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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC3.84 [2.68, 4.60]1.84-3.45 [-4.44, -0.95]4.22 [3.08, 4.86]6% [0%, 25%]19%25%-0.04+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC3.84 [2.62, 4.60]1.84-3.45 [-4.50, 2.26]4.22 [3.05, 4.89]6% [0%, 33%]19%25%-0.04+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC3.84 [2.66, 4.66]1.84-3.45 [-4.57, 1.21]4.22 [3.06, 4.93]6% [0%, 33%]19%25%-0.04+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 1 QC3.84 [2.56, 4.84]1.84-3.45 [-4.65, 1.25]4.22 [3.04, 5.03]6% [0%, 33%]19%25%-0.04+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 1 QC4.25 [2.90, 5.04]1.90-3.87 [-4.92, -1.25]4.61 [3.19, 5.29]0% [0%, 0%]19%25%-0.15+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 1 QC4.25 [2.75, 5.05]1.90-3.87 [-5.00, 2.07]4.61 [2.99, 5.31]0% [0%, 0%]19%25%-0.15+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 1 QC4.25 [2.74, 5.12]1.90-3.87 [-5.04, 0.95]4.61 [2.99, 5.34]0% [0%, 0%]19%25%-0.15+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 1 QC4.25 [2.74, 5.26]1.90-3.87 [-5.14, 0.95]4.61 [2.99, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]19%25%-0.15+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC4.49 [3.13, 5.54]2.54-4.12 [-5.39, -1.47]5.52 [3.41, 7.07]13% [0%, 30%]13%40%-0.20+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC4.49 [2.80, 5.49]2.54-4.12 [-5.38, 1.99]5.52 [2.80, 7.13]13% [0%, 33%]13%40%-0.20+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC4.49 [2.80, 5.42]2.54-4.12 [-5.36, 1.00]5.52 [2.80, 7.12]13% [0%, 33%]13%40%-0.20+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 1 QC4.49 [2.80, 5.47]2.54-4.12 [-5.25, 1.00]5.52 [2.80, 6.92]13% [0%, 33%]13%40%-0.20+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 1 QC4.80 [3.01, 5.86]2.61-4.64 [-5.78, -2.33]5.89 [3.58, 7.43]0% [0%, 0%]20%27%-0.29+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 1 QC4.80 [1.22, 5.85]2.61-4.64 [-5.79, 0.69]5.89 [1.22, 7.44]0% [0%, 0%]20%27%-0.29+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 1 QC4.80 [1.22, 5.77]2.61-4.64 [-5.76, 0.05]5.89 [1.22, 7.40]0% [0%, 0%]20%27%-0.29+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 1 QC4.80 [1.22, 5.78]2.61-4.64 [-5.70, 0.05]5.89 [1.22, 7.25]0% [0%, 0%]20%27%-0.29+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC2.68 [1.97, 4.35]2.55+1.45 [-0.07, 4.26]3.43 [2.53, 4.83]25% [0%, 47%]50%56%+0.36+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC2.68 [1.98, 4.99]2.55+1.45 [-0.10, 4.99]3.43 [2.52, 4.99]25% [0%, 49%]50%56%+0.36+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC2.68 [1.88, 4.99]2.55+1.45 [-0.31, 4.99]3.43 [2.45, 4.99]25% [0%, 50%]50%56%+0.36+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 1 QC2.68 [1.87, 4.99]2.55+1.45 [-0.45, 4.99]3.43 [2.43, 4.99]25% [0%, 50%]50%56%+0.36+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 1 QC2.55 [1.89, 4.05]2.59+0.95 [-0.58, 3.85]3.27 [2.42, 4.50]25% [0%, 38%]44%62%+0.39+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 1 QC2.55 [1.89, 4.66]2.59+0.95 [-0.62, 4.66]3.27 [2.45, 4.66]25% [0%, 38%]44%62%+0.39+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 1 QC2.55 [1.87, 4.66]2.59+0.95 [-0.82, 4.66]3.27 [2.36, 4.66]25% [0%, 40%]44%62%+0.39+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 1 QC2.55 [1.87, 4.66]2.59+0.95 [-0.96, 4.66]3.27 [2.39, 4.66]25% [0%, 38%]44%62%+0.39+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC2.48 [1.53, 4.67]2.31+1.88 [0.57, 4.67]3.18 [2.29, 4.74]40% [0%, 64%]47%53%+0.40+0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC2.48 [1.51, 5.31]2.31+1.88 [0.54, 5.31]3.18 [2.21, 5.32]40% [0%, 65%]47%53%+0.40+0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC2.48 [1.38, 5.23]2.31+1.88 [0.24, 5.23]3.18 [1.98, 5.24]40% [0%, 67%]47%53%+0.40+0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 1 QC2.48 [1.37, 5.24]2.31+1.88 [0.21, 5.24]3.18 [1.94, 5.24]40% [0%, 67%]47%53%+0.40+0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 1 QC2.31 [1.55, 4.15]2.28+1.37 [0.05, 4.15]2.90 [2.20, 4.26]40% [0%, 64%]47%60%+0.44+0.432026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 1 QC2.31 [1.51, 4.87]2.28+1.37 [-0.00, 4.87]2.90 [2.11, 4.89]40% [0%, 62%]47%60%+0.44+0.432026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 1 QC2.31 [1.41, 4.76]2.28+1.37 [-0.31, 4.76]2.90 [1.89, 4.77]40% [0%, 67%]47%60%+0.44+0.432026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 1 QC2.31 [1.41, 4.77]2.28+1.37 [-0.33, 4.77]2.90 [1.89, 4.80]40% [0%, 67%]47%60%+0.44+0.432026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-10: +3.14 °F2026-08-16: -4.43 °F2026-08-17: -3.92 °F2026-08-18: -3.09 °F2026-08-19: -1 °F2026-08-20: -3.82 °F2026-08-21: -7.39 °F2026-08-22: -4.42 °F2026-08-23: -5.56 °F2026-08-24: -5.87 °F2026-08-25: -4.51 °F2026-08-26: -4.31 °F2026-08-27: -2.98 °F2026-08-28: -1.27 °F2026-08-29: -5.01 °F2026-08-30: -0.74 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.74
2026-08-29-5.01
2026-08-28-1.27
2026-08-27-2.98
2026-08-26-4.31
2026-08-25-4.51
2026-08-24-5.87
2026-08-23-5.56
2026-08-22-4.42
2026-08-21-7.39
2026-08-20-3.82
2026-08-19-1.00
2026-08-18-3.09
2026-08-17-3.92
2026-08-16-4.43
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10+3.14

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 9-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.12 · P90 |e| 5.72 °F-100+10 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08163.84 -3.45

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 -0.36 [-1.22, 1.39] no
NCEP GFS 16 +0.33 [-5.83, 2.14] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -3.30 [-4.10, 0.22] no
Persistence (baseline) 16 +0.15 [-2.86, 1.44] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence