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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.95 [3.28, 4.40]1.30-3.95 [-4.40, -3.28]4.35 [3.67, 4.83]11% [0%, 22%]11%17%-0.69+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.95 [2.93, 4.41]1.30-3.95 [-4.41, -2.93]4.35 [3.43, 4.82]11% [0%, 22%]11%17%-0.69+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.95 [2.84, 4.42]1.30-3.95 [-4.42, -2.84]4.35 [3.31, 4.82]11% [0%, 23%]11%17%-0.69+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.95 [2.93, 4.38]1.30-3.95 [-4.38, -2.93]4.35 [3.32, 4.82]11% [0%, 22%]11%17%-0.69+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC4.56 [4.01, 5.04]1.19-4.56 [-5.04, -4.01]4.85 [4.13, 5.47]0% [0%, 0%]6%11%-0.95+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC4.56 [3.74, 5.03]1.19-4.56 [-5.03, -3.74]4.85 [3.99, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]6%11%-0.95+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC4.56 [3.67, 5.05]1.19-4.56 [-5.05, -3.67]4.85 [3.95, 5.44]0% [0%, 0%]6%11%-0.95+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC4.56 [3.74, 5.03]1.19-4.56 [-5.03, -3.74]4.85 [3.98, 5.40]0% [0%, 0%]6%11%-0.95+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC4.15 [3.24, 5.11]1.46-4.15 [-5.11, -3.24]4.67 [3.61, 5.77]5% [0%, 12%]15%20%-0.60+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC4.15 [3.00, 5.38]1.46-4.15 [-5.38, -3.00]4.67 [3.33, 5.97]5% [0%, 12%]15%20%-0.60+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC4.15 [2.98, 5.33]1.46-4.15 [-5.33, -2.98]4.67 [3.19, 5.91]5% [0%, 13%]15%20%-0.60+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC4.15 [3.12, 5.33]1.46-4.15 [-5.33, -3.12]4.67 [3.44, 5.90]5% [0%, 14%]15%20%-0.60+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC4.72 [3.93, 5.51]1.43-4.72 [-5.51, -3.93]5.13 [4.19, 6.00]0% [0%, 0%]5%15%-0.82+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC4.72 [3.62, 5.66]1.43-4.72 [-5.66, -3.62]5.13 [3.89, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]5%15%-0.82+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC4.72 [3.58, 5.65]1.43-4.72 [-5.65, -3.58]5.13 [3.86, 6.10]0% [0%, 0%]5%15%-0.82+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC4.72 [3.77, 5.62]1.43-4.72 [-5.62, -3.77]5.13 [4.04, 6.01]0% [0%, 0%]5%15%-0.82+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.06 [1.34, 2.93]1.77+1.64 [0.77, 2.70]2.76 [1.73, 3.68]39% [10%, 61%]56%78%+0.30+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.06 [1.31, 3.00]1.77+1.64 [0.75, 2.84]2.76 [1.68, 3.78]39% [0%, 61%]56%78%+0.30+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.06 [1.21, 2.97]1.77+1.64 [0.69, 2.79]2.76 [1.56, 3.76]39% [0%, 64%]56%78%+0.30+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.06 [1.18, 2.91]1.77+1.64 [0.68, 2.71]2.76 [1.46, 3.69]39% [0%, 64%]56%78%+0.30+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC1.83 [1.18, 2.62]1.74+1.16 [0.30, 2.22]2.48 [1.52, 3.34]39% [8%, 62%]61%83%+0.38+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC1.83 [1.17, 2.63]1.74+1.16 [0.29, 2.34]2.48 [1.38, 3.41]39% [0%, 61%]61%83%+0.38+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC1.83 [1.08, 2.63]1.74+1.16 [0.22, 2.31]2.48 [1.38, 3.38]39% [0%, 64%]61%83%+0.38+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC1.83 [1.00, 2.59]1.74+1.16 [0.21, 2.28]2.48 [1.30, 3.35]39% [0%, 65%]61%83%+0.38+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.00 [1.44, 2.62]1.44+1.61 [0.88, 2.39]2.38 [1.72, 2.90]35% [11%, 52%]65%70%+0.32+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.00 [1.44, 2.70]1.44+1.61 [0.90, 2.57]2.38 [1.69, 2.95]35% [0%, 52%]65%70%+0.32+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.00 [1.37, 2.70]1.44+1.61 [0.80, 2.56]2.38 [1.61, 2.95]35% [0%, 54%]65%70%+0.32+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.00 [1.31, 2.70]1.44+1.61 [0.70, 2.56]2.38 [1.46, 2.95]35% [0%, 57%]65%70%+0.32+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC1.77 [1.27, 2.29]1.47+1.10 [0.33, 2.00]2.12 [1.47, 2.62]25% [5%, 44%]70%80%+0.40+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC1.77 [1.24, 2.40]1.47+1.10 [0.29, 2.15]2.12 [1.43, 2.67]25% [0%, 46%]70%80%+0.40+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC1.77 [1.22, 2.40]1.47+1.10 [0.19, 2.05]2.12 [1.32, 2.66]25% [0%, 48%]70%80%+0.40+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC1.77 [1.11, 2.31]1.47+1.10 [0.09, 2.08]2.12 [1.18, 2.66]25% [0%, 47%]70%80%+0.40+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -2.36 °F2026-08-12: -4.95 °F2026-08-13: -3.74 °F2026-08-14: -0.09 °F2026-08-16: -7.63 °F2026-08-17: -4.42 °F2026-08-19: -3.16 °F2026-08-20: -3.88 °F2026-08-21: -4.05 °F2026-08-22: -3.64 °F2026-08-23: -3.24 °F2026-08-24: -5.43 °F2026-08-25: -3.94 °F2026-08-26: -3.75 °F2026-08-27: -0.63 °F2026-08-28: -7.24 °F2026-08-29: -5.57 °F2026-08-30: -3.31 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.31
2026-08-29-5.57
2026-08-28-7.24
2026-08-27-0.63
2026-08-26-3.75
2026-08-25-3.94
2026-08-24-5.43
2026-08-23-3.24
2026-08-22-3.64
2026-08-21-4.05
2026-08-20-3.88
2026-08-19-3.16
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-4.42
2026-08-16-7.63
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-0.09
2026-08-13-3.74
2026-08-12-4.95
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-2.36

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.82 · P90 |e| 6.07 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.95 -3.95

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.58 [-0.43, 1.92] no
NCEP GFS 18 +1.37 [-0.53, 3.15] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -2.56 [-4.20, -0.69] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 +1.61 [1.07, 2.01] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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