Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Antonio Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KSAT · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.78 [1.92, 3.49]1.39-2.77 [-3.49, -1.91]3.29 [2.39, 3.95]13% [3%, 27%]39%61%-0.36+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.78 [1.68, 3.55]1.39-2.77 [-3.55, -1.65]3.29 [2.15, 4.03]13% [0%, 29%]39%61%-0.36+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.78 [1.66, 3.55]1.39-2.77 [-3.55, -1.64]3.29 [2.15, 4.02]13% [0%, 30%]39%61%-0.36+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.78 [1.49, 3.57]1.39-2.77 [-3.57, -1.47]3.29 [1.97, 4.11]13% [0%, 33%]39%61%-0.36+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.40 [1.65, 3.08]1.39-2.35 [-3.07, -1.49]2.95 [2.05, 3.59]26% [12%, 50%]43%61%-0.18+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.40 [1.46, 3.14]1.39-2.35 [-3.13, -1.22]2.95 [1.83, 3.66]26% [10%, 57%]43%61%-0.18+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.40 [1.46, 3.14]1.39-2.35 [-3.13, -1.20]2.95 [1.83, 3.67]26% [11%, 57%]43%61%-0.18+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC2.40 [1.29, 3.14]1.39-2.35 [-3.14, -1.04]2.95 [1.64, 3.76]26% [11%, 61%]43%61%-0.18+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.11 [2.36, 3.61]1.16-3.11 [-3.61, -2.36]3.43 [2.67, 3.92]4% [0%, 17%]22%52%-0.52+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.11 [2.13, 3.64]1.16-3.11 [-3.64, -2.13]3.43 [2.52, 3.92]4% [0%, 20%]22%52%-0.52+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.11 [2.15, 3.75]1.16-3.11 [-3.75, -2.15]3.43 [2.56, 4.02]4% [0%, 20%]22%52%-0.52+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.11 [2.04, 3.76]1.16-3.11 [-3.76, -2.04]3.43 [2.47, 4.05]4% [0%, 25%]22%52%-0.52+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.72 [2.02, 3.23]1.18-2.70 [-3.22, -1.96]3.07 [2.35, 3.56]9% [0%, 31%]35%61%-0.33+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.72 [1.79, 3.24]1.18-2.70 [-3.24, -1.72]3.07 [2.20, 3.57]9% [0%, 39%]35%61%-0.33+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.72 [1.82, 3.36]1.18-2.70 [-3.36, -1.74]3.07 [2.24, 3.65]9% [0%, 38%]35%61%-0.33+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC2.72 [1.71, 3.37]1.18-2.70 [-3.37, -1.64]3.07 [2.15, 3.69]9% [0%, 42%]35%61%-0.33+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.53 [1.18, 2.18]1.37-0.41 [-1.33, 0.59]1.94 [1.40, 2.71]39% [24%, 53%]70%91%+0.14+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.53 [1.15, 2.42]1.37-0.41 [-1.41, 0.75]1.94 [1.35, 2.92]39% [22%, 56%]70%91%+0.14+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.53 [1.15, 2.36]1.37-0.41 [-1.44, 0.76]1.94 [1.37, 2.82]39% [20%, 54%]70%91%+0.14+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.53 [1.15, 2.42]1.37-0.41 [-1.44, 0.77]1.94 [1.35, 2.86]39% [20%, 56%]70%91%+0.14+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC1.43 [1.01, 2.12]1.37-0.18 [-1.11, 0.84]1.92 [1.26, 2.74]43% [25%, 58%]74%96%+0.20+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC1.43 [0.99, 2.42]1.37-0.18 [-1.17, 0.99]1.92 [1.25, 2.97]43% [23%, 60%]74%96%+0.20+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC1.43 [1.00, 2.32]1.37-0.18 [-1.20, 1.01]1.92 [1.25, 2.84]43% [21%, 60%]74%96%+0.20+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC1.43 [0.98, 2.36]1.37-0.18 [-1.21, 1.01]1.92 [1.23, 2.91]43% [20%, 59%]74%96%+0.20+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.63 [1.15, 2.23]1.42-0.75 [-1.67, 0.22]2.03 [1.42, 2.70]39% [18%, 62%]70%87%+0.09+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.63 [1.12, 2.41]1.42-0.75 [-1.71, 0.39]2.03 [1.41, 2.82]39% [15%, 67%]70%87%+0.09+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.63 [1.07, 2.35]1.42-0.75 [-1.74, 0.42]2.03 [1.32, 2.77]39% [14%, 71%]70%87%+0.09+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.63 [0.96, 2.40]1.42-0.75 [-1.78, 0.46]2.03 [1.12, 2.84]39% [14%, 71%]70%87%+0.09+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC1.56 [1.11, 2.21]1.43-0.52 [-1.46, 0.46]1.97 [1.31, 2.71]43% [24%, 64%]74%87%+0.12+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC1.56 [1.09, 2.42]1.43-0.52 [-1.49, 0.65]1.97 [1.29, 2.86]43% [22%, 67%]74%87%+0.12+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC1.56 [1.03, 2.38]1.43-0.52 [-1.51, 0.68]1.97 [1.21, 2.80]43% [22%, 71%]74%87%+0.12+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC1.56 [0.93, 2.40]1.43-0.52 [-1.56, 0.72]1.97 [1.06, 2.86]43% [22%, 71%]74%87%+0.12+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KSAT, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -1.12 °F2026-08-09: -7.17 °F2026-08-10: -2.53 °F2026-08-11: -1.36 °F2026-08-12: -1.68 °F2026-08-13: -3.54 °F2026-08-14: -2.96 °F2026-08-15: -3.56 °F2026-08-16: -1.79 °F2026-08-17: -0.96 °F2026-08-18: -2.23 °F2026-08-19: -3.51 °F2026-08-20: -3.75 °F2026-08-21: -2.97 °F2026-08-22: -4.67 °F2026-08-23: -6.75 °F2026-08-24: -3.87 °F2026-08-25: -2.45 °F2026-08-26: -0.32 °F2026-08-27: -3.75 °F2026-08-28: -1.83 °F2026-08-29: -1.08 °F2026-08-30: +0.05 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.05
2026-08-29-1.08
2026-08-28-1.83
2026-08-27-3.75
2026-08-26-0.32
2026-08-25-2.45
2026-08-24-3.87
2026-08-23-6.75
2026-08-22-4.67
2026-08-21-2.97
2026-08-20-3.75
2026-08-19-3.51
2026-08-18-2.23
2026-08-17-0.96
2026-08-16-1.79
2026-08-15-3.56
2026-08-14-2.96
2026-08-13-3.54
2026-08-12-1.68
2026-08-11-1.36
2026-08-10-2.53
2026-08-09-7.17
2026-08-08-1.12

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KSAT, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.53 · P90 |e| 4.51 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.78 -2.77

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 +0.74 [-0.25, 1.25] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -2.83 [-4.03, -0.60] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.25 [-1.15, 0.56] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +0.73 [-1.32, 1.66] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSAT aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSAT (San Antonio Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSAT/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence