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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.17 [2.60, 4.40]2.92-2.35 [-3.76, -1.71]4.01 [3.23, 5.34]28% [9%, 41%]39%50%+0.25+0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.17 [2.53, 5.36]2.92-2.35 [-5.15, -1.64]4.01 [3.18, 6.32]28% [0%, 41%]39%50%+0.25+0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.17 [2.52, 5.10]2.92-2.35 [-4.57, -1.65]4.01 [3.13, 5.95]28% [0%, 43%]39%50%+0.25+0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.17 [2.50, 5.19]2.92-2.35 [-4.54, -1.57]4.01 [3.11, 6.05]28% [0%, 42%]39%50%+0.25+0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.04 [2.40, 4.30]2.87-1.91 [-3.34, -1.27]3.78 [2.88, 5.17]28% [9%, 41%]39%50%+0.28+0.082026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.04 [2.34, 5.10]2.87-1.91 [-4.81, -1.18]3.78 [2.76, 6.17]28% [0%, 41%]39%50%+0.28+0.082026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.04 [2.31, 4.86]2.87-1.91 [-4.32, -1.20]3.78 [2.74, 5.85]28% [0%, 43%]39%50%+0.28+0.082026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.04 [2.31, 5.10]2.87-1.91 [-4.30, -1.11]3.78 [2.74, 5.94]28% [0%, 42%]39%50%+0.28+0.082026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.83 [3.85, 5.80]2.97-4.22 [-5.79, -2.44]5.45 [4.65, 6.11]6% [0%, 17%]18%35%-0.09+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.83 [3.86, 6.02]2.97-4.22 [-6.02, -2.16]5.45 [4.61, 6.29]6% [0%, 17%]18%35%-0.09+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.83 [3.76, 5.95]2.97-4.22 [-5.95, -1.98]5.45 [4.45, 6.27]6% [0%, 17%]18%35%-0.09+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.83 [3.67, 5.98]2.97-4.22 [-5.98, -1.63]5.45 [4.43, 6.27]6% [0%, 17%]18%35%-0.09+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.73 [3.79, 5.66]3.05-3.96 [-5.61, -2.16]5.31 [4.45, 6.02]6% [0%, 17%]18%29%-0.07-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.73 [3.81, 5.92]3.05-3.96 [-5.92, -1.83]5.31 [4.46, 6.17]6% [0%, 17%]18%29%-0.07-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.73 [3.69, 5.88]3.05-3.96 [-5.88, -1.67]5.31 [4.34, 6.18]6% [0%, 17%]18%29%-0.07-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.73 [3.68, 5.88]3.05-3.96 [-5.88, -1.35]5.31 [4.29, 6.19]6% [0%, 17%]18%29%-0.07-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.19 [2.25, 4.04]2.52+2.82 [1.80, 3.87]4.04 [2.93, 4.87]33% [9%, 50%]39%50%+0.28+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.19 [1.97, 4.35]2.52+2.82 [1.52, 3.99]4.04 [2.64, 5.10]33% [0%, 48%]39%50%+0.28+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.19 [1.94, 4.26]2.52+2.82 [1.56, 4.05]4.04 [2.62, 5.08]33% [0%, 50%]39%50%+0.28+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.19 [1.92, 4.44]2.52+2.82 [1.59, 4.21]4.04 [2.63, 5.11]33% [0%, 50%]39%50%+0.28+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.81 [1.89, 3.67]2.54+2.13 [1.08, 3.20]3.65 [2.58, 4.44]33% [12%, 58%]44%56%+0.37+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.81 [1.63, 3.91]2.54+2.13 [0.77, 3.35]3.65 [2.30, 4.68]33% [8%, 67%]44%56%+0.37+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.81 [1.62, 3.84]2.54+2.13 [0.75, 3.43]3.65 [2.28, 4.64]33% [0%, 71%]44%56%+0.37+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC2.81 [1.58, 3.95]2.54+2.13 [0.82, 3.58]3.65 [2.28, 4.63]33% [0%, 72%]44%56%+0.37+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.89 [2.01, 3.91]2.43+2.40 [1.50, 3.62]3.83 [2.54, 4.78]29% [9%, 43%]47%65%+0.34+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.89 [1.96, 4.07]2.43+2.40 [1.46, 3.83]3.83 [2.32, 4.89]29% [0%, 42%]47%65%+0.34+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.89 [1.93, 4.12]2.43+2.40 [1.42, 3.91]3.83 [2.20, 4.96]29% [0%, 43%]47%65%+0.34+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.89 [1.92, 4.21]2.43+2.40 [1.42, 4.06]3.83 [2.27, 5.04]29% [0%, 43%]47%65%+0.34+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.62 [1.85, 3.56]2.43+1.73 [0.82, 3.11]3.34 [2.30, 4.23]24% [0%, 40%]53%65%+0.40+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.62 [1.81, 3.76]2.43+1.73 [0.82, 3.32]3.34 [2.08, 4.36]24% [0%, 40%]53%65%+0.40+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.62 [1.81, 3.79]2.43+1.73 [0.77, 3.45]3.34 [2.01, 4.43]24% [0%, 43%]53%65%+0.40+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC2.62 [1.78, 3.92]2.43+1.73 [0.75, 3.68]3.34 [2.02, 4.48]24% [0%, 40%]53%65%+0.40+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -7.39 °F2026-08-14: -0.47 °F2026-08-15: -8.24 °F2026-08-16: +2.43 °F2026-08-17: -5.3 °F2026-08-18: +0.59 °F2026-08-19: -4.66 °F2026-08-20: +0.2 °F2026-08-21: +0.39 °F2026-08-22: -4.09 °F2026-08-23: -4.02 °F2026-08-24: -3.66 °F2026-08-25: +2.58 °F2026-08-26: -3.85 °F2026-08-27: -0.05 °F2026-08-28: -6.23 °F2026-08-29: +1.23 °F2026-08-30: -1.7 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.70
2026-08-29+1.23
2026-08-28-6.23
2026-08-27-0.05
2026-08-26-3.85
2026-08-25+2.58
2026-08-24-3.66
2026-08-23-4.02
2026-08-22-4.09
2026-08-21+0.39
2026-08-20+0.20
2026-08-19-4.66
2026-08-18+0.59
2026-08-17-5.30
2026-08-16+2.43
2026-08-15-8.24
2026-08-14-0.47
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-7.39

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.12 · P90 |e| 6.58 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.17 -2.35

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -0.46 [-1.48, 1.86] no
NCEP GFS 18 +0.41 [-0.65, 3.27] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -1.11 [-2.10, 0.84] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 -1.05 [-2.26, 1.91] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence