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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.87 [3.38, 4.43]1.09-3.87 [-4.43, -3.38]4.16 [3.60, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]5%25%-0.58+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.87 [3.32, 4.50]1.09-3.87 [-4.50, -3.32]4.16 [3.50, 4.85]0% [0%, 0%]5%25%-0.58+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.87 [3.32, 4.46]1.09-3.87 [-4.46, -3.32]4.16 [3.48, 4.84]0% [0%, 0%]5%25%-0.58+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.87 [3.30, 4.43]1.09-3.87 [-4.43, -3.30]4.16 [3.53, 4.76]0% [0%, 0%]5%25%-0.58+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 1 QC4.46 [4.02, 4.91]1.06-4.46 [-4.91, -4.02]4.67 [4.17, 5.12]0% [0%, 0%]0%10%-0.82+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 1 QC4.46 [3.96, 4.97]1.06-4.46 [-4.97, -3.96]4.67 [4.08, 5.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%10%-0.82+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 1 QC4.46 [3.89, 4.97]1.06-4.46 [-4.97, -3.89]4.67 [4.03, 5.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%10%-0.82+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 1 QC4.46 [3.95, 4.93]1.06-4.46 [-4.93, -3.95]4.67 [4.10, 5.12]0% [0%, 0%]0%10%-0.82+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.99 [3.43, 4.62]1.04-3.99 [-4.62, -3.43]4.19 [3.57, 4.79]0% [0%, 0%]5%24%-0.58+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.99 [3.25, 4.86]1.04-3.99 [-4.86, -3.25]4.19 [3.37, 5.01]0% [0%, 0%]5%24%-0.58+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.99 [3.21, 4.93]1.04-3.99 [-4.93, -3.21]4.19 [3.31, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]5%24%-0.58+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.99 [3.29, 4.90]1.04-3.99 [-4.90, -3.29]4.19 [3.42, 5.09]0% [0%, 0%]5%24%-0.58+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC4.55 [3.99, 5.06]1.05-4.55 [-5.06, -3.99]4.75 [4.11, 5.25]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.80+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC4.55 [3.79, 5.21]1.05-4.55 [-5.21, -3.79]4.75 [3.89, 5.37]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.80+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC4.55 [3.77, 5.28]1.05-4.55 [-5.28, -3.77]4.75 [3.85, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.80+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC4.55 [3.83, 5.23]1.05-4.55 [-5.23, -3.83]4.75 [3.90, 5.40]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.80+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC1.86 [1.21, 2.64]1.47+1.46 [0.66, 2.45]2.30 [1.57, 2.95]25% [11%, 36%]65%80%+0.40+0.532026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC1.86 [1.22, 2.76]1.47+1.46 [0.58, 2.76]2.30 [1.45, 3.03]25% [0%, 33%]65%80%+0.40+0.532026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC1.86 [1.17, 2.76]1.47+1.46 [0.54, 2.68]2.30 [1.42, 2.98]25% [0%, 36%]65%80%+0.40+0.532026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 1 QC1.86 [1.07, 2.76]1.47+1.46 [0.49, 2.76]2.30 [1.29, 2.94]25% [0%, 36%]65%80%+0.40+0.532026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 1 QC1.63 [1.06, 2.28]1.55+0.94 [0.09, 1.97]2.09 [1.38, 2.68]45% [15%, 67%]65%80%+0.47+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 1 QC1.63 [1.05, 2.32]1.55+0.94 [0.04, 2.15]2.09 [1.36, 2.77]45% [10%, 68%]65%80%+0.47+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 1 QC1.63 [1.00, 2.31]1.55+0.94 [0.02, 2.15]2.09 [1.27, 2.74]45% [8%, 71%]65%80%+0.47+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 1 QC1.63 [0.93, 2.30]1.55+0.94 [-0.07, 2.15]2.09 [1.21, 2.75]45% [0%, 71%]65%80%+0.47+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC1.90 [1.24, 2.70]1.67+1.36 [0.54, 2.37]2.45 [1.60, 3.30]33% [12%, 57%]62%76%+0.40+0.472026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC1.90 [1.24, 2.83]1.67+1.36 [0.53, 2.59]2.45 [1.52, 3.41]33% [5%, 60%]62%76%+0.40+0.472026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC1.90 [1.20, 2.79]1.67+1.36 [0.45, 2.54]2.45 [1.41, 3.40]33% [0%, 62%]62%76%+0.40+0.472026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC1.90 [1.06, 2.79]1.67+1.36 [0.36, 2.54]2.45 [1.23, 3.33]33% [0%, 62%]62%76%+0.40+0.472026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC1.71 [1.17, 2.43]1.65+0.88 [0.07, 1.96]2.21 [1.41, 3.01]43% [17%, 64%]67%86%+0.46+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC1.71 [1.10, 2.58]1.65+0.88 [0.02, 2.23]2.21 [1.37, 3.13]43% [7%, 64%]67%86%+0.46+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC1.71 [1.08, 2.54]1.65+0.88 [-0.06, 2.09]2.21 [1.29, 3.11]43% [0%, 67%]67%86%+0.46+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC1.71 [0.98, 2.54]1.65+0.88 [-0.10, 2.14]2.21 [1.18, 3.05]43% [0%, 68%]67%86%+0.46+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -2.8 °F2026-08-11: -5.35 °F2026-08-12: -4.07 °F2026-08-13: -3.29 °F2026-08-14: -1.24 °F2026-08-16: -5.78 °F2026-08-17: -3.94 °F2026-08-18: -3.34 °F2026-08-19: -2.01 °F2026-08-20: -3.55 °F2026-08-21: -3.3 °F2026-08-22: -5.41 °F2026-08-23: -2.29 °F2026-08-24: -4.88 °F2026-08-25: -3.66 °F2026-08-26: -2.9 °F2026-08-27: -3.3 °F2026-08-28: -8.35 °F2026-08-29: -3.97 °F2026-08-30: -4.05 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.05
2026-08-29-3.97
2026-08-28-8.35
2026-08-27-3.30
2026-08-26-2.90
2026-08-25-3.66
2026-08-24-4.88
2026-08-23-2.29
2026-08-22-5.41
2026-08-21-3.30
2026-08-20-3.55
2026-08-19-2.01
2026-08-18-3.34
2026-08-17-3.94
2026-08-16-5.78
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-1.24
2026-08-13-3.29
2026-08-12-4.07
2026-08-11-5.35
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05-2.80

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.61 · P90 |e| 5.44 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08203.87 -3.87

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 +0.09 [-0.77, 1.31] no
NCEP GFS 20 +1.69 [0.68, 2.93] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -2.81 [-4.34, -0.63] yes
Persistence (baseline) 20 +1.42 [0.63, 1.97] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence