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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Phoenix Sky Harbor · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KPHX · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.53 [2.96, 4.26]2.66-2.53 [-3.61, -1.69]4.10 [3.44, 4.80]0% [0%, 0%]33%50%+0.39+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.53 [2.96, 4.46]2.66-2.53 [-3.81, -1.71]4.10 [3.25, 4.98]0% [0%, 0%]33%50%+0.39+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.53 [2.92, 4.46]2.66-2.53 [-3.93, -1.68]4.10 [3.24, 4.99]0% [0%, 0%]33%50%+0.39+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.53 [3.02, 4.56]2.66-2.53 [-3.87, -1.80]4.10 [3.38, 5.02]0% [0%, 0%]33%50%+0.39+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.56 [3.03, 4.26]2.65-2.45 [-3.47, -1.60]4.08 [3.44, 4.76]0% [0%, 0%]28%50%+0.39+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.56 [3.02, 4.38]2.65-2.45 [-3.75, -1.58]4.08 [3.24, 4.89]0% [0%, 0%]28%50%+0.39+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.56 [3.01, 4.49]2.65-2.45 [-3.81, -1.55]4.08 [3.24, 4.94]0% [0%, 0%]28%50%+0.39+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.56 [3.07, 4.46]2.65-2.45 [-3.83, -1.65]4.08 [3.24, 4.95]0% [0%, 0%]28%50%+0.39+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.71 [2.84, 4.83]2.49-3.36 [-4.56, -2.55]4.58 [3.42, 5.75]10% [0%, 21%]30%45%+0.38+0.582026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.71 [2.82, 5.16]2.49-3.36 [-4.91, -2.53]4.58 [3.33, 6.03]10% [0%, 21%]30%45%+0.38+0.582026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.71 [2.72, 5.19]2.49-3.36 [-4.91, -2.43]4.58 [3.22, 6.13]10% [0%, 22%]30%45%+0.38+0.582026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.71 [2.87, 5.31]2.49-3.36 [-5.08, -2.62]4.58 [3.46, 6.08]10% [0%, 22%]30%45%+0.38+0.582026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.61 [2.78, 4.71]2.55-3.26 [-4.44, -2.45]4.58 [3.30, 5.78]20% [8%, 30%]30%45%+0.39+0.572026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.61 [2.73, 5.06]2.55-3.26 [-4.82, -2.44]4.58 [3.23, 6.14]20% [0%, 30%]30%45%+0.39+0.572026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.61 [2.66, 5.11]2.55-3.26 [-4.82, -2.32]4.58 [3.11, 6.22]20% [0%, 30%]30%45%+0.39+0.572026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC3.61 [2.80, 5.20]2.55-3.26 [-4.98, -2.48]4.58 [3.34, 6.11]20% [0%, 30%]30%45%+0.39+0.572026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.69 [2.26, 5.54]3.44+2.16 [0.20, 4.54]5.00 [2.69, 6.96]22% [5%, 42%]44%61%+0.36+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.69 [2.11, 5.59]3.44+2.16 [0.20, 4.67]5.00 [2.57, 7.03]22% [0%, 48%]44%61%+0.36+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.69 [2.01, 5.70]3.44+2.16 [0.11, 4.69]5.00 [2.35, 7.11]22% [0%, 50%]44%61%+0.36+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.69 [1.98, 5.48]3.44+2.16 [0.01, 4.78]5.00 [2.39, 6.94]22% [0%, 50%]44%61%+0.36+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC4.15 [2.64, 6.08]3.51+2.97 [0.84, 5.40]5.51 [3.14, 7.53]22% [4%, 47%]33%44%+0.28+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC4.15 [2.51, 6.22]3.51+2.97 [0.84, 5.60]5.51 [2.98, 7.62]22% [0%, 50%]33%44%+0.28+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC4.15 [2.47, 6.28]3.51+2.97 [0.75, 5.65]5.51 [2.81, 7.75]22% [0%, 50%]33%44%+0.28+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC4.15 [2.42, 6.14]3.51+2.97 [0.63, 5.75]5.51 [2.87, 7.55]22% [0%, 50%]33%44%+0.28+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.04 [1.62, 4.29]3.18+1.12 [-0.81, 3.20]4.42 [2.18, 6.02]30% [20%, 50%]45%55%+0.49+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.04 [1.23, 4.38]3.18+1.12 [-0.79, 3.38]4.42 [1.78, 6.21]30% [18%, 63%]45%55%+0.49+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.04 [1.34, 4.36]3.18+1.12 [-0.88, 3.45]4.42 [1.94, 6.19]30% [18%, 50%]45%55%+0.49+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.04 [1.37, 4.36]3.18+1.12 [-0.95, 3.57]4.42 [1.98, 6.12]30% [18%, 60%]45%55%+0.49+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.33 [2.05, 4.70]3.08+1.98 [0.02, 4.04]4.65 [2.48, 6.38]15% [0%, 29%]50%65%+0.44+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.33 [1.87, 4.87]3.08+1.98 [0.06, 4.21]4.65 [2.28, 6.57]15% [0%, 31%]50%65%+0.44+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.33 [1.89, 4.87]3.08+1.98 [-0.10, 4.32]4.65 [2.28, 6.52]15% [0%, 30%]50%65%+0.44+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC3.33 [1.96, 4.89]3.08+1.98 [-0.21, 4.41]4.65 [2.33, 6.46]15% [0%, 30%]50%65%+0.44+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -3.24 °F2026-08-12: -5.06 °F2026-08-13: -6.85 °F2026-08-14: +1.76 °F2026-08-16: -1.28 °F2026-08-17: -4.09 °F2026-08-19: -1.97 °F2026-08-20: +1.84 °F2026-08-21: -4.45 °F2026-08-22: -7.79 °F2026-08-23: -3.27 °F2026-08-24: +1.22 °F2026-08-25: -2.1 °F2026-08-26: -2.69 °F2026-08-27: +2.42 °F2026-08-28: +1.74 °F2026-08-29: -7.95 °F2026-08-30: -3.87 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.87
2026-08-29-7.95
2026-08-28+1.74
2026-08-27+2.42
2026-08-26-2.69
2026-08-25-2.10
2026-08-24+1.22
2026-08-23-3.27
2026-08-22-7.79
2026-08-21-4.45
2026-08-20+1.84
2026-08-19-1.97
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-4.09
2026-08-16-1.28
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14+1.76
2026-08-13-6.85
2026-08-12-5.06
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-3.24

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.96 · P90 |e| 7.13 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.004
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.53 -2.53

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -1.14 [-2.06, -0.07] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -0.55 [-2.10, 2.92] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -2.11 [-3.33, 1.32] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 -2.30 [-5.78, -0.33] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHX ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHX (Phoenix Sky Harbor), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence