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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Phoenix Sky Harbor · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KPHX · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.06 [1.99, 4.55]2.85-2.30 [-3.87, -1.34]4.02 [2.86, 5.21]37% [17%, 54%]47%63%+0.45+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.06 [1.91, 5.10]2.85-2.30 [-4.60, -1.33]4.02 [2.85, 5.67]37% [0%, 54%]47%63%+0.45+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.06 [1.78, 5.09]2.85-2.30 [-4.94, -1.26]4.02 [2.64, 5.71]37% [0%, 55%]47%63%+0.45+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.06 [1.80, 5.72]2.85-2.30 [-5.72, -1.21]4.02 [2.63, 6.19]37% [0%, 55%]47%63%+0.45+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC3.04 [1.93, 4.55]2.85-2.20 [-3.84, -1.22]3.98 [2.85, 5.23]42% [17%, 69%]47%58%+0.45+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC3.04 [1.89, 5.13]2.85-2.20 [-4.56, -1.23]3.98 [2.84, 5.72]42% [0%, 70%]47%58%+0.45+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC3.04 [1.74, 5.13]2.85-2.20 [-5.00, -1.17]3.98 [2.63, 5.73]42% [0%, 71%]47%58%+0.45+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC3.04 [1.71, 5.71]2.85-2.20 [-5.71, -1.11]3.98 [2.61, 6.18]42% [0%, 74%]47%58%+0.45+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.98 [2.15, 4.05]1.90-2.65 [-3.88, -1.82]3.56 [2.66, 4.53]16% [3%, 25%]42%53%+0.47+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.98 [2.17, 4.57]1.90-2.65 [-4.47, -1.78]3.56 [2.67, 4.89]16% [0%, 25%]42%53%+0.47+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.98 [2.06, 4.86]1.90-2.65 [-4.86, -1.75]3.56 [2.50, 5.08]16% [0%, 25%]42%53%+0.47+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.98 [2.08, 4.45]1.90-2.65 [-4.30, -1.78]3.56 [2.58, 4.78]16% [0%, 25%]42%53%+0.47+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC2.95 [2.13, 3.98]1.91-2.61 [-3.76, -1.70]3.54 [2.67, 4.45]21% [8%, 36%]42%53%+0.47+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC2.95 [2.12, 4.34]1.91-2.61 [-4.34, -1.62]3.54 [2.67, 4.74]21% [4%, 38%]42%53%+0.47+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC2.95 [2.06, 4.60]1.91-2.61 [-4.60, -1.61]3.54 [2.52, 4.90]21% [0%, 39%]42%53%+0.47+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC2.95 [2.06, 4.35]1.91-2.61 [-4.21, -1.63]3.54 [2.58, 4.69]21% [0%, 40%]42%53%+0.47+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.48 [1.86, 4.75]3.33+1.69 [-0.25, 3.66]4.72 [2.44, 6.33]21% [5%, 55%]47%53%+0.39+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.48 [1.46, 4.87]3.33+1.69 [-0.46, 3.97]4.72 [1.89, 6.47]21% [5%, 67%]47%53%+0.39+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.48 [1.52, 4.86]3.33+1.69 [-0.46, 3.99]4.72 [1.84, 6.49]21% [3%, 68%]47%53%+0.39+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.48 [1.27, 4.80]3.33+1.69 [-0.46, 3.99]4.72 [1.65, 6.40]21% [4%, 76%]47%53%+0.39+0.412026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC3.58 [2.12, 4.78]3.24+2.40 [0.68, 4.17]4.89 [2.63, 6.45]21% [7%, 43%]42%58%+0.38+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC3.58 [1.68, 4.91]3.24+2.40 [0.55, 4.49]4.89 [2.17, 6.62]21% [5%, 58%]42%58%+0.38+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC3.58 [1.85, 4.86]3.24+2.40 [0.55, 4.39]4.89 [2.41, 6.65]21% [5%, 50%]42%58%+0.38+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC3.58 [1.69, 4.86]3.24+2.40 [0.55, 4.42]4.89 [2.21, 6.63]21% [0%, 50%]42%58%+0.38+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.05 [1.45, 4.35]2.98+1.11 [-0.92, 3.28]4.43 [1.94, 6.12]26% [13%, 56%]47%68%+0.47+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.05 [0.91, 4.48]2.98+1.11 [-0.96, 3.60]4.43 [1.02, 6.29]26% [12%, 67%]47%68%+0.47+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.05 [0.84, 4.61]2.98+1.11 [-1.02, 3.64]4.43 [0.91, 6.31]26% [11%, 68%]47%68%+0.47+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.05 [0.90, 4.46]2.98+1.11 [-1.08, 3.57]4.43 [0.92, 6.21]26% [11%, 76%]47%68%+0.47+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC3.37 [1.78, 4.86]2.96+2.07 [0.07, 4.22]4.74 [2.08, 6.58]16% [5%, 38%]42%63%+0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC3.37 [1.52, 5.02]2.96+2.07 [0.02, 4.51]4.74 [1.74, 6.73]16% [5%, 50%]42%63%+0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC3.37 [1.56, 5.02]2.96+2.07 [-0.11, 4.56]4.74 [1.73, 6.77]16% [0%, 50%]42%63%+0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC3.37 [1.61, 5.00]2.96+2.07 [-0.10, 4.52]4.74 [1.79, 6.71]16% [0%, 46%]42%63%+0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -6.26 °F2026-08-13: +0.34 °F2026-08-14: -1.29 °F2026-08-15: -0.81 °F2026-08-16: -0.75 °F2026-08-17: -2.99 °F2026-08-18: -6.11 °F2026-08-19: -0.16 °F2026-08-20: +2.18 °F2026-08-21: -0.36 °F2026-08-22: -6.32 °F2026-08-23: -6.65 °F2026-08-24: -6.83 °F2026-08-25: -0.55 °F2026-08-26: -2.82 °F2026-08-27: +0.67 °F2026-08-28: +4.04 °F2026-08-29: -1.57 °F2026-08-30: -7.47 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-7.47
2026-08-29-1.57
2026-08-28+4.04
2026-08-27+0.67
2026-08-26-2.82
2026-08-25-0.55
2026-08-24-6.83
2026-08-23-6.65
2026-08-22-6.32
2026-08-21-0.36
2026-08-20+2.18
2026-08-19-0.16
2026-08-18-6.11
2026-08-17-2.99
2026-08-16-0.75
2026-08-15-0.81
2026-08-14-1.29
2026-08-13+0.34
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-6.26

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHX, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 5 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.18 · P90 |e| 6.69 °F-100+10 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.005
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08193.06 -2.30

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 -2.10 [-3.24, -1.06] yes
NCEP GFS 19 -1.51 [-2.85, -0.27] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -3.54 [-4.91, -1.59] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 -2.52 [-5.65, 1.50] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHX ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHX (Phoenix Sky Harbor), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence