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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KSAT · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.89 [1.87, 3.61]1.72-2.47 [-3.53, -0.47]3.32 [2.10, 4.04]22% [8%, 40%]28%56%-0.37+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.89 [1.59, 3.65]1.72-2.47 [-3.57, 0.78]3.32 [1.59, 4.03]22% [0%, 44%]28%56%-0.37+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.89 [1.59, 3.71]1.72-2.47 [-3.65, 0.56]3.32 [1.59, 4.11]22% [0%, 44%]28%56%-0.37+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.89 [1.59, 3.66]1.72-2.47 [-3.62, 0.69]3.32 [1.59, 4.06]22% [0%, 48%]28%56%-0.37+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.44 [1.62, 3.19]1.86-1.82 [-2.98, 0.36]2.96 [2.02, 3.70]22% [8%, 40%]33%67%-0.15+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.44 [1.55, 3.27]1.86-1.82 [-3.03, 1.64]2.96 [1.96, 3.71]22% [0%, 44%]33%67%-0.15+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.44 [1.50, 3.28]1.86-1.82 [-3.14, 1.37]2.96 [1.93, 3.77]22% [0%, 44%]33%67%-0.15+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC2.44 [1.49, 3.32]1.86-1.82 [-3.10, 1.59]2.96 [1.94, 3.73]22% [0%, 48%]33%67%-0.15+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.29 [1.37, 2.91]1.33-2.15 [-2.91, -1.03]2.68 [1.82, 3.20]24% [12%, 45%]41%76%-0.03+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.29 [0.70, 2.86]1.33-2.15 [-2.86, -0.24]2.68 [0.77, 3.22]24% [10%, 67%]41%76%-0.03+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.29 [0.77, 2.94]1.33-2.15 [-2.94, -0.24]2.68 [0.84, 3.26]24% [12%, 60%]41%76%-0.03+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.29 [0.76, 2.90]1.33-2.15 [-2.90, -0.24]2.68 [0.84, 3.26]24% [10%, 58%]41%76%-0.03+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC1.82 [1.03, 2.41]1.37-1.56 [-2.38, -0.36]2.27 [1.56, 2.78]35% [18%, 67%]59%82%+0.18+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC1.82 [0.37, 2.42]1.37-1.56 [-2.35, 0.37]2.27 [0.37, 2.81]35% [18%, 100%]59%82%+0.18+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC1.82 [0.37, 2.48]1.37-1.56 [-2.41, 0.37]2.27 [0.37, 2.83]35% [17%, 100%]59%82%+0.18+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC1.82 [0.37, 2.50]1.37-1.56 [-2.37, 0.37]2.27 [0.37, 2.85]35% [17%, 100%]59%82%+0.18+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.59 [1.09, 3.75]2.43+2.03 [-0.38, 3.73]3.52 [1.22, 4.70]33% [18%, 55%]61%67%-0.26-0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.59 [1.05, 3.93]2.43+2.03 [-0.45, 3.92]3.52 [1.20, 4.90]33% [12%, 56%]61%67%-0.26-0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.59 [1.06, 3.85]2.43+2.03 [-0.48, 3.85]3.52 [1.20, 4.78]33% [12%, 56%]61%67%-0.26-0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.59 [1.04, 3.91]2.43+2.03 [-0.54, 3.90]3.52 [1.16, 4.81]33% [12%, 56%]61%67%-0.26-0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.94 [1.00, 4.36]2.47+2.65 [0.23, 4.36]3.94 [1.26, 5.21]17% [0%, 45%]61%67%-0.43-0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.94 [0.91, 4.49]2.47+2.65 [0.17, 4.49]3.94 [1.17, 5.42]17% [0%, 50%]61%67%-0.43-0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.94 [0.93, 4.43]2.47+2.65 [0.10, 4.43]3.94 [1.19, 5.30]17% [0%, 50%]61%67%-0.43-0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC2.94 [0.84, 4.51]2.47+2.65 [0.07, 4.51]3.94 [1.14, 5.36]17% [0%, 50%]61%67%-0.43-0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.76 [1.37, 3.69]2.44+1.94 [-0.62, 3.52]3.65 [1.58, 4.62]18% [0%, 38%]59%65%-0.30-0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.76 [1.16, 3.75]2.44+1.94 [-0.74, 3.57]3.65 [1.16, 4.67]18% [0%, 40%]59%65%-0.30-0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.76 [1.16, 3.73]2.44+1.94 [-0.83, 3.54]3.65 [1.16, 4.68]18% [0%, 43%]59%65%-0.30-0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.76 [1.16, 3.73]2.44+1.94 [-0.93, 3.59]3.65 [1.16, 4.60]18% [0%, 43%]59%65%-0.30-0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.06 [1.19, 4.25]2.48+2.57 [-0.04, 4.21]4.08 [1.54, 5.16]29% [7%, 60%]41%71%-0.45-0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.06 [1.14, 4.30]2.48+2.57 [-0.15, 4.23]4.08 [1.46, 5.21]29% [0%, 62%]41%71%-0.45-0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.06 [1.14, 4.24]2.48+2.57 [-0.28, 4.22]4.08 [1.48, 5.21]29% [0%, 63%]41%71%-0.45-0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.06 [1.09, 4.32]2.48+2.57 [-0.36, 4.29]4.08 [1.40, 5.18]29% [0%, 67%]41%71%-0.45-0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: +1.59 °F2026-08-14: -3.28 °F2026-08-15: -5.91 °F2026-08-16: -3.15 °F2026-08-17: -2.75 °F2026-08-18: -0.66 °F2026-08-19: -6.69 °F2026-08-20: -3.67 °F2026-08-21: -4.29 °F2026-08-22: -2.44 °F2026-08-23: -3.76 °F2026-08-24: -0.86 °F2026-08-25: -2.66 °F2026-08-26: -2.76 °F2026-08-27: -3.75 °F2026-08-28: -0.82 °F2026-08-29: +2.2 °F2026-08-30: -0.85 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.85
2026-08-29+2.20
2026-08-28-0.82
2026-08-27-3.75
2026-08-26-2.76
2026-08-25-2.66
2026-08-24-0.86
2026-08-23-3.76
2026-08-22-2.44
2026-08-21-4.29
2026-08-20-3.67
2026-08-19-6.69
2026-08-18-0.66
2026-08-17-2.75
2026-08-16-3.15
2026-08-15-5.91
2026-08-14-3.28
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08+1.59

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KSAT, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.76 · P90 |e| 4.78 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.89 -2.47

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.25 [-0.56, 1.15] no
NCEP GFS 18 +1.02 [-0.57, 1.95] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -3.13 [-4.34, -0.12] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 +0.78 [-1.86, 1.97] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence