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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 4

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d26 1 QC3.21 [2.41, 3.94]1.84-2.67 [-3.52, -2.02]3.65 [2.81, 4.33]12% [0%, 23%]27%46%-0.21+0.292026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d26 1 QC3.21 [2.34, 4.13]1.84-2.67 [-3.69, -1.97]3.65 [2.73, 4.47]12% [0%, 24%]27%46%-0.21+0.292026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d26 1 QC3.21 [2.24, 4.19]1.84-2.67 [-3.72, -1.93]3.65 [2.65, 4.51]12% [0%, 24%]27%46%-0.21+0.292026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall26 1 QC3.21 [2.21, 4.15]1.84-2.67 [-3.80, -1.80]3.65 [2.60, 4.49]12% [0%, 24%]27%46%-0.21+0.292026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d26 1 QC3.70 [2.93, 4.45]1.86-3.25 [-4.13, -2.58]4.11 [3.25, 4.85]0% [0%, 0%]15%42%-0.39+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d26 1 QC3.70 [2.85, 4.62]1.86-3.25 [-4.34, -2.52]4.11 [3.17, 4.98]0% [0%, 0%]15%42%-0.39+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d26 1 QC3.70 [2.77, 4.65]1.86-3.25 [-4.30, -2.50]4.11 [3.11, 5.00]0% [0%, 0%]15%42%-0.39+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall26 1 QC3.70 [2.76, 4.63]1.86-3.25 [-4.39, -2.37]4.11 [3.11, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]15%42%-0.39+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d26 1 QC3.38 [2.63, 4.10]1.53-2.91 [-3.46, -2.47]3.61 [2.88, 4.29]0% [0%, 0%]15%35%-0.27+0.412026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d26 1 QC3.38 [2.58, 4.10]1.53-2.91 [-3.49, -2.46]3.61 [2.83, 4.27]0% [0%, 0%]15%35%-0.27+0.412026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d26 1 QC3.38 [2.49, 4.16]1.53-2.91 [-3.49, -2.43]3.61 [2.74, 4.36]0% [0%, 0%]15%35%-0.27+0.412026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall26 1 QC3.38 [2.49, 4.18]1.53-2.91 [-3.48, -2.39]3.61 [2.74, 4.36]0% [0%, 0%]15%35%-0.27+0.412026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d26 1 QC3.85 [3.17, 4.50]1.55-3.46 [-4.04, -3.00]4.09 [3.39, 4.74]0% [0%, 0%]12%31%-0.45+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d26 1 QC3.85 [3.11, 4.51]1.55-3.46 [-4.06, -3.01]4.09 [3.31, 4.75]0% [0%, 0%]12%31%-0.45+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d26 1 QC3.85 [2.99, 4.58]1.55-3.46 [-4.07, -2.94]4.09 [3.21, 4.81]0% [0%, 0%]12%31%-0.45+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall26 1 QC3.85 [3.03, 4.57]1.55-3.46 [-4.06, -2.93]4.09 [3.23, 4.82]0% [0%, 0%]12%31%-0.45+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d26 1 QC1.85 [1.25, 2.44]1.38-1.53 [-2.28, -0.84]2.29 [1.56, 2.85]35% [15%, 55%]54%85%+0.36+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d26 1 QC1.85 [1.16, 2.54]1.38-1.53 [-2.38, -0.74]2.29 [1.46, 2.97]35% [13%, 57%]54%85%+0.36+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d26 1 QC1.85 [1.15, 2.60]1.38-1.53 [-2.44, -0.72]2.29 [1.46, 3.02]35% [12%, 57%]54%85%+0.36+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall26 1 QC1.85 [1.14, 2.48]1.38-1.53 [-2.34, -0.71]2.29 [1.46, 2.90]35% [14%, 57%]54%85%+0.36+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d26 1 QC2.02 [1.43, 2.62]1.39-1.76 [-2.53, -1.07]2.46 [1.72, 3.05]31% [15%, 46%]50%81%+0.30+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d26 1 QC2.02 [1.41, 2.73]1.39-1.76 [-2.60, -0.97]2.46 [1.64, 3.16]31% [13%, 47%]50%81%+0.30+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d26 1 QC2.02 [1.37, 2.78]1.39-1.76 [-2.67, -0.93]2.46 [1.63, 3.21]31% [12%, 47%]50%81%+0.30+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall26 1 QC2.02 [1.37, 2.67]1.39-1.76 [-2.60, -0.95]2.46 [1.63, 3.11]31% [12%, 47%]50%81%+0.30+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d26 1 QC1.83 [1.38, 2.31]1.20-1.59 [-2.24, -0.97]2.18 [1.70, 2.63]27% [11%, 43%]50%88%+0.37+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d26 1 QC1.83 [1.30, 2.37]1.20-1.59 [-2.33, -0.87]2.18 [1.62, 2.64]27% [8%, 44%]50%88%+0.37+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d26 1 QC1.83 [1.31, 2.42]1.20-1.59 [-2.39, -0.89]2.18 [1.62, 2.72]27% [7%, 43%]50%88%+0.37+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall26 1 QC1.83 [1.28, 2.41]1.20-1.59 [-2.37, -0.87]2.18 [1.61, 2.72]27% [9%, 43%]50%88%+0.37+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d26 1 QC2.01 [1.57, 2.51]1.19-1.81 [-2.47, -1.19]2.34 [1.84, 2.82]31% [12%, 48%]54%81%+0.30+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d26 1 QC2.01 [1.54, 2.58]1.19-1.81 [-2.55, -1.11]2.34 [1.79, 2.85]31% [9%, 50%]54%81%+0.30+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d26 1 QC2.01 [1.52, 2.63]1.19-1.81 [-2.62, -1.10]2.34 [1.78, 2.92]31% [8%, 48%]54%81%+0.30+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall26 1 QC2.01 [1.51, 2.62]1.19-1.81 [-2.61, -1.12]2.34 [1.78, 2.90]31% [9%, 48%]54%81%+0.30+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -1.67 °F2026-08-06: -4.98 °F2026-08-07: -7.08 °F2026-08-08: -1.72 °F2026-08-09: -1.5 °F2026-08-10: -2.16 °F2026-08-11: -0.99 °F2026-08-12: -0.52 °F2026-08-13: -1.15 °F2026-08-14: -2.27 °F2026-08-15: -2.37 °F2026-08-16: -2.59 °F2026-08-17: -3.91 °F2026-08-18: -3.6 °F2026-08-19: -3.28 °F2026-08-20: -3.53 °F2026-08-21: +3.96 °F2026-08-22: -2.65 °F2026-08-23: -4.71 °F2026-08-24: -6.68 °F2026-08-25: +3.02 °F2026-08-26: -0.81 °F2026-08-27: -3.43 °F2026-08-28: -5.28 °F2026-08-29: -6.07 °F2026-08-30: -3.41 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.41
2026-08-29-6.07
2026-08-28-5.28
2026-08-27-3.43
2026-08-26-0.81
2026-08-25+3.02
2026-08-24-6.68
2026-08-23-4.71
2026-08-22-2.65
2026-08-21+3.96
2026-08-20-3.53
2026-08-19-3.28
2026-08-18-3.60
2026-08-17-3.91
2026-08-16-2.59
2026-08-15-2.37
2026-08-14-2.27
2026-08-13-1.15
2026-08-12-0.52
2026-08-11-0.99
2026-08-10-2.16
2026-08-09-1.50
2026-08-08-1.72
2026-08-07-7.08
2026-08-06-4.98
2026-08-05-1.67

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.15 · P90 |e| 5.67 °F-100+10 °Fn = 26 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08263.21 -2.67

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 26 +1.33 [0.42, 2.63] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -3.93 [-5.23, -2.53] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 20 +0.92 [0.30, 1.55] yes
Persistence (baseline) 26 +0.55 [-0.08, 1.52] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence