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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KLAX · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC3.06 [1.34, 4.28]3.05-1.72 [-3.45, 0.91]4.00 [1.78, 5.07]17% [5%, 40%]56%61%+0.21+0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC3.06 [0.88, 4.33]3.05-1.72 [-3.56, 1.39]4.00 [1.09, 5.14]17% [5%, 50%]56%61%+0.21+0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC3.06 [0.87, 4.42]3.05-1.72 [-3.66, 1.32]4.00 [1.09, 5.16]17% [0%, 50%]56%61%+0.21+0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC3.06 [0.85, 4.40]3.05-1.72 [-3.69, 1.59]4.00 [1.07, 5.13]17% [0%, 50%]56%61%+0.21+0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC5.14 [2.99, 6.83]2.83-5.14 [-6.83, -2.99]6.11 [3.40, 7.56]6% [0%, 18%]17%33%-0.32+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC5.14 [2.61, 6.93]2.83-5.14 [-6.93, -2.61]6.11 [3.09, 7.65]6% [0%, 22%]17%33%-0.32+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC5.14 [2.59, 7.07]2.83-5.14 [-7.07, -2.59]6.11 [3.08, 7.70]6% [0%, 22%]17%33%-0.32+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC5.14 [2.60, 7.15]2.83-5.14 [-7.15, -2.60]6.11 [2.97, 7.71]6% [0%, 22%]17%33%-0.32+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC2.35 [1.61, 2.95]1.85-1.67 [-2.57, -0.36]2.75 [1.97, 3.26]24% [6%, 42%]41%71%+0.40+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC2.35 [1.63, 3.00]1.85-1.67 [-2.57, 0.40]2.75 [1.91, 3.26]24% [0%, 43%]41%71%+0.40+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC2.35 [1.55, 3.03]1.85-1.67 [-2.70, 0.27]2.75 [1.84, 3.32]24% [0%, 44%]41%71%+0.40+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 2 QC2.35 [1.53, 3.11]1.85-1.67 [-2.77, 0.09]2.75 [1.81, 3.33]24% [0%, 43%]41%71%+0.40+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 2 QC5.13 [3.43, 6.20]1.99-5.13 [-6.20, -3.43]5.60 [4.10, 6.40]6% [0%, 18%]12%24%-0.32+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 2 QC5.13 [2.93, 6.25]1.99-5.13 [-6.25, -2.93]5.60 [3.53, 6.43]6% [0%, 18%]12%24%-0.32+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 2 QC5.13 [2.92, 6.33]1.99-5.13 [-6.33, -2.92]5.60 [3.57, 6.50]6% [0%, 18%]12%24%-0.32+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 2 QC5.13 [2.85, 6.35]1.99-5.13 [-6.35, -2.85]5.60 [3.62, 6.51]6% [0%, 20%]12%24%-0.32+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC1.73 [0.99, 3.16]1.53+1.10 [0.19, 2.92]2.44 [1.15, 3.96]33% [9%, 48%]72%89%+0.28+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC1.73 [0.98, 3.55]1.53+1.10 [0.16, 3.38]2.44 [1.14, 4.36]33% [0%, 48%]72%89%+0.28+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC1.73 [0.95, 3.48]1.53+1.10 [0.17, 3.29]2.44 [1.11, 4.31]33% [0%, 50%]72%89%+0.28+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC1.73 [0.98, 3.55]1.53+1.10 [0.09, 3.44]2.44 [1.11, 4.30]33% [0%, 50%]72%89%+0.28+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC1.56 [0.64, 2.65]1.55+0.44 [-0.53, 2.29]2.15 [0.89, 3.22]50% [22%, 89%]61%94%+0.35+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC1.56 [0.59, 2.91]1.55+0.44 [-0.57, 2.77]2.15 [0.74, 3.51]50% [18%, 100%]61%94%+0.35+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC1.56 [0.51, 2.89]1.55+0.44 [-0.56, 2.65]2.15 [0.60, 3.44]50% [15%, 100%]61%94%+0.35+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC1.56 [0.52, 2.94]1.55+0.44 [-0.59, 2.80]2.15 [0.62, 3.49]50% [17%, 100%]61%94%+0.35+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC1.78 [1.27, 2.65]1.33+1.56 [1.07, 2.23]2.36 [1.62, 3.22]35% [0%, 54%]71%82%+0.30+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC1.78 [1.23, 3.26]1.33+1.56 [1.03, 2.70]2.36 [1.54, 3.51]35% [0%, 57%]71%82%+0.30+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC1.78 [1.22, 3.23]1.33+1.56 [0.99, 2.66]2.36 [1.48, 3.51]35% [0%, 57%]71%82%+0.30+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 2 QC1.78 [1.17, 3.27]1.33+1.56 [0.94, 2.46]2.36 [1.38, 3.51]35% [0%, 57%]71%82%+0.30+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 2 QC1.47 [1.08, 2.14]1.37+0.81 [0.28, 1.40]1.81 [1.34, 2.35]29% [8%, 50%]76%88%+0.42+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 2 QC1.47 [1.07, 2.52]1.37+0.81 [0.29, 1.68]1.81 [1.30, 2.52]29% [0%, 50%]76%88%+0.42+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 2 QC1.47 [1.06, 2.45]1.37+0.81 [0.27, 1.60]1.81 [1.29, 2.52]29% [0%, 50%]76%88%+0.42+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 2 QC1.47 [1.05, 2.52]1.37+0.81 [0.22, 1.51]1.81 [1.26, 2.52]29% [0%, 50%]76%88%+0.42+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: +0.12 °F2026-08-14: -1.82 °F2026-08-15: -1.02 °F2026-08-16: +0.46 °F2026-08-17: +1.21 °F2026-08-18: -6.84 °F2026-08-19: -7 °F2026-08-20: +2.6 °F2026-08-21: -6.31 °F2026-08-22: -1.36 °F2026-08-23: -8.11 °F2026-08-24: -5.52 °F2026-08-25: -3.9 °F2026-08-26: +0.13 °F2026-08-27: -1.13 °F2026-08-28: +1.48 °F2026-08-29: +4.41 °F2026-08-30: +1.66 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.66
2026-08-29+4.41
2026-08-28+1.48
2026-08-27-1.13
2026-08-26+0.13
2026-08-25-3.90
2026-08-24-5.52
2026-08-23-8.11
2026-08-22-1.36
2026-08-21-6.31
2026-08-20+2.60
2026-08-19-7.00
2026-08-18-6.84
2026-08-17+1.21
2026-08-16+0.46
2026-08-15-1.02
2026-08-14-1.82
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08+0.12

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAX, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.74 · P90 |e| 6.89 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.06 -1.72

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.60 [-0.49, 1.78] no
NCEP GFS 18 +0.61 [-2.19, 2.25] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -2.12 [-3.85, -0.82] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -0.83 [-2.94, 0.91] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence