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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KLAX · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC2.35 [1.60, 2.84]1.13-2.26 [-2.78, -1.53]2.67 [1.99, 3.07]16% [0%, 45%]40%68%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC2.35 [1.27, 2.98]1.13-2.26 [-2.89, -1.26]2.67 [1.66, 3.17]16% [0%, 60%]40%68%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC2.35 [1.24, 3.07]1.13-2.26 [-3.03, -1.21]2.67 [1.64, 3.22]16% [0%, 60%]40%68%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 2 QC2.35 [1.23, 3.00]1.13-2.26 [-2.98, -1.21]2.67 [1.59, 3.20]16% [0%, 57%]40%68%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 2 QC5.53 [5.05, 5.91]0.96-5.53 [-5.91, -5.05]5.68 [5.19, 6.03]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 2 QC5.53 [4.86, 6.06]0.96-5.53 [-6.06, -4.86]5.68 [4.99, 6.15]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 2 QC5.53 [4.84, 6.21]0.96-5.53 [-6.21, -4.84]5.68 [5.00, 6.31]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 2 QC5.53 [4.86, 6.06]0.96-5.53 [-6.06, -4.86]5.68 [4.96, 6.14]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC0.64 [0.45, 0.87]0.51+0.45 [0.07, 0.81]0.76 [0.56, 0.95]76% [56%, 95%]100%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC0.64 [0.45, 0.94]0.51+0.45 [0.08, 0.86]0.76 [0.55, 1.00]76% [53%, 95%]100%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC0.64 [0.45, 0.94]0.51+0.45 [0.07, 0.90]0.76 [0.55, 1.00]76% [50%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 2 QC0.64 [0.43, 0.96]0.51+0.45 [0.03, 0.91]0.76 [0.52, 1.02]76% [50%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 2 QC0.65 [0.41, 0.93]0.52-0.50 [-0.90, -0.16]0.83 [0.52, 1.09]84% [62%, 100%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 2 QC0.65 [0.36, 0.96]0.52-0.50 [-0.91, -0.15]0.83 [0.46, 1.11]84% [58%, 100%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 2 QC0.65 [0.34, 0.95]0.52-0.50 [-0.92, -0.12]0.83 [0.44, 1.11]84% [58%, 100%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 2 QC0.65 [0.35, 0.95]0.52-0.50 [-0.93, -0.11]0.83 [0.44, 1.11]84% [58%, 100%]96%100%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-01: -0.19 °F2026-08-06: -0.84 °F2026-08-08: -0.08 °F2026-08-09: -1.87 °F2026-08-10: -0.25 °F2026-08-11: -2.16 °F2026-08-12: -1.88 °F2026-08-13: -2.63 °F2026-08-14: -4.39 °F2026-08-15: -3.03 °F2026-08-16: -1.56 °F2026-08-17: -2.77 °F2026-08-18: -4.75 °F2026-08-19: -3.07 °F2026-08-20: +1.08 °F2026-08-21: -2.61 °F2026-08-22: -1.34 °F2026-08-23: -2.59 °F2026-08-24: -1.59 °F2026-08-25: -2.85 °F2026-08-26: -3.2 °F2026-08-27: -4.29 °F2026-08-28: -2.3 °F2026-08-29: -4.08 °F2026-08-30: -3.24 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.24
2026-08-29-4.08
2026-08-28-2.30
2026-08-27-4.29
2026-08-26-3.20
2026-08-25-2.85
2026-08-24-1.59
2026-08-23-2.59
2026-08-22-1.34
2026-08-21-2.61
2026-08-20+1.08
2026-08-19-3.07
2026-08-18-4.75
2026-08-17-2.77
2026-08-16-1.56
2026-08-15-3.03
2026-08-14-4.39
2026-08-13-2.63
2026-08-12-1.88
2026-08-11-2.16
2026-08-10-0.25
2026-08-09-1.87
2026-08-08-0.08
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-0.84
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-0.19

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 0-5 to -4.5 °F: 1 day-4.5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 5 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 4 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to -0.5 °F: 1 day-0.5 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 1 day1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.59 · P90 |e| 4.2 °F-50+5 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.501
-4.50-4.003
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.004
-3.00-2.505
-2.50-2.002
-2.00-1.504
-1.50-1.001
-1.00-0.501
-0.50+0.003
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.501
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08252.35 -2.26

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 +0.82 [-0.42, 1.42] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -2.24 [-2.69, -1.79] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -1.42 [-1.93, -0.75] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +0.34 [-0.65, 1.33] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 +0.48 [-0.63, 1.06] no
NCEP GFS 25 +0.20 [-0.56, 0.72] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -1.91 [-1.96, -1.85] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -1.14 [-1.72, -0.78] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +1.19 [0.45, 1.93] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +1.08 [0.19, 1.70] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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