Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC4.45 [2.60, 6.90]4.26-0.76 [-3.86, 0.90]6.15 [3.45, 8.11]25% [0%, 50%]38%50%-0.05-0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC4.45 [2.22, 8.40]4.26-0.76 [-6.55, 0.97]6.15 [2.77, 8.71]25% [0%, 50%]38%50%-0.05-0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC4.45 [2.06, 8.13]4.26-0.76 [-4.83, 1.00]6.15 [2.65, 8.71]25% [0%, 50%]38%50%-0.05-0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 1 QC4.45 [1.99, 8.15]4.26-0.76 [-4.97, 1.04]6.15 [2.65, 8.52]25% [0%, 57%]38%50%-0.05-0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 1 QC4.67 [2.83, 6.84]4.61-0.23 [-3.71, 1.63]6.38 [3.57, 8.32]12% [0%, 23%]38%50%-0.10-0.682026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 1 QC4.67 [2.46, 8.33]4.61-0.23 [-6.47, 1.73]6.38 [2.85, 8.71]12% [0%, 25%]38%50%-0.10-0.682026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 1 QC4.67 [2.27, 8.01]4.61-0.23 [-4.84, 1.78]6.38 [2.62, 8.71]12% [0%, 25%]38%50%-0.10-0.682026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 1 QC4.67 [2.15, 8.03]4.61-0.23 [-5.00, 1.94]6.38 [2.50, 8.70]12% [0%, 25%]38%50%-0.10-0.682026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC5.29 [3.68, 6.26]3.47-4.30 [-5.53, -2.79]6.25 [4.45, 7.33]0% [0%, 0%]7%33%-0.28-0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC5.29 [1.86, 6.20]3.47-4.30 [-5.45, -1.86]6.25 [1.93, 7.28]0% [0%, 0%]7%33%-0.28-0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC5.29 [2.06, 6.27]3.47-4.30 [-5.57, -2.06]6.25 [2.18, 7.35]0% [0%, 0%]7%33%-0.28-0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 1 QC5.29 [2.05, 6.25]3.47-4.30 [-5.62, -2.05]6.25 [2.16, 7.28]0% [0%, 0%]7%33%-0.28-0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 1 QC5.18 [3.52, 6.19]3.64-4.04 [-5.36, -2.30]6.24 [4.28, 7.34]0% [0%, 0%]13%33%-0.25-0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 1 QC5.18 [1.63, 6.15]3.64-4.04 [-5.33, -1.63]6.24 [1.64, 7.31]0% [0%, 0%]13%33%-0.25-0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 1 QC5.18 [1.70, 6.24]3.64-4.04 [-5.36, -1.70]6.24 [1.71, 7.40]0% [0%, 0%]13%33%-0.25-0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 1 QC5.18 [1.69, 6.22]3.64-4.04 [-5.48, -1.69]6.24 [1.71, 7.33]0% [0%, 0%]13%33%-0.25-0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC4.70 [2.87, 5.89]4.44+3.11 [1.50, 4.35]5.93 [4.04, 7.05]19% [7%, 45%]25%44%-0.37-0.812026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC4.70 [1.23, 5.92]4.44+3.11 [0.57, 4.41]5.93 [2.02, 7.14]19% [6%, 83%]25%44%-0.37-0.812026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC4.70 [2.41, 5.98]4.44+3.11 [0.79, 4.48]5.93 [3.55, 7.21]19% [5%, 69%]25%44%-0.37-0.812026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 1 QC4.70 [2.41, 6.04]4.44+3.11 [0.86, 4.54]5.93 [3.51, 7.16]19% [0%, 75%]25%44%-0.37-0.812026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 1 QC4.81 [2.97, 6.00]4.58+2.59 [0.94, 3.85]5.88 [3.78, 7.06]19% [7%, 45%]19%31%-0.40-0.872026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 1 QC4.81 [1.38, 6.04]4.58+2.59 [-0.06, 3.97]5.88 [1.90, 7.16]19% [6%, 83%]19%31%-0.40-0.872026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 1 QC4.81 [2.45, 6.14]4.58+2.59 [0.18, 4.03]5.88 [3.14, 7.23]19% [5%, 69%]19%31%-0.40-0.872026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 1 QC4.81 [2.45, 6.14]4.58+2.59 [0.23, 4.06]5.88 [3.14, 7.17]19% [0%, 75%]19%31%-0.40-0.872026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC3.40 [2.43, 4.44]3.13+1.48 [0.43, 2.87]4.06 [2.90, 5.13]7% [0%, 18%]33%47%-0.11-0.442026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC3.40 [2.30, 4.60]3.13+1.48 [0.45, 4.54]4.06 [2.84, 5.14]7% [0%, 20%]33%47%-0.11-0.442026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC3.40 [2.31, 4.60]3.13+1.48 [0.19, 4.48]4.06 [2.79, 5.19]7% [0%, 20%]33%47%-0.11-0.442026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 1 QC3.40 [2.21, 4.60]3.13+1.48 [0.21, 4.48]4.06 [2.72, 5.09]7% [0%, 18%]33%47%-0.11-0.442026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 1 QC3.30 [2.22, 4.39]3.19+0.68 [-0.44, 2.04]3.99 [2.66, 5.17]20% [0%, 44%]20%47%-0.08-0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 1 QC3.30 [2.08, 4.44]3.19+0.68 [-0.50, 3.34]3.99 [2.57, 5.16]20% [0%, 50%]20%47%-0.08-0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 1 QC3.30 [2.05, 4.51]3.19+0.68 [-0.62, 3.25]3.99 [2.54, 5.22]20% [0%, 50%]20%47%-0.08-0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 1 QC3.30 [2.02, 4.38]3.19+0.68 [-0.62, 3.25]3.99 [2.52, 5.13]20% [0%, 50%]20%47%-0.08-0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -8.71 °F2026-08-16: +6.84 °F2026-08-17: -5.91 °F2026-08-18: -2.49 °F2026-08-19: -10.03 °F2026-08-20: -1.54 °F2026-08-21: +16.53 °F2026-08-22: -0.82 °F2026-08-23: -0.13 °F2026-08-24: +4 °F2026-08-25: -4.55 °F2026-08-26: -2.4 °F2026-08-27: +1.3 °F2026-08-28: -4.47 °F2026-08-29: -0.61 °F2026-08-30: +0.89 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.89
2026-08-29-0.61
2026-08-28-4.47
2026-08-27+1.30
2026-08-26-2.40
2026-08-25-4.55
2026-08-24+4.00
2026-08-23-0.13
2026-08-22-0.82
2026-08-21+16.53
2026-08-20-1.54
2026-08-19-10.03
2026-08-18-2.49
2026-08-17-5.91
2026-08-16+6.84
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10-8.71

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 1 day18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.25 · P90 |e| 9.37 °F-200+20 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.001
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08164.45 -0.76

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 -0.52 [-2.83, 6.01] no
NCEP GFS 16 -0.48 [-2.61, 6.52] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -0.92 [-3.31, 4.95] no
Persistence (baseline) 16 +0.20 [-1.30, 5.18] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence