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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.26 [1.27, 2.94]1.89-0.94 [-1.55, -0.16]2.70 [1.42, 3.41]15% [0%, 33%]55%80%+0.25+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.26 [1.14, 2.97]1.89-0.94 [-1.63, -0.03]2.70 [1.14, 3.41]15% [0%, 33%]55%80%+0.25+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.26 [1.13, 3.05]1.89-0.94 [-1.62, 0.07]2.70 [1.14, 3.45]15% [0%, 38%]55%80%+0.25+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.26 [1.13, 3.06]1.89-0.94 [-1.57, 0.20]2.70 [1.14, 3.52]15% [0%, 36%]55%80%+0.25+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 1 QC2.27 [1.39, 2.85]1.77-1.28 [-1.86, -0.57]2.67 [1.56, 3.25]20% [5%, 44%]50%75%+0.24+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 1 QC2.27 [1.13, 2.87]1.77-1.28 [-1.90, -0.44]2.67 [1.27, 3.28]20% [3%, 60%]50%75%+0.24+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 1 QC2.27 [1.14, 2.92]1.77-1.28 [-1.89, -0.40]2.67 [1.25, 3.34]20% [0%, 60%]50%75%+0.24+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 1 QC2.27 [1.16, 2.89]1.77-1.28 [-1.86, -0.35]2.67 [1.27, 3.36]20% [0%, 60%]50%75%+0.24+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.44 [1.50, 3.13]1.80-1.40 [-2.35, -0.34]2.93 [1.92, 3.51]19% [4%, 46%]48%62%+0.16+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.44 [1.10, 3.24]1.80-1.40 [-2.42, -0.10]2.93 [1.61, 3.56]19% [0%, 67%]48%62%+0.16+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.44 [1.09, 3.26]1.80-1.40 [-2.54, -0.04]2.93 [1.40, 3.60]19% [0%, 67%]48%62%+0.16+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.44 [0.78, 3.26]1.80-1.40 [-2.34, -0.08]2.93 [0.90, 3.65]19% [0%, 67%]48%62%+0.16+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.72 [1.63, 3.56]1.88-1.82 [-2.82, -0.78]3.19 [2.06, 3.89]19% [4%, 46%]43%57%+0.06+0.322026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.72 [1.12, 3.66]1.88-1.82 [-2.88, -0.53]3.19 [1.64, 3.93]19% [0%, 67%]43%57%+0.06+0.322026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.72 [1.12, 3.73]1.88-1.82 [-3.02, -0.46]3.19 [1.48, 3.99]19% [0%, 67%]43%57%+0.06+0.322026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC2.72 [0.98, 3.73]1.88-1.82 [-2.85, -0.49]3.19 [1.04, 3.98]19% [0%, 67%]43%57%+0.06+0.322026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.49 [2.40, 4.37]1.43+3.49 [2.40, 4.37]3.96 [2.82, 4.76]10% [0%, 31%]15%40%-0.40+0.442026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.49 [2.37, 4.42]1.43+3.49 [2.37, 4.42]3.96 [2.82, 4.78]10% [0%, 33%]15%40%-0.40+0.442026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.49 [2.26, 4.45]1.43+3.49 [2.26, 4.45]3.96 [2.71, 4.78]10% [0%, 33%]15%40%-0.40+0.442026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.49 [2.33, 4.42]1.43+3.49 [2.33, 4.42]3.96 [2.76, 4.82]10% [0%, 33%]15%40%-0.40+0.442026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 1 QC3.76 [2.75, 4.56]1.37+3.76 [2.75, 4.56]4.18 [3.09, 4.91]5% [0%, 15%]15%30%-0.50+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 1 QC3.76 [2.72, 4.63]1.37+3.76 [2.72, 4.63]4.18 [3.08, 4.93]5% [0%, 17%]15%30%-0.50+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 1 QC3.76 [2.61, 4.64]1.37+3.76 [2.61, 4.64]4.18 [2.98, 4.95]5% [0%, 18%]15%30%-0.50+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 1 QC3.76 [2.69, 4.64]1.37+3.76 [2.69, 4.64]4.18 [3.06, 5.00]5% [0%, 18%]15%30%-0.50+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.20 [2.27, 4.02]1.42+3.18 [2.21, 4.02]3.63 [2.68, 4.31]14% [0%, 29%]24%52%-0.27+0.442026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.20 [2.18, 4.13]1.42+3.18 [2.11, 4.13]3.63 [2.63, 4.33]14% [0%, 29%]24%52%-0.27+0.442026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.20 [2.12, 4.17]1.42+3.18 [2.02, 4.17]3.63 [2.59, 4.36]14% [0%, 31%]24%52%-0.27+0.442026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.20 [2.16, 4.10]1.42+3.18 [2.07, 4.10]3.63 [2.60, 4.32]14% [0%, 29%]24%52%-0.27+0.442026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.36 [2.52, 4.10]1.31+3.36 [2.52, 4.10]3.74 [2.94, 4.30]14% [0%, 29%]14%38%-0.33+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.36 [2.40, 4.19]1.31+3.36 [2.40, 4.19]3.74 [2.88, 4.34]14% [0%, 29%]14%38%-0.33+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.36 [2.32, 4.23]1.31+3.36 [2.32, 4.23]3.74 [2.82, 4.35]14% [0%, 31%]14%38%-0.33+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC3.36 [2.37, 4.18]1.31+3.36 [2.37, 4.18]3.74 [2.83, 4.33]14% [0%, 29%]14%38%-0.33+0.482026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: +1.14 °F2026-08-11: -1.67 °F2026-08-12: -0.48 °F2026-08-13: -0.46 °F2026-08-14: -1.35 °F2026-08-16: -1.27 °F2026-08-17: -2.35 °F2026-08-18: -2.17 °F2026-08-19: -1.37 °F2026-08-20: -1.91 °F2026-08-21: +6 °F2026-08-22: +0.56 °F2026-08-23: -4.24 °F2026-08-24: -5.18 °F2026-08-25: +1.9 °F2026-08-26: +3.63 °F2026-08-27: -2.19 °F2026-08-28: -2.99 °F2026-08-29: -2.88 °F2026-08-30: -1.49 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.49
2026-08-29-2.88
2026-08-28-2.99
2026-08-27-2.19
2026-08-26+3.63
2026-08-25+1.90
2026-08-24-5.18
2026-08-23-4.24
2026-08-22+0.56
2026-08-21+6.00
2026-08-20-1.91
2026-08-19-1.37
2026-08-18-2.17
2026-08-17-2.35
2026-08-16-1.27
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-1.35
2026-08-13-0.46
2026-08-12-0.48
2026-08-11-1.67
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05+1.14

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.9 · P90 |e| 4.33 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08202.26 -0.94

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 -0.92 [-1.55, -0.30] yes
NCEP GFS 20 +0.42 [-0.47, 1.24] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -5.27 [-6.65, -4.07] yes
Persistence (baseline) 20 -0.74 [-1.46, -0.06] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence