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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KLAX · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC2.44 [1.97, 2.78]1.44-2.20 [-2.61, -1.49]2.91 [2.33, 3.30]23% [12%, 33%]41%73%-0.22+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC2.44 [1.72, 2.83]1.44-2.20 [-2.70, -1.02]2.91 [1.94, 3.35]23% [12%, 35%]41%73%-0.22+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC2.44 [1.70, 2.90]1.44-2.20 [-2.83, -1.07]2.91 [1.92, 3.40]23% [11%, 33%]41%73%-0.22+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC2.44 [1.75, 2.86]1.44-2.20 [-2.73, -0.96]2.91 [1.97, 3.37]23% [10%, 33%]41%73%-0.22+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC5.57 [4.84, 6.15]1.59-5.57 [-6.15, -4.84]5.94 [5.18, 6.45]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-1.79+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC5.57 [4.29, 6.36]1.59-5.57 [-6.36, -4.29]5.94 [4.67, 6.62]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-1.79+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC5.57 [4.34, 6.52]1.59-5.57 [-6.52, -4.34]5.94 [4.78, 6.78]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-1.79+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC5.57 [4.29, 6.35]1.59-5.57 [-6.35, -4.29]5.94 [4.69, 6.60]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-1.79+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC2.42 [1.81, 2.84]1.22-2.18 [-2.66, -1.45]2.70 [2.15, 3.06]8% [0%, 26%]42%67%-0.26+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC2.42 [1.53, 2.92]1.22-2.18 [-2.82, -0.96]2.70 [1.89, 3.12]8% [0%, 33%]42%67%-0.26+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC2.42 [1.52, 3.00]1.22-2.18 [-2.96, -1.10]2.70 [1.78, 3.17]8% [0%, 29%]42%67%-0.26+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 2 QC2.42 [1.52, 2.95]1.22-2.18 [-2.87, -1.10]2.70 [1.78, 3.14]8% [0%, 32%]42%67%-0.26+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 2 QC5.56 [4.90, 6.10]1.25-5.56 [-6.10, -4.90]5.80 [5.13, 6.26]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.90+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 2 QC5.56 [4.47, 6.28]1.25-5.56 [-6.28, -4.47]5.80 [4.80, 6.41]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.90+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 2 QC5.56 [4.60, 6.44]1.25-5.56 [-6.44, -4.60]5.80 [4.88, 6.50]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.90+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 2 QC5.56 [4.58, 6.23]1.25-5.56 [-6.23, -4.58]5.80 [4.86, 6.36]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.90+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC0.85 [0.48, 1.31]0.74+0.58 [0.03, 1.16]1.06 [0.61, 1.49]73% [45%, 95%]91%100%+0.18+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC0.85 [0.48, 1.48]0.74+0.58 [0.04, 1.34]1.06 [0.64, 1.64]73% [33%, 94%]91%100%+0.18+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC0.85 [0.47, 1.44]0.74+0.58 [-0.00, 1.28]1.06 [0.60, 1.58]73% [38%, 96%]91%100%+0.18+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC0.85 [0.45, 1.49]0.74+0.58 [0.01, 1.48]1.06 [0.57, 1.61]73% [33%, 100%]91%100%+0.18+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC0.77 [0.56, 1.04]0.73-0.24 [-0.81, 0.27]0.93 [0.70, 1.16]64% [38%, 80%]100%100%+0.26+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC0.77 [0.55, 1.18]0.73-0.24 [-0.86, 0.42]0.93 [0.70, 1.30]64% [25%, 80%]100%100%+0.26+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC0.77 [0.53, 1.17]0.73-0.24 [-0.92, 0.38]0.93 [0.67, 1.28]64% [28%, 81%]100%100%+0.26+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC0.77 [0.52, 1.17]0.73-0.24 [-0.91, 0.46]0.93 [0.65, 1.26]64% [27%, 82%]100%100%+0.26+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC0.76 [0.48, 1.05]0.66+0.55 [0.19, 0.93]0.92 [0.64, 1.14]71% [46%, 93%]100%100%+0.24+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC0.76 [0.47, 1.12]0.66+0.55 [0.17, 1.03]0.92 [0.62, 1.19]71% [39%, 94%]100%100%+0.24+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC0.76 [0.45, 1.11]0.66+0.55 [0.15, 1.05]0.92 [0.58, 1.18]71% [42%, 100%]100%100%+0.24+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 2 QC0.76 [0.45, 1.16]0.66+0.55 [0.16, 1.13]0.92 [0.60, 1.22]71% [40%, 100%]100%100%+0.24+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 2 QC0.70 [0.53, 0.86]0.66-0.34 [-0.71, 0.05]0.85 [0.63, 1.00]79% [65%, 90%]100%100%+0.30+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 2 QC0.70 [0.52, 0.88]0.66-0.34 [-0.74, 0.09]0.85 [0.60, 1.02]79% [64%, 92%]100%100%+0.30+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 2 QC0.70 [0.50, 0.87]0.66-0.34 [-0.78, 0.13]0.85 [0.59, 1.02]79% [64%, 92%]100%100%+0.30+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 2 QC0.70 [0.50, 0.88]0.66-0.34 [-0.75, 0.16]0.85 [0.58, 1.01]79% [63%, 100%]100%100%+0.30+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: +1.55 °F2026-08-10: -0.59 °F2026-08-11: -2.22 °F2026-08-12: -2.27 °F2026-08-13: -1.7 °F2026-08-14: -5.01 °F2026-08-15: -2.32 °F2026-08-16: -0.4 °F2026-08-17: -1.86 °F2026-08-18: -6.24 °F2026-08-19: -3.19 °F2026-08-20: +1.02 °F2026-08-21: -3.33 °F2026-08-22: -0.8 °F2026-08-23: -2.56 °F2026-08-24: -0.93 °F2026-08-25: -2.9 °F2026-08-26: -2.16 °F2026-08-27: -4.68 °F2026-08-28: -0.29 °F2026-08-29: -5.03 °F2026-08-30: -2.56 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.56
2026-08-29-5.03
2026-08-28-0.29
2026-08-27-4.68
2026-08-26-2.16
2026-08-25-2.90
2026-08-24-0.93
2026-08-23-2.56
2026-08-22-0.80
2026-08-21-3.33
2026-08-20+1.02
2026-08-19-3.19
2026-08-18-6.24
2026-08-17-1.86
2026-08-16-0.40
2026-08-15-2.32
2026-08-14-5.01
2026-08-13-1.70
2026-08-12-2.27
2026-08-11-2.22
2026-08-10-0.59
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02+1.55

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 7 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.25 · P90 |e| 4.98 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.007
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08222.44 -2.20

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.83 [0.02, 1.35] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -3.38 [-3.38, -3.38] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -2.11 [-2.76, -1.46] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.19 [-0.19, -0.19] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +0.72 [-0.27, 1.71] no
NCEP GFS 22 +0.21 [-0.58, 0.65] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.69 [-2.69, -2.69] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -1.39 [-2.06, -0.94] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.17 [0.17, 0.17] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +0.52 [-0.71, 1.76] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.44 [-0.22, 1.18] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence