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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KIAH · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.28 [2.52, 4.03]1.19-3.28 [-4.03, -2.52]3.61 [2.82, 4.28]8% [0%, 19%]20%44%-0.11+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.28 [2.38, 4.11]1.19-3.28 [-4.11, -2.38]3.61 [2.66, 4.32]8% [0%, 20%]20%44%-0.11+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.28 [2.33, 4.21]1.19-3.28 [-4.21, -2.33]3.61 [2.59, 4.42]8% [0%, 20%]20%44%-0.11+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.28 [2.34, 4.18]1.19-3.28 [-4.18, -2.34]3.61 [2.52, 4.39]8% [0%, 20%]20%44%-0.11+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.60 [2.85, 4.34]1.18-3.60 [-4.34, -2.85]3.90 [3.11, 4.55]8% [0%, 19%]12%32%-0.21+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.60 [2.72, 4.39]1.18-3.60 [-4.39, -2.72]3.90 [2.97, 4.60]8% [0%, 20%]12%32%-0.21+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.60 [2.63, 4.52]1.18-3.60 [-4.52, -2.63]3.90 [2.93, 4.69]8% [0%, 20%]12%32%-0.21+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC3.60 [2.67, 4.48]1.18-3.60 [-4.48, -2.67]3.90 [2.87, 4.67]8% [0%, 20%]12%32%-0.21+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.93 [3.03, 4.64]1.42-3.93 [-4.64, -3.03]4.33 [3.36, 4.99]4% [0%, 12%]17%25%-0.43+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.93 [2.94, 4.69]1.42-3.93 [-4.69, -2.94]4.33 [3.14, 5.04]4% [0%, 12%]17%25%-0.43+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.93 [2.86, 4.81]1.42-3.93 [-4.81, -2.86]4.33 [3.06, 5.10]4% [0%, 13%]17%25%-0.43+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.93 [2.84, 4.82]1.42-3.93 [-4.82, -2.84]4.33 [3.04, 5.11]4% [0%, 12%]17%25%-0.43+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.25 [3.37, 4.94]1.42-4.25 [-4.94, -3.37]4.63 [3.67, 5.31]0% [0%, 0%]8%21%-0.54+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.25 [3.28, 5.00]1.42-4.25 [-5.00, -3.28]4.63 [3.47, 5.35]0% [0%, 0%]8%21%-0.54+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.25 [3.20, 5.13]1.42-4.25 [-5.13, -3.20]4.63 [3.42, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]8%21%-0.54+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC4.25 [3.15, 5.14]1.42-4.25 [-5.14, -3.15]4.63 [3.34, 5.43]0% [0%, 0%]8%21%-0.54+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC1.69 [1.18, 2.10]1.69+0.02 [-1.26, 1.14]2.04 [1.55, 2.35]40% [16%, 67%]64%88%+0.40+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC1.69 [1.07, 2.15]1.69+0.02 [-1.34, 1.32]2.04 [1.39, 2.39]40% [15%, 71%]64%88%+0.40+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC1.69 [1.00, 2.16]1.69+0.02 [-1.54, 1.37]2.04 [1.27, 2.40]40% [14%, 73%]64%88%+0.40+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC1.69 [0.97, 2.15]1.69+0.02 [-1.59, 1.32]2.04 [1.21, 2.38]40% [14%, 71%]64%88%+0.40+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC1.69 [1.12, 2.19]1.70-0.18 [-1.48, 0.97]2.05 [1.52, 2.42]40% [16%, 67%]56%88%+0.40+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC1.69 [1.01, 2.24]1.70-0.18 [-1.54, 1.14]2.05 [1.39, 2.46]40% [15%, 71%]56%88%+0.40+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC1.69 [0.94, 2.24]1.70-0.18 [-1.76, 1.20]2.05 [1.23, 2.45]40% [14%, 73%]56%88%+0.40+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC1.69 [0.95, 2.25]1.70-0.18 [-1.82, 1.14]2.05 [1.20, 2.46]40% [14%, 71%]56%88%+0.40+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.61 [0.88, 2.21]1.57-0.44 [-1.61, 0.67]2.01 [1.36, 2.44]38% [14%, 67%]54%83%+0.42+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.61 [0.76, 2.26]1.57-0.44 [-1.65, 0.85]2.01 [1.25, 2.49]38% [14%, 76%]54%83%+0.42+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.61 [0.72, 2.27]1.57-0.44 [-1.86, 0.86]2.01 [1.17, 2.49]38% [12%, 80%]54%83%+0.42+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.61 [0.69, 2.28]1.57-0.44 [-1.91, 0.84]2.01 [1.10, 2.49]38% [12%, 77%]54%83%+0.42+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.69 [0.93, 2.34]1.57-0.63 [-1.83, 0.49]2.07 [1.35, 2.56]38% [14%, 67%]58%83%+0.39+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.69 [0.79, 2.38]1.57-0.63 [-1.86, 0.68]2.07 [1.23, 2.59]38% [14%, 76%]58%83%+0.39+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.69 [0.76, 2.42]1.57-0.63 [-2.08, 0.69]2.07 [1.15, 2.61]38% [12%, 80%]58%83%+0.39+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.69 [0.74, 2.46]1.57-0.63 [-2.13, 0.68]2.07 [1.08, 2.63]38% [12%, 77%]58%83%+0.39+0.442026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -2.51 °F2026-08-07: -5.11 °F2026-08-08: -3.62 °F2026-08-09: -3.33 °F2026-08-10: -0.33 °F2026-08-11: -2.8 °F2026-08-12: -3.49 °F2026-08-13: -2.81 °F2026-08-14: -0.28 °F2026-08-15: -3.1 °F2026-08-16: -5.18 °F2026-08-17: -4.66 °F2026-08-18: -2.94 °F2026-08-19: -3.08 °F2026-08-20: -4.49 °F2026-08-21: -5.29 °F2026-08-22: -6.2 °F2026-08-23: -2.5 °F2026-08-24: -5.9 °F2026-08-25: -3.68 °F2026-08-26: -3 °F2026-08-27: -2.23 °F2026-08-28: -1.89 °F2026-08-29: -1.64 °F2026-08-30: -1.82 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.82
2026-08-29-1.64
2026-08-28-1.89
2026-08-27-2.23
2026-08-26-3.00
2026-08-25-3.68
2026-08-24-5.90
2026-08-23-2.50
2026-08-22-6.20
2026-08-21-5.29
2026-08-20-4.49
2026-08-19-3.08
2026-08-18-2.94
2026-08-17-4.66
2026-08-16-5.18
2026-08-15-3.10
2026-08-14-0.28
2026-08-13-2.81
2026-08-12-3.49
2026-08-11-2.80
2026-08-10-0.33
2026-08-09-3.33
2026-08-08-3.62
2026-08-07-5.11
2026-08-06-2.51

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KIAH, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 7 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.08 · P90 |e| 5.25 °F-100+10 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.007
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08253.28 -3.28

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 +0.98 [-1.54, 2.62] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.95 [-3.72, -2.18] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.58 [-1.92, 0.43] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 +0.32 [-1.19, 1.79] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence