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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.04 [2.45, 3.68]2.73-2.01 [-3.37, -0.36]3.89 [2.91, 4.63]15% [0%, 30%]45%45%+0.15-0.012026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.04 [2.32, 3.80]2.73-2.01 [-3.65, -0.24]3.89 [2.74, 4.63]15% [0%, 33%]45%45%+0.15-0.012026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.04 [2.28, 3.82]2.73-2.01 [-3.67, -0.16]3.89 [2.71, 4.65]15% [0%, 33%]45%45%+0.15-0.012026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.04 [2.21, 3.95]2.73-2.01 [-3.91, -0.17]3.89 [2.65, 4.67]15% [0%, 33%]45%45%+0.15-0.012026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 1 QC3.10 [2.41, 3.73]2.95-1.65 [-3.16, 0.05]3.96 [2.75, 4.79]20% [6%, 32%]40%55%+0.14-0.092026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 1 QC3.10 [2.28, 3.78]2.95-1.65 [-3.38, 0.25]3.96 [2.56, 4.80]20% [0%, 33%]40%55%+0.14-0.092026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 1 QC3.10 [2.26, 3.79]2.95-1.65 [-3.41, 0.31]3.96 [2.50, 4.84]20% [0%, 33%]40%55%+0.14-0.092026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 1 QC3.10 [2.22, 3.80]2.95-1.65 [-3.73, 0.34]3.96 [2.47, 4.84]20% [0%, 33%]40%55%+0.14-0.092026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.85 [3.22, 4.54]2.82-2.61 [-4.07, -1.30]4.32 [3.61, 4.98]5% [0%, 12%]24%43%-0.08-0.082026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.85 [3.19, 4.60]2.82-2.61 [-4.39, -1.21]4.32 [3.54, 5.06]5% [0%, 12%]24%43%-0.08-0.082026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.85 [3.12, 4.62]2.82-2.61 [-4.38, -1.12]4.32 [3.48, 5.04]5% [0%, 13%]24%43%-0.08-0.082026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.85 [3.08, 4.57]2.82-2.61 [-4.39, -1.15]4.32 [3.45, 5.03]5% [0%, 13%]24%43%-0.08-0.082026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.94 [3.27, 4.66]3.05-2.26 [-3.83, -0.78]4.45 [3.66, 5.05]5% [0%, 12%]19%38%-0.10-0.172026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.94 [3.24, 4.65]3.05-2.26 [-3.96, -0.65]4.45 [3.68, 5.07]5% [0%, 12%]19%38%-0.10-0.172026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.94 [3.11, 4.73]3.05-2.26 [-3.98, -0.55]4.45 [3.48, 5.08]5% [0%, 13%]19%38%-0.10-0.172026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC3.94 [3.15, 4.61]3.05-2.26 [-4.05, -0.59]4.45 [3.53, 5.05]5% [0%, 13%]19%38%-0.10-0.172026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.27 [2.08, 4.47]2.55+2.66 [1.41, 3.98]4.10 [2.66, 5.14]15% [0%, 25%]35%60%-0.21-0.012026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.27 [1.99, 4.44]2.55+2.66 [1.36, 4.06]4.10 [2.55, 5.07]15% [0%, 25%]35%60%-0.21-0.012026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.27 [2.05, 4.57]2.55+2.66 [1.31, 4.13]4.10 [2.62, 5.23]15% [0%, 27%]35%60%-0.21-0.012026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.27 [1.99, 4.48]2.55+2.66 [1.49, 3.89]4.10 [2.52, 5.15]15% [0%, 27%]35%60%-0.21-0.012026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 1 QC2.99 [1.79, 4.14]2.64+2.00 [0.64, 3.40]3.79 [2.33, 4.76]25% [6%, 46%]40%55%-0.11-0.052026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 1 QC2.99 [1.71, 4.10]2.64+2.00 [0.62, 3.50]3.79 [2.04, 4.73]25% [0%, 50%]40%55%-0.11-0.052026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 1 QC2.99 [1.68, 4.26]2.64+2.00 [0.56, 3.62]3.79 [2.01, 4.85]25% [0%, 54%]40%55%-0.11-0.052026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 1 QC2.99 [1.65, 4.24]2.64+2.00 [0.67, 3.31]3.79 [2.01, 4.84]25% [0%, 54%]40%55%-0.11-0.052026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.10 [2.16, 3.94]2.83+1.96 [0.69, 2.89]3.94 [2.70, 4.86]14% [6%, 22%]43%57%-0.10-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.10 [2.12, 3.98]2.83+1.96 [0.28, 3.03]3.94 [2.67, 4.82]14% [0%, 21%]43%57%-0.10-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.10 [2.08, 4.09]2.83+1.96 [0.37, 3.04]3.94 [2.54, 4.89]14% [0%, 22%]43%57%-0.10-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.10 [2.14, 4.06]2.83+1.96 [0.22, 3.02]3.94 [2.67, 4.78]14% [0%, 22%]43%57%-0.10-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.00 [2.09, 3.86]2.90+1.25 [-0.18, 2.31]3.73 [2.54, 4.64]10% [0%, 25%]29%67%-0.07-0.122026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.00 [2.03, 4.07]2.90+1.25 [-0.66, 2.45]3.73 [2.49, 4.62]10% [0%, 27%]29%67%-0.07-0.122026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.00 [1.97, 4.20]2.90+1.25 [-0.49, 2.43]3.73 [2.36, 4.65]10% [0%, 29%]29%67%-0.07-0.122026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC3.00 [2.02, 4.22]2.90+1.25 [-0.69, 2.37]3.73 [2.53, 4.60]10% [0%, 25%]29%67%-0.07-0.122026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-05: -4.31 °F2026-08-11: +1.02 °F2026-08-12: -3.57 °F2026-08-13: -1.83 °F2026-08-14: +3.45 °F2026-08-16: +3.16 °F2026-08-17: +1.02 °F2026-08-18: -3.81 °F2026-08-19: +0.08 °F2026-08-20: -10.16 °F2026-08-21: -1.25 °F2026-08-22: -1.86 °F2026-08-23: -3.21 °F2026-08-24: -4.49 °F2026-08-25: -3.99 °F2026-08-26: -4.87 °F2026-08-27: -0.16 °F2026-08-28: -7 °F2026-08-29: +1.1 °F2026-08-30: +0.53 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.53
2026-08-29+1.10
2026-08-28-7.00
2026-08-27-0.16
2026-08-26-4.87
2026-08-25-3.99
2026-08-24-4.49
2026-08-23-3.21
2026-08-22-1.86
2026-08-21-1.25
2026-08-20-10.16
2026-08-19+0.08
2026-08-18-3.81
2026-08-17+1.02
2026-08-16+3.16
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14+3.45
2026-08-13-1.83
2026-08-12-3.57
2026-08-11+1.02
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05-4.31

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 4-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 5 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.18 · P90 |e| 5.08 °F-200+20 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.005
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08203.04 -2.01

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 -0.33 [-1.25, 0.25] no
NCEP GFS 20 +0.29 [-1.56, 1.32] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -0.92 [-1.68, 0.26] no
Persistence (baseline) 20 -0.56 [-1.78, 0.45] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence