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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Los Angeles Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KLAX · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC2.02 [0.94, 2.87]2.02+0.02 [-1.69, 1.60]2.71 [1.31, 3.46]43% [15%, 80%]65%78%+0.39+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC2.02 [0.58, 2.91]2.02+0.02 [-1.92, 1.76]2.71 [0.67, 3.48]43% [14%, 100%]65%78%+0.39+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC2.02 [0.63, 2.96]2.02+0.02 [-1.96, 1.85]2.71 [0.68, 3.62]43% [11%, 100%]65%78%+0.39+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 2 QC2.02 [0.63, 2.91]2.02+0.02 [-1.94, 1.67]2.71 [0.71, 3.50]43% [13%, 100%]65%78%+0.39+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 2 QC2.04 [0.84, 2.97]2.02-0.53 [-2.29, 1.04]2.75 [1.40, 3.47]39% [17%, 72%]61%70%+0.38+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 2 QC2.04 [0.47, 3.05]2.02-0.53 [-2.52, 1.18]2.75 [0.64, 3.52]39% [14%, 86%]61%70%+0.38+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 2 QC2.04 [0.50, 3.05]2.02-0.53 [-2.65, 1.29]2.75 [0.69, 3.58]39% [14%, 85%]61%70%+0.38+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 2 QC2.04 [0.52, 3.08]2.02-0.53 [-2.63, 1.08]2.75 [0.72, 3.58]39% [14%, 82%]61%70%+0.38+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 2 QC2.17 [1.13, 3.07]2.14-0.35 [-2.08, 1.19]3.10 [1.49, 3.98]35% [18%, 59%]70%78%+0.34+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 2 QC2.17 [0.79, 3.17]2.14-0.35 [-2.30, 1.37]3.10 [0.98, 4.05]35% [15%, 66%]70%78%+0.34+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 2 QC2.17 [0.82, 3.24]2.14-0.35 [-2.43, 1.44]3.10 [1.02, 4.09]35% [14%, 62%]70%78%+0.34+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 2 QC2.17 [0.83, 3.27]2.14-0.35 [-2.36, 1.21]3.10 [1.01, 4.18]35% [14%, 64%]70%78%+0.34+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 2 QC2.19 [1.12, 3.21]2.10-0.85 [-2.58, 0.63]3.12 [1.48, 4.14]35% [18%, 62%]70%78%+0.34+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 2 QC2.19 [0.90, 3.27]2.10-0.85 [-2.80, 0.82]3.12 [1.13, 4.26]35% [14%, 72%]70%78%+0.34+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 2 QC2.19 [0.91, 3.34]2.10-0.85 [-2.93, 0.89]3.12 [1.15, 4.28]35% [14%, 69%]70%78%+0.34+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 2 QC2.19 [0.98, 3.42]2.10-0.85 [-2.85, 0.67]3.12 [1.19, 4.31]35% [14%, 67%]70%78%+0.34+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC0.93 [0.60, 1.25]0.92-0.18 [-0.63, 0.20]1.20 [0.71, 1.53]65% [44%, 86%]87%100%+0.58+0.512026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC0.93 [0.55, 1.29]0.92-0.18 [-0.67, 0.25]1.20 [0.63, 1.57]65% [43%, 90%]87%100%+0.58+0.512026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC0.93 [0.55, 1.29]0.92-0.18 [-0.67, 0.28]1.20 [0.63, 1.57]65% [42%, 90%]87%100%+0.58+0.512026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 2 QC0.93 [0.52, 1.33]0.92-0.18 [-0.66, 0.23]1.20 [0.58, 1.59]65% [43%, 93%]87%100%+0.58+0.512026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 2 QC0.96 [0.66, 1.24]0.94-0.17 [-0.56, 0.21]1.22 [0.78, 1.53]57% [40%, 79%]87%96%+0.57+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 2 QC0.96 [0.61, 1.27]0.94-0.17 [-0.59, 0.27]1.22 [0.66, 1.55]57% [39%, 86%]87%96%+0.57+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 2 QC0.96 [0.59, 1.27]0.94-0.17 [-0.58, 0.29]1.22 [0.64, 1.55]57% [38%, 86%]87%96%+0.57+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 2 QC0.96 [0.56, 1.30]0.94-0.17 [-0.57, 0.26]1.22 [0.60, 1.57]57% [38%, 91%]87%96%+0.57+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 2 QC0.91 [0.66, 1.16]0.81-0.48 [-0.85, -0.06]1.15 [0.81, 1.38]61% [48%, 80%]91%100%+0.59+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 2 QC0.91 [0.63, 1.18]0.81-0.48 [-0.85, -0.02]1.15 [0.78, 1.41]61% [48%, 83%]91%100%+0.59+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 2 QC0.91 [0.64, 1.20]0.81-0.48 [-0.87, 0.01]1.15 [0.77, 1.42]61% [43%, 86%]91%100%+0.59+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 2 QC0.91 [0.59, 1.24]0.81-0.48 [-0.86, -0.08]1.15 [0.73, 1.44]61% [43%, 86%]91%100%+0.59+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 2 QC0.96 [0.71, 1.17]0.85-0.46 [-0.84, 0.01]1.19 [0.89, 1.39]61% [41%, 82%]91%100%+0.57+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 2 QC0.96 [0.67, 1.19]0.85-0.46 [-0.88, 0.09]1.19 [0.83, 1.41]61% [40%, 84%]91%100%+0.57+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 2 QC0.96 [0.68, 1.20]0.85-0.46 [-0.88, 0.09]1.19 [0.83, 1.42]61% [38%, 86%]91%100%+0.57+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 2 QC0.96 [0.64, 1.22]0.85-0.46 [-0.88, 0.01]1.19 [0.75, 1.44]61% [35%, 86%]91%100%+0.57+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KLAX, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: +0.39 °F2026-08-09: +0.87 °F2026-08-10: +0.48 °F2026-08-11: +0.44 °F2026-08-12: +0.19 °F2026-08-13: -0.2 °F2026-08-14: -0.74 °F2026-08-15: +1.82 °F2026-08-16: +3.32 °F2026-08-17: +6.05 °F2026-08-18: +1.28 °F2026-08-19: -0.52 °F2026-08-20: +6.42 °F2026-08-21: -1.64 °F2026-08-22: +1.45 °F2026-08-23: -4.58 °F2026-08-24: -2.82 °F2026-08-25: -2.77 °F2026-08-26: -4.51 °F2026-08-27: -2.58 °F2026-08-28: -1.69 °F2026-08-29: +0.83 °F2026-08-30: -0.95 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.95
2026-08-29+0.83
2026-08-28-1.69
2026-08-27-2.58
2026-08-26-4.51
2026-08-25-2.77
2026-08-24-2.82
2026-08-23-4.58
2026-08-22+1.45
2026-08-21-1.64
2026-08-20+6.42
2026-08-19-0.52
2026-08-18+1.28
2026-08-17+6.05
2026-08-16+3.32
2026-08-15+1.82
2026-08-14-0.74
2026-08-13-0.20
2026-08-12+0.19
2026-08-11+0.44
2026-08-10+0.48
2026-08-09+0.87
2026-08-08+0.39

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KLAX, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 6 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 2 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.45 · P90 |e| 4.57 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.006
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.002
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.02 +0.02

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 +0.04 [-1.32, 1.03] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -2.46 [-3.86, -1.16] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.60 [-1.78, 0.49] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 -1.28 [-2.98, 0.11] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAX aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAX (Los Angeles Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAX/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence