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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KEWR · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.86 [3.04, 4.57]2.04-3.62 [-4.57, -2.50]4.50 [3.68, 5.15]13% [4%, 25%]26%39%+0.07+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.86 [2.97, 4.55]2.04-3.62 [-4.55, -2.42]4.50 [3.61, 5.14]13% [4%, 29%]26%39%+0.07+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.86 [2.92, 4.59]2.04-3.62 [-4.59, -2.28]4.50 [3.58, 5.13]13% [0%, 29%]26%39%+0.07+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.86 [2.94, 4.50]2.04-3.62 [-4.50, -2.46]4.50 [3.58, 5.13]13% [0%, 33%]26%39%+0.07+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.96 [3.10, 4.72]2.09-3.72 [-4.71, -2.55]4.63 [3.72, 5.32]9% [0%, 21%]22%39%+0.05+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.96 [3.01, 4.70]2.09-3.72 [-4.70, -2.45]4.63 [3.61, 5.32]9% [0%, 25%]22%39%+0.05+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.96 [2.94, 4.73]2.09-3.72 [-4.73, -2.32]4.63 [3.59, 5.30]9% [0%, 25%]22%39%+0.05+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC3.96 [2.99, 4.66]2.09-3.72 [-4.65, -2.50]4.63 [3.60, 5.27]9% [0%, 29%]22%39%+0.05+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.11 [2.63, 3.54]1.42-3.07 [-3.50, -2.59]3.51 [3.02, 3.91]13% [5%, 21%]26%48%+0.25+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.11 [2.59, 3.56]1.42-3.07 [-3.54, -2.57]3.51 [2.93, 3.93]13% [0%, 21%]26%48%+0.25+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.11 [2.62, 3.61]1.42-3.07 [-3.58, -2.56]3.51 [2.90, 3.94]13% [0%, 21%]26%48%+0.25+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.11 [2.53, 3.53]1.42-3.07 [-3.51, -2.49]3.51 [2.78, 3.91]13% [0%, 21%]26%48%+0.25+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC3.16 [2.65, 3.61]1.43-3.14 [-3.59, -2.62]3.57 [3.04, 4.01]13% [5%, 21%]22%48%+0.24+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC3.16 [2.61, 3.63]1.43-3.14 [-3.61, -2.61]3.57 [2.96, 4.02]13% [0%, 21%]22%48%+0.24+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC3.16 [2.62, 3.69]1.43-3.14 [-3.67, -2.61]3.57 [2.92, 4.04]13% [0%, 21%]22%48%+0.24+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC3.16 [2.52, 3.59]1.43-3.14 [-3.58, -2.52]3.57 [2.82, 4.03]13% [0%, 21%]22%48%+0.24+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.55 [1.77, 3.25]2.04+1.73 [0.47, 3.01]3.25 [2.10, 4.06]17% [5%, 29%]39%70%+0.40+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.55 [1.67, 3.33]2.04+1.73 [0.47, 3.29]3.25 [1.88, 4.12]17% [0%, 29%]39%70%+0.40+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.55 [1.61, 3.39]2.04+1.73 [0.35, 3.34]3.25 [1.82, 4.15]17% [0%, 29%]39%70%+0.40+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.55 [1.66, 3.28]2.04+1.73 [0.35, 3.12]3.25 [1.85, 4.05]17% [0%, 29%]39%70%+0.40+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.23 [1.67, 2.72]2.09+0.79 [-0.52, 2.13]2.94 [2.05, 3.56]30% [8%, 50%]52%74%+0.47+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.23 [1.57, 2.80]2.09+0.79 [-0.56, 2.47]2.94 [1.91, 3.57]30% [0%, 51%]52%74%+0.47+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.23 [1.57, 2.83]2.09+0.79 [-0.71, 2.49]2.94 [1.89, 3.61]30% [0%, 54%]52%74%+0.47+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC2.23 [1.57, 2.84]2.09+0.79 [-0.68, 2.24]2.94 [1.86, 3.61]30% [0%, 52%]52%74%+0.47+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.59 [1.72, 3.30]2.21+1.56 [0.54, 2.70]3.30 [2.14, 3.99]22% [5%, 40%]52%70%+0.39+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.59 [1.45, 3.44]2.21+1.56 [0.54, 3.02]3.30 [1.91, 4.05]22% [0%, 43%]52%70%+0.39+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.59 [1.39, 3.47]2.21+1.56 [0.40, 3.00]3.30 [1.67, 4.10]22% [0%, 43%]52%70%+0.39+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.59 [1.37, 3.44]2.21+1.56 [0.37, 2.93]3.30 [1.61, 4.04]22% [0%, 44%]52%70%+0.39+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.36 [1.67, 2.98]2.31+0.61 [-0.51, 1.87]3.09 [2.21, 3.59]39% [20%, 56%]57%61%+0.44+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.36 [1.52, 3.10]2.31+0.61 [-0.50, 2.19]3.09 [1.99, 3.61]39% [17%, 57%]57%61%+0.44+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.36 [1.52, 3.11]2.31+0.61 [-0.65, 2.19]3.09 [1.92, 3.65]39% [15%, 57%]57%61%+0.44+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC2.36 [1.58, 3.13]2.31+0.61 [-0.69, 2.11]3.09 [1.95, 3.65]39% [17%, 57%]57%61%+0.44+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: -4.43 °F2026-08-09: -3.44 °F2026-08-10: -0.93 °F2026-08-11: -5.12 °F2026-08-12: -10.36 °F2026-08-13: -3.73 °F2026-08-14: -3.7 °F2026-08-15: -3.24 °F2026-08-16: -1.98 °F2026-08-17: +0.48 °F2026-08-18: -1.75 °F2026-08-19: -7.77 °F2026-08-20: +2.38 °F2026-08-21: -2.77 °F2026-08-22: -1.77 °F2026-08-23: -2.45 °F2026-08-24: -5.44 °F2026-08-25: -6.71 °F2026-08-26: -4.12 °F2026-08-27: -5.47 °F2026-08-28: -5.02 °F2026-08-29: -4.98 °F2026-08-30: -0.85 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.85
2026-08-29-4.98
2026-08-28-5.02
2026-08-27-5.47
2026-08-26-4.12
2026-08-25-6.71
2026-08-24-5.44
2026-08-23-2.45
2026-08-22-1.77
2026-08-21-2.77
2026-08-20+2.38
2026-08-19-7.77
2026-08-18-1.75
2026-08-17+0.48
2026-08-16-1.98
2026-08-15-3.24
2026-08-14-3.70
2026-08-13-3.73
2026-08-12-10.36
2026-08-11-5.12
2026-08-10-0.93
2026-08-09-3.44
2026-08-08-4.43

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.7 · P90 |e| 6.46 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.006
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.86 -3.62

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 +1.13 [0.18, 2.27] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -0.42 [-1.07, 0.11] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.46 [-1.86, 1.48] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 -0.31 [-1.76, 1.21] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence