Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Boston Logan · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KBOS · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.37 [2.73, 6.00]4.29-1.02 [-3.14, 0.06]5.42 [3.85, 6.53]29% [8%, 53%]41%41%+0.47+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.37 [2.71, 6.66]4.29-1.02 [-3.90, 0.01]5.42 [3.65, 6.82]29% [0%, 56%]41%41%+0.47+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.37 [2.33, 6.56]4.29-1.02 [-4.56, 0.25]5.42 [3.34, 6.79]29% [0%, 59%]41%41%+0.47+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.37 [2.39, 6.97]4.29-1.02 [-4.73, 0.17]5.42 [3.41, 7.01]29% [0%, 57%]41%41%+0.47+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC4.13 [2.68, 5.46]4.08-0.71 [-2.56, 0.23]5.10 [3.53, 6.00]12% [0%, 25%]41%47%+0.50+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC4.13 [2.61, 5.96]4.08-0.71 [-3.19, 0.23]5.10 [3.42, 6.20]12% [0%, 25%]41%47%+0.50+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC4.13 [2.39, 5.84]4.08-0.71 [-3.62, 0.51]5.10 [3.22, 6.15]12% [0%, 27%]41%47%+0.50+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC4.13 [2.39, 6.18]4.08-0.71 [-3.93, 0.40]5.10 [3.15, 6.28]12% [0%, 25%]41%47%+0.50+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d16 1 QC4.42 [3.62, 5.43]4.46-1.02 [-3.14, 0.38]5.46 [4.37, 6.58]19% [0%, 29%]19%50%+0.48+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d16 1 QC4.42 [3.61, 5.88]4.46-1.02 [-3.74, 0.43]5.46 [4.32, 6.75]19% [0%, 29%]19%50%+0.48+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d16 1 QC4.42 [3.57, 5.75]4.46-1.02 [-4.62, 0.76]5.46 [4.28, 6.65]19% [0%, 31%]19%50%+0.48+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall16 1 QC4.42 [3.51, 5.77]4.46-1.02 [-4.43, 0.81]5.46 [4.13, 6.69]19% [0%, 31%]19%50%+0.48+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d16 1 QC4.29 [3.55, 5.18]4.29-0.52 [-2.73, 1.00]5.29 [4.29, 6.24]19% [0%, 29%]25%50%+0.49+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d16 1 QC4.29 [3.60, 5.54]4.29-0.52 [-3.34, 0.99]5.29 [4.28, 6.34]19% [0%, 29%]25%50%+0.49+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d16 1 QC4.29 [3.52, 5.39]4.29-0.52 [-4.32, 1.35]5.29 [4.22, 6.31]19% [0%, 30%]25%50%+0.49+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall16 1 QC4.29 [3.46, 5.41]4.29-0.52 [-4.11, 1.44]5.29 [4.18, 6.33]19% [0%, 29%]25%50%+0.49+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC1.64 [0.95, 2.01]1.50+0.93 [-0.23, 1.64]2.19 [1.12, 2.57]41% [26%, 60%]71%76%+0.58+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC1.64 [0.72, 2.02]1.50+0.93 [-0.32, 1.68]2.19 [0.91, 2.59]41% [22%, 75%]71%76%+0.58+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC1.64 [0.64, 2.05]1.50+0.93 [-0.39, 1.69]2.19 [0.86, 2.61]41% [20%, 70%]71%76%+0.58+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC1.64 [0.81, 2.00]1.50+0.93 [-0.34, 1.68]2.19 [0.98, 2.57]41% [20%, 68%]71%76%+0.58+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC1.74 [0.90, 2.13]1.50+1.17 [0.08, 1.78]2.21 [1.15, 2.57]35% [22%, 60%]71%76%+0.56+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC1.74 [0.61, 2.14]1.50+1.17 [-0.04, 1.81]2.21 [0.95, 2.59]35% [22%, 80%]71%76%+0.56+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC1.74 [0.64, 2.17]1.50+1.17 [-0.05, 1.86]2.21 [0.80, 2.60]35% [21%, 76%]71%76%+0.56+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC1.74 [0.69, 2.15]1.50+1.17 [-0.06, 1.81]2.21 [0.92, 2.56]35% [20%, 80%]71%76%+0.56+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d16 1 QC2.02 [1.68, 2.41]2.02+0.48 [-1.03, 1.42]2.34 [1.93, 2.70]19% [0%, 29%]62%81%+0.50+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d16 1 QC2.02 [1.68, 2.45]2.02+0.48 [-1.89, 1.55]2.34 [1.89, 2.71]19% [0%, 29%]62%81%+0.50+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d16 1 QC2.02 [1.70, 2.47]2.02+0.48 [-1.88, 1.65]2.34 [1.89, 2.74]19% [0%, 30%]62%81%+0.50+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall16 1 QC2.02 [1.67, 2.47]2.02+0.48 [-1.89, 1.64]2.34 [1.89, 2.75]19% [0%, 29%]62%81%+0.50+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d16 1 QC2.14 [1.75, 2.56]2.07+0.67 [-0.78, 1.57]2.44 [1.92, 2.88]12% [0%, 21%]62%75%+0.47+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d16 1 QC2.14 [1.74, 2.58]2.07+0.67 [-1.74, 1.67]2.44 [1.83, 2.89]12% [0%, 20%]62%75%+0.47+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d16 1 QC2.14 [1.75, 2.58]2.07+0.67 [-1.68, 1.80]2.44 [1.80, 2.91]12% [0%, 20%]62%75%+0.47+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall16 1 QC2.14 [1.74, 2.59]2.07+0.67 [-1.80, 1.76]2.44 [1.80, 2.92]12% [0%, 20%]62%75%+0.47+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -6.1 °F2026-08-14: -0.37 °F2026-08-15: +0.7 °F2026-08-16: -3.68 °F2026-08-17: -0.82 °F2026-08-18: +4.16 °F2026-08-19: -8.32 °F2026-08-20: -1.75 °F2026-08-21: +9.39 °F2026-08-22: -0.97 °F2026-08-23: +5.2 °F2026-08-24: -8.92 °F2026-08-25: +0.19 °F2026-08-26: +1.87 °F2026-08-27: -7 °F2026-08-29: +6.98 °F2026-08-30: -7.84 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-7.84
2026-08-29+6.98
2026-08-28—
2026-08-27-7.00
2026-08-26+1.87
2026-08-25+0.19
2026-08-24-8.92
2026-08-23+5.20
2026-08-22-0.97
2026-08-21+9.39
2026-08-20-1.75
2026-08-19-8.32
2026-08-18+4.16
2026-08-17-0.82
2026-08-16-3.68
2026-08-15+0.70
2026-08-14-0.37
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-6.10

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 1 daydashed: P50 |e| 4.16 · P90 |e| 8.56 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.002
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.001

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08174.37 -1.02

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 16

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -0.29 [-2.85, 0.92] no
NCEP GFS 17 -1.40 [-3.34, 3.51] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -0.89 [-2.04, 1.59] no
Persistence (baseline) 17 -3.87 [-7.83, -0.90] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KBOS ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KBOS (Boston Logan), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence