2026-08-14: -2.55 °F2026-08-15: -3.39 °F2026-08-16: -2.34 °F2026-08-17: +0.72 °F2026-08-18: -5.59 °F2026-08-19: -6.45 °F2026-08-20: -2.15 °F2026-08-21: -6.96 °F2026-08-22: +0.94 °F2026-08-23: -1.36 °F2026-08-24: -5.29 °F2026-08-25: -3.08 °F2026-08-26: -3.27 °F2026-08-27: -4.92 °F2026-08-28: -5.78 °F2026-08-29: -0.92 °F2026-08-30: -0.85 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.85
2026-08-29-0.92
2026-08-28-5.78
2026-08-27-4.92
2026-08-26-3.27
2026-08-25-3.08
2026-08-24-5.29
2026-08-23-1.36
2026-08-22+0.94
2026-08-21-6.96
2026-08-20-2.15
2026-08-19-6.45
2026-08-18-5.59
2026-08-17+0.72
2026-08-16-2.34
2026-08-15-3.39
2026-08-14-2.55
2026-08-13-3.14
2026-08-12-5.03
2026-08-11-2.19
2026-08-10+0.08
2026-08-09-1.98
2026-08-08-0.90
2026-08-07-5.88

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 5 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.82 · P90 |e| 5.85 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.005
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08243.16 -3.01

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 24 +0.04 [-0.92, 1.01] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -1.22 [-2.79, 0.04] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 -0.65 [-2.04, 0.31] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 -0.88 [-2.66, 0.49] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR aifs_single lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model aifs_single, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence