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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC3.01 [2.27, 3.63]1.37-2.66 [-3.60, -0.90]3.39 [2.34, 4.12]0% [0%, 0%]25%50%-0.27+0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC3.01 [2.04, 3.64]1.37-2.66 [-3.62, -0.59]3.39 [2.04, 4.13]0% [0%, 0%]25%50%-0.27+0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC3.01 [2.04, 3.71]1.37-2.66 [-3.71, -0.61]3.39 [2.04, 4.22]0% [0%, 0%]25%50%-0.27+0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 1 QC3.01 [2.04, 3.72]1.37-2.66 [-3.72, -0.45]3.39 [2.04, 4.22]0% [0%, 0%]25%50%-0.27+0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 1 QC2.58 [1.86, 3.20]1.41-2.18 [-3.15, -0.43]3.07 [2.02, 3.83]12% [0%, 21%]38%81%-0.09+0.252026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 1 QC2.58 [1.49, 3.19]1.41-2.18 [-3.16, -0.14]3.07 [1.49, 3.83]12% [0%, 22%]38%81%-0.09+0.252026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 1 QC2.58 [1.49, 3.27]1.41-2.18 [-3.27, -0.15]3.07 [1.49, 3.90]12% [0%, 21%]38%81%-0.09+0.252026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 1 QC2.58 [1.49, 3.27]1.41-2.18 [-3.27, 0.01]3.07 [1.49, 3.90]12% [0%, 21%]38%81%-0.09+0.252026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC2.92 [2.37, 3.43]1.72-2.51 [-3.42, -0.97]3.44 [2.76, 4.02]7% [0%, 20%]40%60%-0.18+0.142026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC2.92 [2.36, 3.45]1.72-2.51 [-3.42, -0.68]3.44 [2.76, 4.03]7% [0%, 25%]40%60%-0.18+0.142026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC2.92 [2.33, 3.49]1.72-2.51 [-3.49, -0.68]3.44 [2.74, 4.11]7% [0%, 25%]40%60%-0.18+0.142026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 1 QC2.92 [2.33, 3.49]1.72-2.51 [-3.49, -0.60]3.44 [2.75, 4.10]7% [0%, 24%]40%60%-0.18+0.142026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 1 QC2.53 [2.07, 3.04]1.73-1.97 [-2.88, -0.35]3.13 [2.52, 3.71]20% [0%, 43%]53%67%-0.02+0.132026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 1 QC2.53 [2.05, 3.02]1.73-1.97 [-2.93, -0.07]3.13 [2.05, 3.70]20% [0%, 45%]53%67%-0.02+0.132026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 1 QC2.53 [2.05, 3.06]1.73-1.97 [-3.00, -0.18]3.13 [2.05, 3.76]20% [0%, 46%]53%67%-0.02+0.132026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 1 QC2.53 [2.05, 3.06]1.73-1.97 [-2.97, 0.04]3.13 [2.05, 3.78]20% [0%, 46%]53%67%-0.02+0.132026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC2.68 [1.68, 3.62]2.13+1.78 [-1.16, 3.40]3.33 [1.78, 4.54]12% [0%, 22%]44%81%-0.34-0.262026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC2.68 [1.20, 3.75]2.13+1.78 [-1.16, 3.64]3.33 [1.20, 4.62]12% [0%, 22%]44%81%-0.34-0.262026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC2.68 [1.25, 3.72]2.13+1.78 [-1.49, 3.55]3.33 [1.26, 4.58]12% [0%, 22%]44%81%-0.34-0.262026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 1 QC2.68 [1.25, 3.69]2.13+1.78 [-1.50, 3.61]3.33 [1.26, 4.58]12% [0%, 24%]44%81%-0.34-0.262026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 1 QC2.94 [1.33, 4.02]2.14+2.36 [-0.54, 3.94]3.65 [1.48, 4.89]12% [0%, 46%]50%62%-0.47-0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 1 QC2.94 [0.77, 4.19]2.14+2.36 [-0.63, 4.17]3.65 [0.82, 5.03]12% [0%, 83%]50%62%-0.47-0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 1 QC2.94 [0.88, 4.11]2.14+2.36 [-0.90, 4.07]3.65 [0.96, 4.95]12% [0%, 69%]50%62%-0.47-0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 1 QC2.94 [0.88, 4.14]2.14+2.36 [-0.90, 4.07]3.65 [0.95, 5.00]12% [0%, 75%]50%62%-0.47-0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC2.77 [0.90, 3.77]2.04+2.47 [-0.06, 3.74]3.56 [1.06, 4.44]27% [0%, 83%]53%67%-0.34-0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC2.77 [0.70, 3.89]2.04+2.47 [-0.70, 3.89]3.56 [0.70, 4.52]27% [0%, 100%]53%67%-0.34-0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC2.77 [0.70, 3.88]2.04+2.47 [-0.70, 3.86]3.56 [0.70, 4.51]27% [0%, 100%]53%67%-0.34-0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 1 QC2.77 [0.70, 3.85]2.04+2.47 [-0.70, 3.79]3.56 [0.70, 4.51]27% [0%, 100%]53%67%-0.34-0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 1 QC3.11 [0.70, 4.32]2.06+3.06 [0.53, 4.31]3.99 [1.15, 4.94]27% [0%, 83%]33%60%-0.50-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 1 QC3.11 [0.11, 4.43]2.06+3.06 [-0.11, 4.43]3.99 [0.11, 5.04]27% [0%, 100%]33%60%-0.50-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 1 QC3.11 [0.11, 4.43]2.06+3.06 [-0.11, 4.43]3.99 [0.11, 5.03]27% [0%, 100%]33%60%-0.50-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 1 QC3.11 [0.11, 4.39]2.06+3.06 [-0.11, 4.39]3.99 [0.11, 5.02]27% [0%, 100%]33%60%-0.50-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-10: -2.04 °F2026-08-16: -1.93 °F2026-08-17: -3.49 °F2026-08-18: -3.25 °F2026-08-19: -1.29 °F2026-08-20: -3.13 °F2026-08-21: -8 °F2026-08-22: -3.09 °F2026-08-23: -4.76 °F2026-08-24: -2.49 °F2026-08-25: -3.26 °F2026-08-26: -1.59 °F2026-08-27: -3.32 °F2026-08-28: -1.51 °F2026-08-29: -2.23 °F2026-08-30: +2.75 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.75
2026-08-29-2.23
2026-08-28-1.51
2026-08-27-3.32
2026-08-26-1.59
2026-08-25-3.26
2026-08-24-2.49
2026-08-23-4.76
2026-08-22-3.09
2026-08-21-8.00
2026-08-20-3.13
2026-08-19-1.29
2026-08-18-3.25
2026-08-17-3.49
2026-08-16-1.93
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10-2.04

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 9-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.92 · P90 |e| 4.13 °F-100+10 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08163.01 -2.66

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 -0.30 [-1.24, 1.10] no
NCEP GFS 16 +0.39 [-0.85, 1.68] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -3.27 [-3.99, 0.29] no
Persistence (baseline) 16 +0.63 [-0.62, 1.38] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence