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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Boston Logan · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KBOS · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.40 [1.56, 3.18]2.44-0.54 [-1.39, 0.39]3.06 [1.99, 3.81]27% [10%, 45%]45%73%+0.52+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.40 [1.42, 3.29]2.44-0.54 [-1.48, 0.58]3.06 [1.85, 3.89]27% [6%, 47%]45%73%+0.52+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.40 [1.35, 3.24]2.44-0.54 [-1.60, 0.59]3.06 [1.80, 3.85]27% [6%, 50%]45%73%+0.52+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.40 [1.40, 3.25]2.44-0.54 [-1.60, 0.62]3.06 [1.77, 3.87]27% [5%, 50%]45%73%+0.52+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.39 [1.87, 2.90]2.42-0.21 [-1.26, 0.96]3.01 [2.37, 3.51]27% [12%, 44%]50%68%+0.53+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.39 [1.76, 2.94]2.42-0.21 [-1.38, 1.21]3.01 [2.18, 3.53]27% [10%, 46%]50%68%+0.53+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.39 [1.67, 2.95]2.42-0.21 [-1.39, 1.18]3.01 [2.06, 3.53]27% [10%, 50%]50%68%+0.53+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC2.39 [1.70, 2.95]2.42-0.21 [-1.49, 1.28]3.01 [2.07, 3.55]27% [8%, 46%]50%68%+0.53+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.47 [1.76, 3.06]2.43-1.03 [-1.70, -0.34]2.95 [2.10, 3.52]26% [12%, 41%]43%74%+0.51+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.47 [1.60, 3.13]2.43-1.03 [-1.81, -0.23]2.95 [1.92, 3.56]26% [8%, 44%]43%74%+0.51+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.47 [1.66, 3.15]2.43-1.03 [-1.81, -0.10]2.95 [1.94, 3.60]26% [7%, 44%]43%74%+0.51+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.47 [1.63, 3.22]2.43-1.03 [-1.88, -0.16]2.95 [1.95, 3.61]26% [6%, 45%]43%74%+0.51+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.44 [1.85, 3.00]2.44-0.65 [-1.29, 0.01]2.87 [2.20, 3.40]22% [8%, 40%]43%70%+0.52+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.44 [1.73, 3.00]2.44-0.65 [-1.40, 0.19]2.87 [2.09, 3.40]22% [6%, 44%]43%70%+0.52+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.44 [1.74, 3.08]2.44-0.65 [-1.44, 0.30]2.87 [2.05, 3.47]22% [6%, 43%]43%70%+0.52+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC2.44 [1.71, 3.04]2.44-0.65 [-1.50, 0.18]2.87 [2.01, 3.45]22% [7%, 45%]43%70%+0.52+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.30 [0.96, 1.66]1.16+0.53 [-0.24, 1.15]1.56 [1.05, 2.02]50% [29%, 71%]86%95%+0.18+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.30 [0.92, 1.67]1.16+0.53 [-0.66, 1.15]1.56 [1.00, 2.03]50% [29%, 75%]86%95%+0.18+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.30 [0.94, 1.69]1.16+0.53 [-0.63, 1.20]1.56 [1.01, 2.06]50% [29%, 75%]86%95%+0.18+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.30 [0.93, 1.64]1.16+0.53 [-0.73, 1.12]1.56 [1.00, 1.99]50% [29%, 77%]86%95%+0.18+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC1.34 [1.00, 1.64]1.16+0.66 [-0.16, 1.21]1.54 [1.19, 1.83]36% [15%, 64%]82%95%+0.14+0.302026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC1.34 [0.91, 1.66]1.16+0.66 [-0.63, 1.24]1.54 [1.12, 1.84]36% [12%, 71%]82%95%+0.14+0.302026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC1.34 [0.91, 1.67]1.16+0.66 [-0.62, 1.26]1.54 [1.14, 1.86]36% [14%, 71%]82%95%+0.14+0.302026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC1.34 [0.88, 1.65]1.16+0.66 [-0.72, 1.23]1.54 [1.09, 1.86]36% [12%, 75%]82%95%+0.14+0.302026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.20 [0.81, 1.65]1.18+0.48 [-0.21, 1.16]1.62 [1.13, 2.07]52% [30%, 73%]83%96%+0.25+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.20 [0.74, 1.66]1.18+0.48 [-0.37, 1.14]1.62 [1.06, 2.10]52% [31%, 78%]83%96%+0.25+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.20 [0.79, 1.68]1.18+0.48 [-0.43, 1.18]1.62 [1.08, 2.12]52% [29%, 78%]83%96%+0.25+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.20 [0.70, 1.68]1.18+0.48 [-0.41, 1.15]1.62 [1.03, 2.10]52% [29%, 80%]83%96%+0.25+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC1.32 [0.90, 1.75]1.20+0.64 [-0.15, 1.36]1.67 [1.18, 2.13]43% [21%, 68%]78%96%+0.16+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC1.32 [0.79, 1.76]1.20+0.64 [-0.27, 1.39]1.67 [1.10, 2.15]43% [20%, 73%]78%96%+0.16+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC1.32 [0.82, 1.79]1.20+0.64 [-0.32, 1.40]1.67 [1.13, 2.17]43% [20%, 71%]78%96%+0.16+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC1.32 [0.75, 1.76]1.20+0.64 [-0.32, 1.39]1.67 [1.05, 2.15]43% [21%, 75%]78%96%+0.16+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -2.36 °F2026-08-09: +1.02 °F2026-08-10: +3.82 °F2026-08-11: -0.14 °F2026-08-12: +0.37 °F2026-08-13: -0.65 °F2026-08-14: -3 °F2026-08-15: +2.91 °F2026-08-16: -3.15 °F2026-08-17: -0.5 °F2026-08-18: +2.26 °F2026-08-19: -7.29 °F2026-08-20: -2.19 °F2026-08-21: +4.88 °F2026-08-22: +1.34 °F2026-08-23: +1.45 °F2026-08-24: -6.26 °F2026-08-25: -3.99 °F2026-08-26: +0.98 °F2026-08-27: -2.83 °F2026-08-29: +1.02 °F2026-08-30: +0.44 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.44
2026-08-29+1.02
2026-08-28—
2026-08-27-2.83
2026-08-26+0.98
2026-08-25-3.99
2026-08-24-6.26
2026-08-23+1.45
2026-08-22+1.34
2026-08-21+4.88
2026-08-20-2.19
2026-08-19-7.29
2026-08-18+2.26
2026-08-17-0.50
2026-08-16-3.15
2026-08-15+2.91
2026-08-14-3.00
2026-08-13-0.65
2026-08-12+0.37
2026-08-11-0.14
2026-08-10+3.82
2026-08-09+1.02
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-2.36

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KBOS, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.23 · P90 |e| 4.79 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.004
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08222.40 -0.54

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.77 [-1.87, -0.07] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -5.10 [-5.10, -5.10] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -2.28 [-4.45, -0.11] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -6.23 [-6.23, -6.23] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -4.05 [-6.65, -1.45] yes
NCEP GFS 22 -0.50 [-1.08, 0.26] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -4.90 [-4.90, -4.90] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -0.47 [-1.42, 0.25] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -3.06 [-3.06, -3.06] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -1.90 [-2.72, -1.09] yes
Persistence (baseline) 21 -2.72 [-4.49, -1.31] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KBOS ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KBOS (Boston Logan), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KBOS/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence